Health
Coronavirus Scotland: Why is the infection increasing when 85% of Scotland have antibodies?
Coronavirus According to the latest surveillance, the proportion of Scotland continues to skyrocket despite more than 8 out of 10 having Covid antibodies.
The· National Bureau of Statistics Also, Scotland England has narrowed and it is estimated that 84.7% of Scottish people will have Covid antibodies by the week until June 20th, compared to 89.8% in England.
Previously there was a gap of about 10%, and Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon said it was a factor explaining why Scotland’s Covid rate was higher than the rest of the UK and Tayside was ranked the worst in the world in Europe. It was. health Organization.
The ONS antibody surveillance study is based on collecting blood samples from thousands of people living in the community and testing their antibodies.
This data is then used to estimate an estimate of the overall prevalence of antibodies across the population.
read more: Why Delta mutants left herd immunity with mathematically impossible vaccination
Antibodies may be present in the blood as a result of vaccination or as a result of a previous Covid infection, but this does not necessarily mean that the person is immune.
From India, there is some evidence that people who were previously infected with Covid by a strain of virus other than Delta were re-infected after the Delta mutant began to spread there.
Coupled with low vaccination rates, it is believed that this may explain why high exposure to the early population of the pandemic did not ease India from the dramatic second wave.
In addition, a single vaccination person may test positive for antibodies, but still has a relatively high risk of infection.
The University of Edinburgh’s EAVE II project, which is tracking the development of vaccination, estimates that a single vaccination with AstraZeneca or Pfizer poses a low risk of symptomatic infection with the Delta strain 28 days or more after vaccination It will decrease by 33%.
Even two weeks after the second dose, protection is 83% (Pfizer) and 61% (AstraZeneca).
To date, 63% of Scottish adults have been fully vaccinated.
Concerns have also been raised that the emergence of new, more contagious variants has “moved the goal post” in achieving herd immunity.
read more: Jason Leitch explains why Scotland is at the top of the list of Covid rates in Europe
Professor Devi Sridal, chair of the University of Edinburgh’s Global Public Health and Scottish Government adviser on Covid-19, told the BBC: Immune Threshold-Move higher. ”
The calculation of the herd immunity threshold is based on an equation that takes into account the R number of the virus in the absence of mitigation measures and the effectiveness of the vaccine against infection.
In the case of the original Wuhan strain, it was estimated that about 75% of the total population would have to be fully vaccinated to reach herd immunity.
For the Alpha (Kent) strain (estimated to be 50% more contagious), coverage had to reach about 90%, but the delta variant effectively out-of-the-box herd immunity from vaccination. Extrude.
Even if the UK uses only the Pfizer vaccine, 100% of the total population, not just adults, must be fully vaccinated to achieve herd immunity with vaccination alone.
read more: Rapid increase in the number of cases may hinder overseas Travel Return
However, because two-thirds of people receive AstraZeneca (very protective against Covid’s death and hospitalization, but weaker than Pfizer against infection), the herd immunity equation is mathematical. Will be impossible.
The Joint Commission on Infection and Vaccination (JCVI) is currently considering whether to deploy vaccination to children aged 12 to 17 years. This allows us to approach herd immunity, but this is complicated by ethical considerations due to the risk of illness. It’s very low.
There is still hope that the virus can be lowered to low endemic levels, but a sufficient number of people have been vaccinated, during which time the R number of the virus is a physical distance, mitigation of face masks that limit infection, etc. Ventilate indoor spaces and meet outdoors when possible, as long as controlled by measures.
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