Despite the increase in coronavirus, there is hope that LA County can avoid another surge.

Despite the recent increase in coronavirus cases, Los Angeles County public health director said this week he hopes the region can avoid another major surge by taking wise precautions. ..

According to Times data analysis, the number of newly reported cases of coronavirus in Los Angeles County has increased by 42% over the past two weeks, from an average of 725 to 1,030 per day. On a per capita basis, LA County currently averages about 71 cases per week for every 100,000 residents. When the transmission rate exceeded 50, the transmission was moderate to practically two weeks ago.

In central New York, health authorities are watching closely. New Omicron subvariant — BA.2.12 and BA.2.12.1 — These are estimated to be 25% more infectious than their parent subvariant BA.2. Dominant Nationwide.

BA.2.12.1 was detected in California, said Dr. Peter Chin Hong, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, San Francisco.

Some experts say that people who have mitigated preventative measures may want to be more cautious to avoid infection.

Still, there remain optimistic signs that the recent increase in cases can lead to more blip than the start of a new surge.

The percentage of Los Angeles County emergency room visits related to coronavirus remained low at only 3% last week. Authorities express moderate concern if the number is above 5% and high level concern if the number is above 10%. At the peak of Omicron’s surge in early January, 29% of emergency room visits were associated with COVID-19, County Public Health Director Barbara Ferrer told reporters Thursday.

228 coronavirus-positive individuals on Thursday I was hospitalized In LA County. This is a 21% decrease from two weeks ago, approaching the lowest daily patient count recorded for the entire pandemic. This was recorded when the aggregate 10 months ago was 212.

Another concern is if the amount of coronavirus detected in the sewage system doubles in 10 days. But for now, coronavirus levels in wastewater are stable, Feller said.

She emphasized that residents should continue to pay attention and urged them to wear masks, stay home in case of illness, take the latest shots and test before the get-together.

And unlike Philadelphia,next week Resume LA County, which is obliged to use indoor masks, is far from issuing similar orders, but local authorities still strongly recommend wearing them in indoor public places.

Feller said LA County would need a mask again if the number of coronavirus-positive hospitalizations in the area reached the threshold set by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

LA County COVID-19 community levelBased on the hospitalization utilization rate defined by the CDC, remains low. According to Feller, that level must be considered high to trigger a return to universal indoor masking.

One way LA County reaches that threshold is when the new coronavirus-positive hospitalization rate is more than four times higher than it is today.

But waiting so long for compulsory mask orders may be too late to avoid the hospital system facing serious problems, Feller said.

The hypothetical situation that the return of mask orders in Los Angeles County may make sense before the CDC threshold is reached is a new variant in which vaccine-induced immunity can no longer prevent serious illness or death. Is the rise of.

“If you see a surge in cases, you may not want to wait until your hospital stay is very high, and you’ll have to do the masking again before that,” Feller said.

LA county Currently, there are no cases of rapid increase. The pace of increase in the number of cases in LA County over the past three weeks has been Omicron explosion Last fall and winter. For example, in the last two weeks of 2021, the coronavirus case rate increased by 580%, peaking at about 42,000 cases per day by early January.

“We don’t see exponential growth in the case. We see such a steady and small increase. In the case, it’s an increase of 2% to 3% daily,” says Ferrer. Still, she added, “these increases are nevertheless a concern and now serve as a reminder that the county-wide transmission is considerable.”

Case rates for the last two weeks remain flat San Diego, Riverside When Ventura county. However, there is an increase in other areas as well.

Orange county Currently, there are an average of 42 cases per 100,000 residents per week, an increase of 47% from two weeks ago. San Bernardino The county tax rate is 86, an increase of 176%. San Francisco Currently there is one of the states Highest case rateAt 116, it increased by 16%.

“This isn’t a perfect picture to the extent of California’s imagination,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco, at a campus conference on Friday.

Chin-Hong of UC San Francisco said he still eats indoors at the restaurant, but is more careful about wearing masks anywhere in the venue when he’s not at the table.

Chin-Hong suggested that people attending multiple household gatherings take a quick test before meeting if they plan to meet indoors unmasked. The risk of meeting outdoors or staying masked when meeting indoors is low.

People can have different thresholds about how much risk they want to take to meet. Those who want to reduce their risk may be elderly people, people with immunodeficiency, people who have not yet been boosted, or people who have not been vaccinated. People who live with people at high risk. Those who can’t afford to get infected because they don’t have to stay home for at least five days, said Chin Hong.

Ferrer, director of public health in LA County, also listen People they plan to meet if they are vaccinated and boosted.

These steps reduce the risk of infection, but do not eliminate it.

Public health officials attribute the recent rise primarily to a combination of reduced innate and vaccine-induced immunity, the removal of certain public health measures, and the proliferation of BA.2. From its ancestors.

“”Our hope is that it will level off, “Feller said. “Our hope is that people are aware that we are circulating more infectious submutants, and more carefully, Put on that mask In these high-risk settings, it is wise to go ahead and test at the time of collection and try to avoid reinfection or new infections. “

Chin-Hong said the latest subvariant detected in central New York was “definitely eyebrows.” But he continued to expect California to avoid a significant second Omicron surge as observed in the United Kingdom.

California has relaxed pandemic-related rules, such as mandatory masks, later than Britain, so it may be better to avoid the second big surge in Omicron, Chin Hong said. The decision There were still many incidents to lift the deregulation early, but Britain may have prepared for a harsher spring. UK Weekly COVID-19 Mortality It increased by nearly 80% from early March to early April.

BA.2 is currently the predominant version of the coronavirus prevalent in the United States, accounting for an estimated 86% of the national sample in the week leading up to Saturday. by Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Authorities say it’s due to an easily spreading subvariant Behind the significant increase Cases of coronavirus in parts of Europe, Asia and the United States.

However, in Los Angeles County, the increase in infectious diseases has not yet caused a corresponding increase in the number of people hospitalized for COVID-19 and dying from COVID-19. However, public health officials have long pointed out that it can take weeks for this domino effect to take effect, and the coronavirus uplift in LA County is still relatively new.

“After the increase in cases, the usual delay in hospitalization increases, so the corresponding increase in hospitalization may not yet be seen,” Feller said.

But unlike the early days of the pandemic, where there was almost a clockwork rhythm from infection to hospitalization to death, some officials and experts say it is no longer given.

There are several reasons for that optimism. The first is the high level of vaccination rates in LA County. Approximately 79% of all residents have been vaccinated at least once and 71% have been fully vaccinated. Health data show..

Effective treatment It can be difficult to find them, but they are still available.The study also shows that Omicron Tends to cause It is a less severe disease overall than previous strains, such as the Delta mutant that caused the surge last summer.

Surviving delta infections did not eliminate Omicron infections, but surviving early Omicron subvariants in winter may provide some protection against Omicron BA.2 subvariants.

According to Feller, an average of 13 COVID-19 deaths were reported daily last week, down from about 40 a month ago.

Authorities are also monitoring Omicron XE subvariant, As preliminary data suggest, it may be 10% more contagious than BA.2. XE has not been detected in LA County, but two cases have been identified elsewhere in California, Feller said.

Officials say that even infections that ultimately turn out to be mild or asymptomatic carry certain risks. After all, all new cases represent another opportunity for coronavirus to mutate in potentially harmful ways, as indicated by the emergence of Delta and Omicron variants.

“The more infections we have, the more likely we are to see new or subspecies,” Feller said. “Therefore, this should be another reason why it is important for all of us to increase these vaccination rates and booster immunity rates.”