Greece-Turkey earthquake is driven by onshore tectonics in the Aegean Sea

On October 30, when a 7.0 magnitude earthquake struck under the Aegean Sea, dozens of buildings collapsed and water surged into the streets of the coastal city of Izmir, Turkey, and on the island of Samos, Greece. At least 14 people were killed and more than 400 injured.

This region is no stranger to earthquakes, with a written record of tectonic devastation spanning centuries. But while many earthquake-prone places around the world can trace their seismic activity to the confluence of only two major tectonic plates, the situation is much more chaotic around the Aegean Sea. The source of all vibrations is a complex geological saw that forms the area, cut by a network of faults.

“This is definitely one of the most complex regions in the world,” says Joao Duarte, a marine geologist from the Dom Louise Institute at the University of Lisbon.

Laura Gregory, an earthquake researcher at the University of Leeds in the United Kingdom, says the tectonic complexity behind these events makes it difficult to understand the risks in the region.

“There isn’t a single big mistake that we can focus on, but instead, there are many errors over a huge area, most of which can cause a devastating earthquake like today,” she told National Geographic through direct messages on Twitter.

Squeezed like a seed

Several changing plate tectonics and other seismic forces play a major role in the region for frequent earthquakes. A magnitude 7 earthquake previously struck near the city of Izmir in 1688. The earthquake dramatically changed the landscape as the roof fell by more than a foot, shaky buildings collapsed and lit fires – killing up to 16,000 people.

In 1903, an 8.2 magnitude earthquake struck near the Greek island of Kythira, which is one of the largest earthquakes in the Mediterranean recorded by modern seismic instruments. Between 1993 and 1999, multiple devastating earthquakes of 7.0 magnitude struck along the northern region of the Anatolian Plate, the main tectonic portion that lies beneath Turkey.

Geologically, this area is sandwiched between the area where the African, Eurasian and Arab plates meet. To the east of the Aegean Sea, the Arabian plate collides with the Eurasian Plate, pushing a series of mountains including Zagros, a chain that runs through Iran, Iraq and Turkey. Colliding plates also send the Anatolian plate westward, as if “pushed outward like a melon seed between two fingers,” says Robert Stern, a tectonics expert at the University of Texas at Dallas.

The last earthquake struck approximately 13 miles below the floor of the Aegean Sea, about nine miles off the shore of Samos. This relatively shallow depth meant a strong tremor was felt both on the Greek island and in the cities along the Turkish coast. The epicenter is on the western edge of the Anatolian Plate, where the rocks are stretched to the surface like putty. This expansion results in a series of fractures deep in the ground, and movement along one of these fissures triggered the last earthquake.

Why this region extends so far apart is “a matter of great debate,” says Izgi Karasuzin, a seismologist at the Seismological Center in Alaska, whose research has focused on earthquakes in Iran and Turkey, via email. There is likely a combination of three major forces behind the extension, she notes.

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One source comes from the effect of watermelon seeds, which causes what Karasozen calls “tectonic escape”. As the larger Arabian and Eurasian plates move around the Anatolian Plate, the crustal rocks are pushed and pressed.

Another major source of stretching is known as plate recoil, which occurs when one of the tectonic plates curls down under the other and into the mantle, says Robin Lacassin of the Physical Institute de Globe de Paris in a direct message on Twitter. You can visualize the board sagging by placing your left hand flat on the top of your right and then slowly rolling the fingers of your right hand – this is the plank falling back and down in depth.

This movement pulls on the top plate, and the resulting expansion is called “plate suction,” says Duarte, because the bottom plate mainly absorbs surface rocks. This process occurs when the African plate sinks below the western half of the Anatolian Plate, under the Aegean Sea.

The other force acting can be fairly simple: gravity. The center of the Anatolian Plate is thick, which means “everything wants some kind of sinking and expanding around the edges,” says Gregory.

Now scientists are puzzled by this latest event, Karasusen says, an unusually large event for the region in which it occurred. As teams monitor the aftershocks, which continue to penetrate, the data promises to help future scientists better understand the risks woven into the region’s land tectonics. Only by studying both past and current events can scientists hope to improve their understanding of the risks around the Aegean Sea and, perhaps, someday, predict future earthquakes.

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