What's in my Google shopping cart?

Jeff Greenfield is a marketer. He has 4 times more followers on LinkedIn than I do. And I would hazard a guess that I have about 10 times more gray matter than me upstairs. Sorry Jeff if 10 seems too low. He was missing a finger and was wearing a shoe. As many of you may know, there are rumors that Google may acquire HubSpot. For no apparent reason (at least not to me), Jeff emailed me asking for my opinion. Hey Jeff, watch him pull a rabbit out of his hat. I don't have anything in particular in mind this time.

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The verbosity of my response absorbed all my thoughts and words. So, I decided to write this column. You will find that Jeff's significant contributions are valuable. Hooray.

First of all, I don't see any silver bullet reasons for this deal. That's why so many people have so many ideas. Jeff's idea makes sense. HubSpot and G Suite are useful. Google had slightly more SMB visits in the hundreds of thousands, slightly less than Ranked List's visits. I still like the idea that we need more to train Google's AI. And a good place to start is with lots of emails. Judy Shapiros' theory that Google needs real people to serve its customers is the best single idea I've ever heard, and it's an amazingly contradictory idea.

But there is no reason to move the needle, individually or collectively. Why this deal? Or why now?

HubSpot is valued at $34 billion. Typically, Google has to pay a 30-40% premium for that. Round to an even number of $50 billion. This is four times the price of the largest acquisition in Google's history. Motorola. This may also be Google's biggest failure. This seemed like a desperate deal to get something at a time when they were worried the mobile world would pass them by.

And I think that leads to Google (possibly) wanting to acquire HubSpot. They think they are really in trouble.

A decline in the value, or interest, in digital quality that runs on the open web would be particularly detrimental to Google. It's a matter of bread, butter, motherhood, apple pie, and the kitchen table. So, if those ads dry up, then most of their business will be lost. And to make matters worse for them, they lose a large portion of their margins.

Google doesn't dominate AI the same way it dominates search. Again, to make matters worse for them, AI is antithetical to their core search business. Search is the mountain, and Google controls who sees the top. That velvet rope is their work. AI flattens the landscape. What would Google be without having to play the SEO game? Whatever it is, it wouldn't be pretty.

The only pile left is the pile of Google's recent failures. The failed rollout of Gemini, the deal with Reddit, the 180-degree pivot of firing employees who didn't like who was buying Google's cloud services, all of which make Google think it has a problem, or so it thinks. This supports this idea.

That means Google is trying to acquire something. anything. Even HubSpot. As a former private equity executive, I know how easy it is to tell yourself why you buy things. i did it. I feel this is what is happening at Google.

If I had the money, it would be for Google to buy Reddit. Much cheaper than HubSpot. It's at the heart of Google's search and AI business.

This is what I replied to Jeff.

Of course, he kindly allowed me to explain his real thoughts and share them here. wonderful. And all that suggests I was barking up the wrong tree.

Remember, Jeff is a marketer. That is, he essentially wants to be in the center of the action, or in the middle of the conversation. The best messages are sent where people are about to buy something.

As customers, we have long accepted a circuitous journey from discovery to purchase. You go to Golf.com, read about the Masters, see an ad for a coffee table book, and rush to Amazon to buy it. Google placed an ad on Golf.com.

Jeff threw this wiffle ball of fact into the air, now my store is on Amazon or Walmart and people are searching there. And he hit it out of the park with an oversized Fango, where people searching completely bypass Google.

Bypass Google. Wowsers. This is larger than the 495 branch line that allows people to bypass Washington, DC.

He added that the same applies to TikTok (TikTok Shop) and that Meta will also expand to direct purchases. As a result, he and we owe him this conclusion: Google needs to be in the last mile of commerce.

Jeff hit some numbers. Costco would also be an option. However, it has become too expensive. BJs Wholesale is a price range on Reddit. That's $10 billion today. He said other options include Shopify and Etsy. Shopify is worth more than $120 billion. Etsy is worth $8 billion.

So let's combine three ideas. Google thinks something needs to be done. buy something Google has a history of making the biggest deals when you think you've reached your limit. It's more likely to be a retail deal than a HubSpot or data/media deal.

Depending on your level of unmedicated anxiety, Google might do something small with you, like Etsy or BJ. Or it could become huge with Costco ($300 billion+) or Shopify ($200 billion+).

Throw another log into the fire. Instacart. shopping and advertising. Also, about $10 billion.

oh. I don't know my own strength. Presto.

Sources 1/ https://Google.com/ 2/ https://uncharles.substack.com/p/dont-miss-our-next-episode The mention sources can contact us to remove/changing this article

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