New method better tracks Black Death fungus over the years

East Smithfield plague pits used for mass burials in 1348 and 1349. Credit: Museum of London Archaeology (MOLA)

Key Point:

• An analysis of over 600 genome sequences worldwide has shed more light on the deadly yet elusive Black Death.
• each new approach Y. Pestis Independent evaluation of populations allows researchers to more accurately date lineages.
• Understanding past, present and future pandemics requires more than genetic data.

To better understand the origins and movements of bubonic plague, researchers have completed a painstaking examination of hundreds of modern and ancient genome sequences to produce the largest analysis of its kind.

was announced in communication biology, The study covers more than 600 plagues around the world, ranging from the first appearance of plague to humans 5,000 years ago, Justinian’s plague, the Black Death of the Middle Ages, and the early onset of the current (or third) pandemic. It features the analysis of genomic sequences. 20th century.

First, researchers Y. Pestis However, they quickly discovered that the species-wide clock model was unstable and did not lead to reproducible estimates. one reason is Y. Pestis It evolves at such a slow pace that it is almost impossible to pinpoint its origin. Humans and rodents carried pathogens around the world through travel and trade, allowing them to spread faster than their genomes could evolve. , are all identical despite being separated by years, posing, for example, great challenges in determining transmission routes.

Thus, a multi-institutional research team developed a new approach. Y. Pestis Populations were assessed independently. This identifies and dates five populations throughout history, including the most famous ancient pandemic lineage, which they estimate to have emerged decades or centuries before pandemics were historically recorded in Europe. I was able to do.

“We recommend this approach for future research. Y. Pestis available without downsampling,” the team wrote in their paper.

Even if successful, researchers say more information is needed to construct past and future pandemics. In addition to genetic information, historical, ecological, environmental, social and cultural backgrounds are equally important.

“Despite this methodological advance, only reliable divergence dates are available from populations sampled over at least 90 years, and only genetic evidence is needed to accurately reconstruct the timing and spread of short-term plague epidemics.” is not sufficient,” the team concludes.

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