Experts warn of potential chemical risks in imminent Istanbul earthquake

Salim Ozum / Newspaper Wall

On August 17, the Istanbul branch of the Chamber of Chemical Engineers (KMO) published a report titled “Hazards of Chemicals after an Earthquake in Istanbul”.

The report coincided with the 25th anniversary of the Marmara earthquake, a 7.4-magnitude quake that struck the Marmara region of northwestern Turkey in 1999 and killed at least 18,000 people.

The report acknowledged the years that have passed since then, and drew attention to the chemical risks associated with the “Great Istanbul Earthquake” that experts warn is imminent.

The report included predictions and analyses of secondary risks that could arise from chemicals in the city after a potential earthquake.

The report stressed that the exact amount of chemicals produced, transported, stored and consumed in Istanbul in a single year remains unknown. It noted that there is no central institution to collect this data, making risk assessments only “estimates” at best.

The analysis detailed the risks of secondary disasters, including fires, explosions, chemical and gas leaks, floods, epidemics, and environmental pollution, that could result from chemical stockpiles in the city after an earthquake.

The report noted that 50 tons of diesel fuel leaked into the Gulf of Izmit following the Marmara earthquake on August 17, 1999, which led to an increase in the concentration of toxic materials in the Gulf over time.

The accident scenarios and models included in the report warned that damage or leakage from toluene diisocyanate (TDI) tanks stored in Istanbul and Kocaeli during the earthquake could cause permanent organ damage, respiratory problems, asthma attacks and skin irritation. The report stated that all living organisms within 50 meters of the TDI tank would die, with the risk extending to 80 meters.

A similar model was created for LPG tanks in the Ambarlı, Marmara Ereglisi, Kocaeli Yarimca and Korfez districts of the Marmara Region. According to this model, the explosion could generate a fireball as high as 1,000 meters. The thermal energy from this fireball could be felt by anyone 2,500 meters away from the tank, causing fatalities and first-degree burns.

The report concluded with potential solutions and recommendations. Accordingly, local officials were encouraged to establish a “hazardous chemicals inventory” at the regional and national levels to identify the quantities of emissions and waste at each stage of production, with an emphasis on protecting lives and property during natural disasters and potential accidents.

In addition, chemical production and storage facilities should be moved outside the city, away from residential areas or areas prone to flooding.

The capacity of the Istanbul Fire Department to respond to chemical incidents has been enhanced.

Istanbul is expected to be hit by an earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7.0 on the Richter scale within the next six years with a 64% probability, according to Professor Doğan Kalafat, director of the Regional Earthquake and Tsunami Tracking Center of the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute.

Most experts stressed that the earthquake could lead to catastrophic destruction and great human losses if current urban policies continue.

The latest reports from the Istanbul Planning Agency (IPA), which operates under the supervision of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality, indicate that 20 percent of Istanbul's buildings will be severely damaged, and that 1.3 million of the city's 6.8 million buildings are at risk of collapse in a 7.5-magnitude earthquake.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu said 90,000 buildings in the megacity are at risk of complete collapse and the cost of making them earthquake-resistant could exceed 360 billion liras.

(English version by Ayse Toptas)

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