The new system should keep everyone alert after the initial shaking subsides

Yomiuri Shimbun

16:51 JST, January 6, 2023

It is necessary to keep in mind that one strong earthquake can be followed by another, even stronger one. It is important to remain alert even after the initial shaking has subsided.

The Japan Meteorological Agency has decided to issue a warning when an earthquake of magnitude 7 or greater strikes along the Japan Trench or Chishima Trench in the Pacific Ocean off the coast from Hokkaido to the Tohoku region, calling for vigilance against a possible aftershock that could be stronger than the first.

In and around the trenches, there was a case where a strong earthquake was followed by an even more massive earthquake: the Great East Japan Earthquake of 2011. A 7.3-magnitude earthquake occurred on March 9 of that year, and it did not cause serious damage. However, a 9-magnitude earthquake hit eastern Japan two days later.

Even if the initial earthquake is small, it is important to be prepared for a possible subsequent earthquake like the one that occurred in 2011. In the event of an earthquake along the Japan Trench or the Chishima Trench, it is estimated that around 100,000 people could die in a worst-case scenario. It would be helpful for the agency to issue warnings of such potential events.

Because magnitude 7 quakes occur relatively frequently in and around the trenches, a warning about a possible aftershock is expected to be issued about every two years, according to the agency. However, the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater actually occurring within a few days after the warning is issued is still believed to be as low as once in 100 occasions.

Therefore, it can be said that most of the warnings will most likely end up as false alarms. How information containing such uncertainty should be handled, and how well one should prepare for a possible aftershock, are difficult questions. It is hoped that the government will educate the public on what these guidelines mean in an easy-to-understand manner.

The more time passes after an earthquake, the less likely an aftershock will occur. When an advisory is issued, residents will be encouraged to take measures over the next week or so, such as fixing furniture in place and checking evacuation routes, and otherwise carrying on with normal life.

People will also be encouraged to pack clothing and personal belongings to keep at their side while they sleep so they can evacuate immediately in the event of an emergency. This may not be particularly stressful, as long as such steps are only recommended for several days after the initial earthquake.

A massive earthquake is also expected in the Nankai Basin, which stretches along an area off the coast of the Pacific Ocean from the Tokai regions to the Kyushu regions. If this earthquake occurs and a second quake is considered imminent, residents along the coasts will be urged to evacuate in advance.

On the contrary, under the new post-earthquake advisory system for the Japan Trench and Chishima Trench, residents will not be required to evacuate in advance but will be encouraged to maintain social and economic activities because magnitude VII tremors occur frequently there.

If the warnings end up being false alarms over and over again, some people may get used to it and consider the preparations meaningless. However, the guard should never be lowered.

Knowing today, it is difficult to issue an advisory report that is accurate enough to qualify as a prediction. Severe earthquakes without any precursors are sure to continue to occur in the future. It is hoped that the public will make good use of the advisory system as an opportunity to help themselves be better prepared for emergencies, little by little.

(From the Yomiuri Shimbun, January 6, 2023)

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