The Tsunami Study: Feasibility but Expensive

LONG BEACH PENINSULA – If the worst scenario occurs, and a tsunami occurs due to an earthquake along the Cascadia subduction zone with a magnitude of 9.0, do you know what to do and where to go?

For residents of Clipsan Beach, who are located in the central region of the peninsula, a feasibility study completed late last year for Pacific District 1 fire fires shows promise to build a tsunami evacuation tower that could be a safe haven in at least 400 people in the area Surrounding.

In the case of “The Big One”, scientific models show that first waves may reach the coast of the Pacific County in less than 15 to 30 minutes. Such a short time in search of a shelter is especially difficult for Klipsan beach residents, who probably do not have time to vacate the flood area or reach higher ground.

The study, completed by architectural firm Rice Fergus Miller and engineering firm Degenkolb Engineers in November 2019, concluded that a 13.1-acre plot of land owned by the firefighting area on lane 168 appeared suitable for building an evacuation tower. When it is not used for emergency purposes, it will double as a training building for the fire zone.

Built to carry

According to the study, the height of the evacuation tower shelter level would be 50 feet, which is comfortably higher than the expected immersion depth of the design, according to the modeling. The ICA code requires that shelter levels be set at least 10 feet above immersion depth, and the height of the tower shelter level can be improved once site-specific immersion modeling is completed at any future design stage.

The evacuation tower will also include a medium level that is also set above the expected immersion height. Since it may take up to two weeks for emergency responders to reach the peninsula, this level will include closed, weather-resistant storage rooms for emergency supplies.

Besides basic supplies, the tower will also include a certain level of permanent shelter from the elements if a long wait is required to be rescued. After one punch for both the earthquake and the tsunami, the study said, there is no way to know how much the land below the tower is habitable.

“Unlike other areas along the Washington State coast that have higher regions of the earth within close proximity after an event that will likely have residual shelter infrastructure, there may be people evacuated on the platforms for a long time, indicating a degree of shelter Perpetual out of the wind the study said “Be careful.”

The study also takes into account the elderly of the peninsula above average when it comes to accessibility. In addition to being wide enough to fit two people comfortably climbing at the same time, the stairs will have a height less than usual just six inches, and a larger than usual tread line of 12 inches. The tower will also provide a ramp for use instead of stairs to reach higher levels.

There is still a big and expensive hurdle

The study also determined the estimated costs necessary to implement the project. Simply, not cheap.

The study estimates that the design, engineering and construction of the evacuation tower will cost about $ 8 million on the low end and $ 13.5 million at the highest level, with annual maintenance costs of around $ 12,000 once construction is completed.

The fire department said in its final report that the estimated cost of the tower “is much greater than what is understood” when examining the cost of other local evacuation structures, such as a tower in Tokelands.

“This construction project will be a tremendous financial challenge for a much larger municipal governing agency, let alone a fire zone,” the final report of the fire sector said.

Even with the Federal Emergency Management Agency and the Washington State Department of Military Administration having up to 75% to 90% of the total project cost through matching grants and funds, it will still leave the local cost anywhere from $ 800,000 to $ 3.38 million.

Brad Weatherby, assistant chief firefighter for Pacific Fire District 1, said the gap between the grant amount and the necessary local match was “too big for our agency”.

“In addition, it is not on the list of core service responsibilities,” said Weizzer in an email to the Observer. “We were ready to use the minimal resources to explore the idea and start a conversation of what is possible. In short, these grants are directed to municipalities and provinces.”

The firefighting area managed to move forward with the study after coordinating with government and federal officials in 2019 to secure a grant of $ 120,000.

Worth the cost

While the price of the project seems high, the study found that the total benefit of the evacuation tower – in terms of the lives it could save – was worth the cost.

Of the approximately 760 people living one mile from the evacuation tower at the 168th Lane, benefit cost analysis anywhere from 349 to 454 people – depending on the severity of the earthquake – predicts survival because they were able to reach the tower in time. Without the constellation, the analysis predicts that 682 to 750 people living in a one mile area would be killed.

Altogether, the project benefits come to $ 65.1 million in savings, which is 4.8 times higher than the project cost and well above the 1.0 threshold to be eligible for FEMA funding.

The interest-to-cost ratio is very high, according to the study, for several reasons: The entire assembly area of ​​the evacuation tower is located within the tsunami flood area; Models by Washington University officials indicate that first-wave arrival will strike less than 30 minutes after the earthquake began; It is almost impossible to evacuate vehicles due to roads badly damaged by the earthquake, as well as falling power lines and debris from collapsed buildings.

The analysis concluded that “given the factors mentioned above, the mortality rate without the proposed tsunami for vertical evacuation would be an extremely high imperative.”

While the feasibility study has shown promise to build an evacuation tower at the current site, millions of dollars needed at the local level have an indefinite pending project. According to Weatherby, the final report of the fire brigade, feasibility study, and other grant deliveries have been sent to the Washington Emergency Management Department and FEMA.

If the funding is raised, it is expected that the process of converting the evacuation tower into reality will take several years. The building will be the first of its kind on Long Beach Peninsula, and the first of eight towers recommended by the Safe Haven Project, conducted by Washington University in 2011, to be built on the peninsula.

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