This is not 1999 | Find Alpha

If you live in Southern California, you know Dr. Lucy Jones. Many people here know her as “The Earthquake Lady”. It earned the title because, as one of the world’s leading seismologists, Jones always appears on the news with analyzes after an earthquake. Often times it doesn’t show up after mild earthquakes (thankfully) it doesn’t do more than shake people’s nerves. She explains what happened by focusing on the general science of earthquakes, especially probability and predisposition.

Lucy Jones thinks being prepared is your best defense against an earthquake.

They reverberate in post-earthquake messages not just because they calm anxiety, but because they connect them with clear, conversational tone. It does not give up. She is assertive, but sympathetic. Realistic, but not over the top with unhelpful gloom and torment. While Southern Californians madly respect her knowledge and authority, they love Lucy Jones because she tells her as she is, in plain language.

I wish she had a wider national theater (I don’t think that’s her style) because she was one of the most logical voices throughout the pandemic.

In addition to her fondness for being prepared, there’s one more thing Jones often says that rings with me that also applies to investing:

In the seconds after the earthquake struck, thousands of Southern California residents updated Lucy Jones’ Twitter feed. (I’m not one of them!) They are anxious and afraid. They want to know what happens next. However, this is not possible. Lucy Jones doesn’t even know what will happen next.

Jones often relates these parts of scientific wisdom:

Uncertainty and lack of pattern make humans anxious. As a result, humans look for patterns to understand anxiety-inducing events and situations. Even when there is no pattern, people tend to stick to it anyway, because it makes them feel better.

Jones routinely drops earthquake myths, such as the misconception that something called seismic weather exists or that an earthquake on the other side of the world will trigger an earthquake in California.

“Play the ball, don’t let the ball play your turn”

Speaking of wisdom, this is what my favorite baseball coach, Mr. Timan, has been telling us.

This also applies to the stock market. You cannot control the stock market, but do not let it control you.

There is nothing in common between 1999 and 2020.

There is nothing in common between 2008 and 2020.

If the stock market continues to decline, crash, or do something other than keep going up in general, it won’t be due to valuations.

However, for the same reasoning that Jones applies to the human reaction to earthquakes, investors tend to make 2020 all about the things they are familiar with – 1999, 2008 and evaluation. Although there is not an iota of evidence to support these links.

You could write a crooked article with every graph and graph showing every technical indicator in the world and you would still be wrong. You can write a comment doing the same – likewise.

Most of the people comparing 1999 to 2008 and 2020 tend to simultaneously subscribe to the evaluation argument. They will argue that big-name tech stocks like Cisco Systems (CSCO) and IBM (IBM) crashed in and around 2000, so no one is immune to a bubble. I can’t believe I have to even handle this. If it doesn’t happen often, I’ll save myself time and space.

Nobody thinks this is not 1999 arguing that technology stocks, by and large across the board, did not collapse in the year 2000. They did. It is an objective fact. Everything went down. Procter & Gamble (PG) was priced at $ 56.45 on Thanksgiving Day 1999. By the end of March 2020, it was trading for $ 28.16. I can continue to provide examples. There was widespread massacre.

A drop in stocks in light of a market downturn, correction, or crash is not the result of a bubble. Again, this happens. Stocks breathe – sometimes sharp and long, sometimes soft and temporary. This is how the stock market works.

Companies that have not had a real or sustainable business yet have received millions of investment capital outside of business. This is the result of the bubble. It is the bubble. Pets.com. Weibvan. Startups.com. Cosmo. Boo.com. Stir @ home page. The list goes on.

Some companies, notably Webvan, were ahead of their time and expanded very quickly. We’ve also seen exciting successes, such as the sale of Mark Cuban on Broadcast.com to Yahoo.

As I indicated in preparation for the stock market crash:

The tech sector leading the way today is unlike the tech sector that led the way for a while in 1999. Actually, it’s not really the tech sector. Today’s leaders are real companies doing real things that drive real trends and outright transformations and revolutions.

Think about every company. Ask yourself what they are doing and their impact on real life today and it will keep moving forward.

Zoom in (ZM). Apple (AAPL). Netflix (NFLX). Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL). Amazon.com (AMZN). Starbucks (SBUX). Domino’s Pizza (DPZ). Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG). Chew (CHWY). Here is a partial list from the top of my head in 15 seconds. And I’m not even going to list the companies that build and maintain the systems to make all the things that these companies do possible.

Don’t try to make contact or find a pattern in which no one is. This may make you feel better, but it is not a suitable substitute for preparing and controlling what you already have. You cannot prevent the market from falling or predict when and how much this will happen, but you can put yourself in a place where you do not get hurt, but rather benefit from it.

this is what I do

I am tall AT&T (T) and buy more. I love space. I also like increasing profits and want to expand my exposure. So I am planning to add Verizon (VZ) to my earnings growth portfolio. It recently announced another increase in profits.

But here’s the deal. I don’t care what VZ trades. It actually went up last week. I buy it for two reasons: It’s well located for its space and it’s making good money. With a long-term vision and a plan to hold it while constantly reinvesting – and possibly living someday – dividends, I don’t have to worry about the stock price. It is illogical. In 2030 when I evaluate my earnings income, I will not think very carefully about what I purchased a VZ for in 2020.

This is part of the beauty of investing in profit growth. We can seize the opportunities, which is what I plan to do as well (say, Apple (AAPL)), but I wouldn’t hesitate to open trades in stocks that were relatively strong during this correction – or whatever.

And I’ll add to those types of stocks as well. I’ll buy more from Starbucks (SBUX) this week. It also rose last week. It pulled back from its highs, but ended the week as strong as Verizon. And I don’t care what any of these stocks do in this brief trading week.

Buy stocks in strong companies that are paying attractive and escalating dividends. The hype and hysteria mean nothing to me. If more people enthusiastically committed to investing in profit growth, there would be far less hysteria and noise. That would be a good thing.

be ready. Be ready for action. This should be the focus of your investment interest, not trying to draw parallels where none. And even when there are similarities, your strategy should still not change. This is because you are committed to buying mature companies to invest in bull markets, bear markets, and everything and anything in between.

Disclosure: I / we do not have any trades in any of the mentioned stocks, but we may start a long position in VZ within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself and it expresses my opinions. I am not receiving compensation for this (other than an alpha request). I do not have any business relationship with any company whose shares are mentioned in this article.

Extra disclosure: I am tall AAPL and SBUX.

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