“Peak Transmitter”: Vaccine deployment needs to shift to adolescents to minimize Covid’s mortality.coronavirus

According to the Doherty Institute model, a “strategic shift” to vaccinate young people against Covid-19 is needed to slow the spread of the virus and minimize deaths and hospitalizations.

Supported modeling National Cabinet Plan For Australia to live with the virus, outbreaks show “rapid and uncontrolled” growth until vaccination rates reach 70%, which can lead to significant deaths and severe cases. Also shows.

To counter the challenge of the “aggressive delta strain”, the Dougherty Institute also advocated increased intake of the AstraZeneca vaccine for people over the age of 40, whose protection is comparable to Pfizer, 1 Two doses are 69% effective against death and two doses are 90% effective.

Dougherty reports that when vaccination rates reach 70% and 80%, the incidence of severe infections decreases, but in the “out of control” scenario, 1,300 to 2,000 people within 6 months. Will die from severe infections of 10,000 to 20,000 people. ..

Testing, tracking, quarantine, and quarantine (TTIQ) regimes are “optimal” if low-level limits such as capacity limits and social distance continue.

If the TTIQ system is only partially effective, mortality will be more than 100-fold worse, with 1,908 deaths from nearly 400,000 cases, modeling said.

Professor Jodie McVernon of the Doherty Institute said this modeling demonstrates the crucial importance of ongoing public health measures to complement vaccinated people.

“If we can maintain some social measures, maintain their public health capacity, and work together the synergies of those interventions, we have one-hundredth of the potentially harmful consequences. Can be reduced to, “said McVernon.

She also said that the current government strategy to focus on vaccination of older and vulnerable groups was correct, but now that vaccine supply is increasing, the focus is on young people who are the “peak transmitters” of the virus. He said he should move.

“To consider the best strategic use to advance our recommendations is to pursue a strategy that takes advantage of the direct protection that has already been achieved, but now by focusing on transmission. It amplifies that, “says McVernon.

Under the focus of “all adults” vaccination, the number of symptomatic infections will be 393,516 in 6 months, compared to 617,292 under the “oldest first” strategy.

Of these infections, the death toll is 1,984 and 3,564, respectively, but these numbers may be exaggerated because the scenario assumes minimal density and capacity limits. ..

McBurnon also said that young adults are most likely to be infected with the disease, but the best way to protect children is to vaccinate their parents, and vaccination of children is “moderate” in infection rates. “It only affects.”

“By vaccination of parents, we protect our children,” she said.

“I’m a parent. I was a pediatrician before I became a public health doctor.

“Children are very important, so we believe that a strategy that protects not only them, but also the elderly and working-age people, is the best strategy at the moment.”

Studies show that the vaccine is “continuum” and that each increase in vaccination rate reduces viral infections and adverse health effects.

Until high vaccination rates, the best strategy is to continue the “early and tight blockade” suppression approach in the event of an outbreak to limit the duration and cost of the blockade, modeling says. ..

Prime minister, Scott Morrison, Said the government changed its approach to the virus after the emergence of Delta variants.

Morrison first praised New South Wales The government said on Tuesday that previously functioning tools had been “blunted” by Delta stocks, saying it did not tightly block the state’s outbreak.

“That is, we had to adjust our response, so the reality of a short, hopefully, but strong blockade to prevent Delta stocks from escaping from us … is now our first. It’s a response, “Morison said.

“When things change, you have to change with them.”

He also said the New South Wales government needed to reject the proposal that it could emerge early from the current blockade and reduce the number of incidents in the community “to a level that could be suppressed and contained.” Stated.

“That’s the goal of the Government of New South Wales.”

After New South Wales Prime Minister Gladys Berejikrian reported relaxation of restrictions when vaccination rates reached 50%, he said Dougherty modeling could not be applied to “break” the existing blockade.

Modeling suggests that rapid spread and high case numbers are still expected at that level, with over 1,000,000 symptomatic infections nationwide within 6 months. It is based on modeling with baseline limits and the effectiveness of “partial” TTIQ.

Treasurer on Tuesday Josh Frydenberg He also provided up-to-date information on the economic costs of lockdown and stated that swift action as achieved in Queensland, South Australia and Victoria is the best approach.

“Otherwise, we see longer and tighter blockages with far greater economic costs,” he said.

The Ministry of Finance estimates that if the vaccination rate is 50%, the economic cost of the outbreak is $ 570 million per week, and if the vaccination rate reaches 70%, it will be $ 200 million per week, 80. In%, it drops to $ 140 per week.

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