MHH Roundtable Discussion: Fall Check-In – Mile High Hockey

After weathering the injury storm, there are still questions about the true identity of this Colorado Avalanche team. With 19 games behind us, almost a quarter of the 2024-2025 season has already been played and we're unpacking what we've seen so far.

Which new player has impressed you the most?

Adrian: Ivan Ivan will probably be a popular answer to this question, but the recognition is well deserved. Ivan has done exactly what he asked and appears to be right where he belongs in the NHL as part of Colorado's fourth line. It remains to be seen if Landeskog will return, and Ross Colton is out 6-8 weeks (due to the injury), so Ivan Ivan isn't going anywhere. Do you know what that means? He has more time to improve on his five points in 19 games played and further settle into his role with this year's Avalanche team.

Eva: For his injury, I'm going with Ross Colton. He started well and looked like he would be the guy the Avs would rely on if injuries occurred. Of course, he was bitten by the injury bug and is out until sometime next month. Who knows if he'll be the same when he returns from his broken foot, but if he is, it will only help the Avs' point production in the middle six.

Jess: I really like Casey Mittelstadt so far this year. He looked really good and fit in really well on this Colorado team. I'm not at all shocked by his level of play, as what we saw now was exactly what was advertised when it came to him, but the fact that it hasn't shocked me doesn't mean his play hasn't been impressive. He's just a great fit for the team as a whole, and I'm still as happy that he's an Av as I was the day they traded for him last season.

Jackie: Ivan has certainly been the biggest surprise and if he stays long enough to finally graduate, he will be a great success story. There's still a lot of season left, but every day he spends in the NHL he gets closer to the finish line. However, the most impactful new player in my opinion is Sam Malinski. While his production of four points in 19 games is a far cry from the breakout performance he had last spring with 10 points in 23 games, he is in a solid role on the third pair and has had more good moments than bad. The analyzes confirm this with an expected goals percentage of 55.92% at even strength. This also shows that Malinski could play a little more than his current average of 15 minutes per night, which will hopefully increase as the year progresses.

Which skater (non-goalie) needs to improve his game?

Adrian: Take this answer with a grain of salt because I imagine coming back from hip surgery is no easy feat, let alone returning as explosively as before the surgery. Logan OConnor always gave me double takes that usually involved superlatives and comparisons to Nathan MacKinnon. Nowadays he no longer has that same explosiveness and is therefore not as effective in preparation. Logan is at his best when he's flying around, conjuring opportunity out of carefully crafted chaos. Hopefully he gets his legs back and we see him look more like the old LOC.

Eva: Devon Toews feels like a good answer here. Something has been wrong with his play all season: he has only five points in fifteen games with a rating of -6, while his defensive pair Cale Makar has 27 points in 19 games. Jared Bednar has said he has a nagging lower-body injury and has been on a number of maintenance days. If things take a turn for the worse, he'll need to take some time off sooner rather than later to get healthy. If he can continue and get better along the way, he'll have to pull his weight on the blue line that Avs fans know he's capable of.

Jess: I'm going with Miles Wood on this one. Similar to what Adrian talked to Logan OConnor about, it just doesn't seem like the Miles Wood right now is the Miles Wood we all want to see, the one who is just a bowling ball of a player, isn't afraid to play physical, and can give you a little offense here and there. That said, he's clearly recovering from injury, so I'm not shocked that he's not quite looking like himself and it'll probably take some time to get there, which is fine. I hope he gets back to his old self eventually. and I believe he will.

Jackie: This will be an unpopular opinion, but the Avalanche need more from Casey Mittelstadt at even strength. Yes, his 18 points in 19 games are about as many as you can ask for and it was good to see him consistently getting on the board. However, only nine of those points are evenly strong, which is honestly an issue with the rest of the team. Digging a little deeper on the defensive side, however, there are some concerns. Mittelstadt has been on the ice with 26 goals conceded for the team at evens (plus one short goal conceded) with only 14 goals conceded on the ice, which is why he is playing one of the league's worst plus/minus at -13. The analytics are no kinder, showing Mittelstadt with an expected goals percentage of 42.66% at even strength. Of course, Mittelstadt's rotating cast of wingers hasn't helped, but part of being a set-and-forget top six center is the ability to carry a line and stop the bleeding defensively. This is where Mittelstadt can hopefully develop his game as the season progresses.

How would you approach the situation in Net?

Adrian: The Avalanche can't keep dropping games due to sub-par netminding, and the current cast of characters hasn't delivered performances that give me confidence, let alone their club having a competitive advantage. Given the cap crunch, they don't have many options, but they need to find a solution. That almost has to mean a trade, especially with Alexandar Georgiev going to Injured Reserve. The Avalanche don't have to go first this year unless they finish among the bottom 10 teams in the league. They can't afford to move forward at forward with two already recovering, and they don't have a surplus of back-end talent.

Jackie: This situation was not unforeseen with Georgiev's performance last year and the front office solution was to enter the year with the same NHL tandem with only four total goaltenders on NHL contracts. After a half-hearted attempt to make something happen with Kaapo Kahkonen before losing him on waivers, they are back in first place without a true third goaltender in the organization. The immediate need is obviously more stability in net at the NHL level, but it's all part of the same problem. A real upgrade from Georgiev would require dollars and assets they don't have. The Avalanche MO is intended to target older RFAs who have priced themselves out of their current situation but are still on the cusp of a backup salary. No doubt they have been looking for Georgiev's successor for some time, which may need to be addressed this offseason unless Georgiev is involved in a transfer. If the stars don't align for a trade in the near term, that means they'll have to live with the goaltending depth chart as it's constructed. But that won't stop the thousands of John Gibson references before the trade deadline.

Eva: I don't know if the Avalanche can do much in net this season. They are known not to overpay for goalkeepers and ride with what they have. Neither Justus Annunen nor Alexandar Georgiev have been at their best this season, but they have both had their moments. Georgiev probably looked like himself again before he got injured. If they could have kept Kaapo Kahkonen around longer it would have helped their cause, but the Winnipeg Jets were back on waivers for him. The only way I see the Avs addressing the goaltending situation is by making a big move, perhaps with Mikko Rantanen's contract expiring to land a long-term Grade-A netminder. But there's no way something like this could happen. Maybe they move someone like Josh Manson or Sam Girard to bring in a goaltender, but again, I highly doubt it.

Jess: According to Evans, I'm not entirely sure there's much you can do right now if you're the Avs. If you plan on addressing your NHL goal through a trade, it is going to cost you and probably a lot. Your only real options to get an NHL caliber goalie via a trade are John Gibson and maybe a Mackenzie Blackwood, and that's only if the Sharks are willing to make that trade, and even then I'm not sure they want to . The current goaltending market is thin at the moment, but that could change as we get closer to the trade deadline as teams designate themselves as buyers or sellers. Right now I think the easiest option is to live with your current goaltenders. According to Evans, Georgiev was starting to look like himself again before going down with injury, and seemed to have resolved all the issues he faced at the start of the year, which is a very positive sign. Plus, your team defense should theoretically get better with the return of guys like Drouin, Wood, and Nichushkin. If Georgiev can continue to look like his old self and defend the team in front of him well, it may not be a long-term solution, but in the short term it's probably the easiest short-term solution.

Have expectations for the Avalanche changed this season?

Adrian: I know this isn't an in-depth analysis, and it's probably the thinking that got the Avalanche into this current situation, but when you rock the Avalanche logo, every season is about winning a championship. Lord Stanley often takes home the healthiest and well-curated selection. That has not always been true. Look at the 2012 LA Kings or the 1986 Montreal Canadiens. It doesn't always have to be pretty, but it won't be easy and will require elite character and determination. The Avalanche still have that.

Jackie: Have expectations changed, probably not. But should they? Making the playoffs is still a reasonable ask, with three elite players leading the way. But gnashing your teeth to get in is not a mark of a contender. How to reconcile the difference between the two is an answer the Avalanche are still searching for. It's true that a veteran team can do damage in the postseason with a lower seed, and overcoming a little adversity along the way isn't a bad thing. Ultimately, how this team defines and meets expectations will determine how the current core ages, as success is not a given.

Eva: I think expectations have changed somewhat. The slow start, hovering around .500, was when the Avs just had to survive. It shaped the rest of the season. So first and foremost, Colorado just needs to survive and stay as healthy as possible. If this happens, you can get more help as the season progresses, see what's needed at the trade deadline, and step up in the postseason as usual.

Jess: Not at all for me so far. I still expect this team to eventually make the playoffs. My sort of quaint expectation for them at the beginning of the year, while injuries were rampant, was that they would just survive, which they ultimately did. It certainly wasn't pretty, but they survived that stretch and got some really important pieces back on the other side of that stretch, so I was definitely happy about that.