Economic damage from the powerful Tokyo earthquake could exceed 1,000 trillion yen

A committee of the Japan Society of Civil Engineers has revised its estimates of economic damage from a powerful earthquake that occurred directly beneath the Tokyo area. It says long-term damage to the economy and assets could exceed 1,000 trillion yen, or roughly $6.8 trillion.

The committee used new data to revise assessments it made six years ago of major disasters in Japan.

In its 2018 assessment, the committee said damage from a major earthquake in Tokyo could reach 778 trillion yen, or more than $5.25 trillion, over 20 years.

The latest estimate of 1,001 trillion yen increased by 223 trillion yen, or nearly 30 percent. This figure does not include the impact of post-disaster reconstruction work.

Investing 21 trillion yen or more to improve public infrastructure, such as roads and ports, could reduce damage by 369 trillion yen, the committee said.

Experts have determined how much harm people could suffer, said Fuji Satoshi, a professor at Kyoto University, who chairs a subcommittee of the commission.

He expressed his hope that people would clearly realize the seriousness of such a situation and realize that preparing for a disaster would reduce the damage.

A government committee estimates there is a 70 percent chance of an earthquake measuring 7 on the Richter scale hitting directly under the capital within 30 years.

In 2013, the government released its assessment of potential damage based on a scenario of a 7.3 magnitude tremor under the southern area of ​​the capital. The focus of such an earthquake would be within the Philippine Sea plate.

Violent tremors are expected to shake Tokyo and the surrounding prefectures.

If this happened during a stormy winter evening, an estimated 610,000 homes and other buildings could be destroyed or burned.

The death toll may reach 23 thousand. Of them, 16,000 people, or 70 percent, may die from the fires.

An additional 123,000 people will be injured, 58,000 will need rescue, and up to 7.2 million will need to be evacuated.

The earthquake would also paralyze water and electricity supplies and cause traffic chaos.

You will see severe congestion on the roads in central Tokyo for weeks. Rail services will be suspended for a period of one week to one month. There will also be serious shortages of food, water and fuel.

In 2018, a Society of Civil Engineers committee estimated that a massive earthquake in the Nankai Basin off western Japan would cause economic damage of 1,410 trillion yen, or $9.5 trillion.

The Committee is also reviewing this estimate.

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