The flu was predicted to growl during the Australian winter, after a two-year grace period.Australian news

Australia’s upcoming flu season is likely to be worse than in past pandemic years, and experts warn of complacency with the flu vaccine.

It was historically Low level flu Last year, it was infected nationwide. This is primarily the result of border closures and other public health measures related to Covid-19.

According to Professor Ian Barr of the Doherty Institute, there were 598 cases of influenza confirmed in all 598 laboratories in 2021, according to data from the National Notifying Disease Surveillance System.

In comparison, the same number of cases have already been recorded this year. April 6 data..

“There is usually a low level of activity throughout these summer and autumn months, and the real rise does not usually start until May,” says Barr, Deputy Director of the World. health The Organization’s Cooperation Center for Reference and Research on Influenza said.

“Covid is the center of people’s hearts, and the flu isn’t really,” he said.

“The virus will come back this year after a two-year layoff. Vaccination is still the best way to protect yourself.”

Bar was optimistic that this year’s flu season wouldn’t be as harsh as 2019. Cases confirmed by 313,033 tests 953 people died (compared to 21,266 people died in 2020).

However, Nigel Stocks, a professor of general practice at the University of Adelaide, said this year would bring “unknown territory.”

“We are faced with a rare and novel situation where much of the community has not been exposed to the flu for at least two years,” he said.

However, promisingly, recent winters in the Northern Hemisphere have had shorter influenza outbreaks than in the pre-pandemic years.

“It’s not clear why, but it was welcomed because Covid was clearly circulating at the same time,” Stocks said.

Is “Furrona” a risk?

Co-infection with both Covid and influenza (called “Flurona”) is possible, but less common and presumed to have an effect. Less than 1% With Covid in the general community.

One UK survey of more than 212,000 people last month Lancet The journal found that individuals admitted to Covid had a co-influenza rate of 3%. People with co-infection were four times more likely to wear a ventilator and twice more likely to die in the hospital.

“In all other seasons, people could get two infections at once,” Stocks said. “Previously it was influenza and respiratory syncytial virus or rhinovirus.”

According to Stocks, people can be infected with both influenza A and B at the same time, but emphasized that this is rare.

“The only way you can protect yourself is immunization,” he said. “Unfortunately, immunity is not perfect … but it is very effective, especially in the elderly and young and vulnerable groups.”

Infants who receive the flu vaccine for the first time need two jabs for proper immunity, rather than the one dose required for all other groups, Stocks said.

Free influenza vaccination Currently available to the highest risk groups, including those aged 65 and over, pregnant or in chronic health, and children aged 6 months to 5 years.

Decreased influenza diversity

According to a new study co-authored by Barr, the decline in international movement during a pandemic has significantly reduced the diversity of influenza strains that are endemic.

Studies published in peer-reviewed journals Nature CommunicationsAlso noted that one strain of influenza B virus known as B / Yamagata still appears to have been wiped out. It has not been definitively detected since April 2020.

If the bar B / Yamagata is permanently eliminated, “It’s us [flu] This is because the standard vaccine has only three components instead of four. “

“The big advantage of influenza B virus is the lack of animal storage, so the influenza B / Yamagata virus is rarely hidden in chickens, pigs, etc.,” Barr said.

“They do not replicate to the measurable range except us.

“It took us more than 20 years to get rid of this virus, but we didn’t really get rid of it ourselves. It seems that the pandemic did it. I wish it had gone away, but I’m confident. not.”