Political earthquake in Texas: The oligarchy cracked in Austin on Tuesday

In most places, Super Tuesday was quiet, as Joe Biden and Donald Trump continued their widely expected march toward their parties' nominations.

Texas was a big exception.

The Lone Star State's Republican primary witnessed a political earthquake, including unprecedented losses of office. At least 12 legislative seats and three statewide elected judges have shifted to the right. A runoff in the May 28 election could bring further aftershocks, including even the loss of state House Speaker Dade Phelan.

The direct causes are many. They include the politically myopic impeachment of Attorney General Ken Paxton (R) last year, school choice and election integrity issues statewide, and a host of local concerns.

But more importantly, this happened because the powers that be in the state capital lost control of the rules of the game they had previously used largely to ward off popular accountability.

Texas has a reputation as a conservative state, but that's overrated. Historically, conservatism in Texas has been “pro-business” rather than pro-principles or “pro-market.” It gravitates towards political and economic power controlled by a small minority that ruthlessly resists attempts at reform.

Under this system, collusion between business and government flourished, protecting the profits of incumbent companies from competition. This localized form of protectionism, combined with old-school political patronage in the state's education system (particularly in rural areas of the state), has created a remarkably entrenched and stable power structure over the decades, which even survived the state's late twentieth-century reorganization of Democrat to Republican.

Texans don't typically monitor the workings of their state government closely; very few Americans do. This has allowed lawmakers to protect themselves for decades using established rules of the game. First, they typically engage in three to five days of right-wing theatrics during each 140-day legislative session, passing enough bills on social issues to fill the back of a campaign mailer. They then spend the rest of their scarce legislative time consolidating their power on behalf of the oligarchs in Austin.

But in the past few years, this balance has become unsustainable. First, the COVID-19 pandemic has given parents an unprecedented glimpse into the farce of what public education has become. School closures showed a lack of concern for families. Radical approaches revealed. All of this created an unprecedented demand from parents for school choice, which clashed with the political patronage system of public education. So when Gov. Greg Abbott (R) made a late push for school choice in 2023, parents paid close attention to which side lawmakers chose.

Second, a 2021 ruling by Texas' highest criminal court invalidated a 1951 law that allowed the state's attorney general to prosecute election fraud cases. This law was passed after Johnson's well-documented 1948 “landslide” to steal the US Senate election.

The case, Texas v. Stevens, revolves around illegal campaign donations in an East Texas mayor's race, which the local district attorney has declined to prosecute. In its ruling, the court offered a questionable interpretation of the separation of powers doctrine to claim that Paxton was usurping a judicial function and therefore had no jurisdiction to pursue the case himself.

The practical effect was that only local prosecutors, who were often complicit in this type of scheme, could prosecute them. At the time, the Attorney General's Office had dozens of pending investigations into illegal ballot harvesting and illegal voting, which it was forced to abandon as a result.

The merits of this ruling were already questionable, but it was particularly politically tone-deaf, as many Republican primary voters believe the 2020 election was rigged against Trump (though not in Texas, clearly). This has given greater importance to election integrity issues in general.

Then came Paxton's impeachment in 2023. Paxton, a former lawmaker, was always at odds with the Austin oligarchy. This tension has already led to aggressive attempts to defeat him electorally in 2014 and 2022. When those efforts failed, they ambushed Paxton with allegations of corruption. The Texas House followed suit and fired Paxton over Memorial Day weekend.

Given the inherent weakness of the impeachment charges, Paxton, predictably, beat the rap once it was publicly aired in his Senate trial. But the political damage to those who supported impeachment had already been done by then. Paxton has emerged from his acquittal stronger than ever, empowered to hold accountable those who supported his impeachment and removal.

These three factors combined to raise the profile of the Texas Republican Party's legislative primaries to an unprecedented degree. Voters showed a lot of interest for once, and the results speak for themselves.

In Tuesday's primary, the three Court of Criminal Appeals judges who were on the ballot lost. At least six anti-school choice Republicans (most of them rural) were defeated, and several are headed to runoffs. At least 12 Republicans who voted to impeach Paxton lost renomination. A number of others are headed to runoff rounds.

It is worth noting that Texas House Speaker Dade Phelan faces a runoff. Although Phelan is largely viewed as a puppet of the Austin lobby, he was nonetheless the public face of the Paxton trial. In addition, Phelan provided political cover for anti-school choice Republicans and helped consolidate Democratic influence in the House. Phelan will defend his Beaumont seat against local activist David Coffey, who is supported by Donald Trump, in a runoff scheduled for May 28.

Tuesday night was a major blow to crony capitalism and political cronyism in Texas. And in 2025, when the Texas Legislature next convenes, it will include at least a dozen new members, who don't fit the traditional mold. This number may rise further, depending on the results of the runoff in May. Austin's lobbyists, who are well served by the status quo, would be wise to take notice.

Adam was an Austin-based activist and former political blogger.

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