UK's political earthquake: what it means for growth, the pound and public finances | Articles

The UK has voted, the polls are out, and the outcome looks clear: Labour will govern with a solid majority for the next five years. If the polls are accurate—and history suggests they will be—Labour is on course for a majority of around 170 seats. The current Conservative Party, which won an 80-seat majority at the last election in 2019, is expected to see its seats fall to just 131 from 365 five years ago.

It is no surprise that financial markets have remained steady, given that opinion polls have been little changed since the election was announced six weeks ago. The pound has not reacted at all to the exit polls.

In stark contrast to the political events across the Channel in France, the UK election has seemed like a foregone conclusion for months. This lack of market volatility is a welcome change after a series of political upheavals. It is also a stark contrast to the last election in 2019, when financial markets had to contend with uncertainty over the UK’s future trading relationship with the EU, the risks of a second referendum in Scotland, and some bold fiscal policy pledges. None of that was true in this campaign.

Of course, investors have not forgotten the 2022 “mini-budget” crisis and unfunded tax pledges that sent a worrisome ripple through government bond markets. Since then, risk premiums on government bonds have fallen significantly. There is a recognition that UK politicians are likely to be cautious in dealing with bond markets, whoever wins this election.

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