Study shows fault line stress could increase earthquake risk in Los Angeles

High stress levels on fault lines beneath Los Angeles could increase the risk of an earthquake in the near future, according to a study conducted in June by researchers from the University of Hawaii at Manoa.

According to a June study, tectonic stress buildup in the northern part of the Cajon Corridor — where the San Andreas and San Jacinto faults meet — is higher than ever before. The research derived data from simulations of earthquakes that occurred within the past 1,000 years.

The two sides, which fall under the LA and have not ruptured together since 1812, have come under additional pressure since the recent rupture.

“Part of the reason we have mountains and it’s a nice place to live is because we have plate boundaries, and there are earthquakes,” said Scott Brandenberg, professor of civil and environmental engineering. “We just need to know it and be prepared.”

The results of the June study will allow people to understand how faults work, said Jonathan Stewart, the SAPOL Scott Chair in Civil and Environmental Engineering at UCLA’s Samueli School of Engineering. He added that this does not mean that people are less safe than before.

The Seismic Safety Program — which oversees university-wide guidelines for evaluating buildings and setting safety standards — works with UC campuses to identify and address buildings most at risk, Stewart said.

“Safety comes down primarily to the quality of the buildings we live in and the quality of the infrastructure we rely on,” said Stewart, vice president of the UC office of the President’s Earthquake Advisory Council.

Brandenburg said cost is a major barrier to strengthening the building’s structure.

The Los Angeles City Council passed a seismic retrofit ordinance in 2015, mandating that structures built before 1978 with weak or open front wall lines and older types of concrete be improved.

Strengthening the building structure also has sustainability implications, Brandenberg said.

“It seems like we always have to be there for safety,” Brandenberg said. “But there are costs, and there is a carbon footprint. If someone knocks down a building and rebuilds it, that means a lot of new building materials.”

Limited government funding also presents a challenge for the earthquake safety program, Stewart said. Estimated construction costs for seismic improvement across campuses are $6.7 billion, according to the UCLA Seismic Safety Funding Overview.

UCLA’s off-campus buildings have less support against earthquakes — especially its small medical clinics around Los Angeles, Stewart said.

“UCLA’s portfolio as a whole has a lot of seismic vulnerabilities,” he said. “But when we just look at the campuses where the students are located, they’ve done a good job, given the resources they have, of trying to bend the arc of earthquake resilience in the right direction.”

Alton Wu, a rising fourth-year civil engineering student, said he is not concerned about the results of the June study because he has seen structural engineering companies fortify vulnerable buildings firsthand.

“We’re not waiting for a big earthquake to happen,” said Wu, who works at structural consulting firm Seaful Bouquet. “We always design for this earthquake, so I wouldn’t be too concerned if there was an earthquake.”

However, Wu said he believes some companies in the structural engineering industry are promoting buildings too late.

“People don’t care until (the earthquake) happens, and then when it happens, people invest money in fixing it,” Wu said. “You’re being reactive instead of being proactive, which is why we always need to pay attention.”

Having enough drinking water in preparation for an earthquake is important because potential leaks in sewer lines can contaminate tap water, Stewart said. He added that an earthquake caused by the San Andreas Fault could lead to the cutting of the main channels that transport water.

Brandenberg added that people should secure their furniture before an earthquake strikes, and stock up on canned foods because transportation and services may be disrupted.

Brandenberg said people should get down and cover themselves to protect their bodies during the earthquake.

“Studies like this show that the pressures are actually very high based on modeling… and may put earthquake safety at the forefront again,” Brandenberg said.

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