Understaffed hospitals are afraid of overcrowding this winter as the flu mixes with COVID: Shot

Christie Lindog, a registered nurse, works in the Cardiovascular Intensive Care Unit at the Providence Cedars-Sinai Tarzana Medical Center on September 2, 2021 in Tarzana, California.

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APUGOMES / AFP via Getty Images

Christie Lindog, a registered nurse, works in the Cardiovascular Intensive Care Unit at the Providence Cedars-Sinai Tarzana Medical Center on September 2, 2021 in Tarzana, California.

APUGOMES / AFP via Getty Images

As the second pandemic winter approaches, there are promising signs that the worst delta surge has progressed, but American hospitals are already understaffed and stagnated from the COVID-19 summer torrent. I lived.

Many people have little time (if any) to reorganize from the threat of a potentially worse flu season, the influx of patients to catch up with treatment delays, and this latest wave. We are looking at the severe situation in cold weather such as depletion. Coronavirus infection.

“It’s like a perfect storm, isn’t it? Massive, sensitive, low staff,” says the emergency physician. Dr. Greg Miller, Chief Medical Officer of Healthcare Staff Group Vituity. “Winter is already tough for hospitals and emergency departments.”

And some of the major COVID-19 modeling Suggests that the United States will escape another major onslaught The recent history of the coronavirus during the holiday season has shown hospitals that nothing can be predicted with this virus.

“Our hospital needs to be prepared for the constant presence of people who are infected with COVID and need acute care,” he said. Dr. Amy Williams, Mayo Clinic Practice Executive Dean.

Big flu rebound?

The highly feared “eccentricity” of influenza and coronavirus did not hit last winter, probably due to the social distance and masking that people undertook in response to the coronavirus.

However, some experts fear that last year’s very mild flu season set the stage for a major rebound in the coming months as fewer people boosted their immunity.

“It could be really bad, and it could be really bad when there are still quite a few COVID-19s that fill our hospital,” he says. Dr. Mark Roberts,director Institute of Public Health Dynamics At the University of Pittsburgh.

He says he had an average of about 300,000 to 400,000 flu hospitalizations in the past flu seasons, except last year. Two recent studies According to Roberts and his colleagues, this season could bring an additional 100,000 to 400,000 flu hospitalizations.Previous studies on the flu season Estimated to be between 18,000 and 96,000 Depending on the season, ICU admission related to influenza.

Predicting the flu season is difficult and these worst-case scenarios may not occur, but it depends on the predominant flu strain and the behavior of the people.

“There are so many checkered patterns of COVID mitigation in the United States that the amount of flu depends on it, and the number of people vaccinated against the flu varies,” says Roberts.

Moreover, optimistic predictions do not completely eliminate COVID.

According to the CDC and other models, the number of cases at the national level may be steadily declining, but there are enough viruses to encourage local outbreaks and keep some hospitals busy. There is a possibility.

“I’m still hoping to see some spikes,” he says. Stephen Kistler, Harvard TH Chan Graduate School of Public Health. “I don’t think we’re completely out of the forest yet.”

Even the combination of the mild to moderate flu season and the rest of this current wave of COVID-19 is likely to strain valuable ICU resources, he said. Dr. Greg Martin, President of the Critical Care Center.

“The delta surge doesn’t go away as quickly as everyone wants, and its long tail creates a lot of uncertainty and anxiety,” he says.

Catch up with postponed care

Patients already tend to appear in hospital sick people during the winter, which could be especially true this year after the massive disruption of medical access caused by COVID-19, leading to a backlog of delayed treatment. increase.

Some patients were forced to postpone very necessary surgery or inpatient care, while others regularly caught some growing health problems before they became serious. I’ve stopped booking doctors, says Gregg Miller of Vituity.

“We’re already dealing with the baseline of sick patients, so what if it’s cold and people slip and fall? Or is it a little more likely to catch a mild cold that upsets heart failure?” Says.

Many hospitals have tried to avoid stopping medical procedures that are very necessary for other types of patients during this latest wave of COVID-19, but it has been hit hard by some. It wasn’t always possible in some states.

In Washington, the MultiCare Health System has already stated that “it was very, very full before the delta wave broke out and our case surged.” Dr. Michael Mint, Physician executives for artificial health by MultiCare.

Myint expects them to work through postponed care for some time, given the current demand for COVID-19 in their hospitals.

“We are still at the peak levels of last winter and the last breathing season,” he says.

Staffing issues

Healthcare workers are flagging after a surge after a surge in COVID-19 patients, and many parts of the country are experiencing major staff shortages at the same time.

“”The current crisis in the country is the inability to provide adequate staff to patients in need of care. ” Dr. Omar Latif, CEO of Rush University Medical Center in Chicago.

This loss of health care providers is especially noticeable in nursing, and many hospitals are fiercely competing for the same limited pool of travel nurses to fill the gap. There are also concerns that the mandatory COVID-19 vaccine could further erode the workforce, but Lateef states that it is not the cause of staffing issues.

“”It really has to do with supply and demand, “he says. “And now the difference is that the number of patients is increasing nationwide at about the same time as the number of healthcare providers is decreasing.”

It’s not just about numbers.Hospitals say they are “watching the escape” of their most skilled medical workers Dr. Thomas McGinn, Executive Vice President of Medical Enterprises at Common Spirit Health, a national healthcare system.

“Instead of retiring in a year or two, they are now retired,” he says. “Many experienced people teach when young people come in, so there is tension in losing older people and losing people to train at work.“”

And this couldn’t come at the worst time. Due to all compound factors, healthcare professionals are afraid of an oncoming influx of patients this winter.

“People are tired of health care and have burnout not seen in this country. [before]“It sets the stage for future burnout and more staffing issues, coupled with the expected increase in winter volumes,” says Lateef.