Health
‘Hong Kong’ pandemic killing 1 to 4 million people
“I have a bird, whose name is Enza. I opened the window and flew off.”
– 1918 skip song.
In the months since Covid-19 has taken root worldwide, there have been many references to the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic. Between 1918 and 1919, more than 80,000 Irish people were infected and more than 23,000 were killed in several waves of infection. The Spanish flu was caused by the bird flu virus. Recent influenza outbreaks include viruses emerging from swine.
The last serious pandemic infection occurred in 1968. With far less mention than the Spanish version, it is estimated to kill one to four million people, much less than the 1918 pandemic.
The 1968 “Hong Kong” pandemic was caused by influenza A (H3N2). It’s nothing else we’ve become accustomed to, especially when a toxic flu strikes. Normal pain is debilitating – people are so debilitating that they cannot lift their heads from the pillow.
The retired Irish GP explained that during the 1968 epidemic, the rural village where she lived was like a haunted town. “There was no one on the street. The whole household was affected and was not confused for weeks. The supplies needed were so lucky and unfortunately delivered by neighbors. It was.”
Percentage of house calls that have surged. She worked 18 hours, weeks and weeks before she succumbed to the infection.
Different microbes
Acknowledging the fact that influenza and coronaviruses are completely different organisms, is there any guidance for our future at Covid-19 from the 1968 pandemic of influenza?
Influenza H3N2 like Covid-19 is very contagious. The difference in immunity was apparent as the influenza virus mutated as it spread worldwide, as evidenced by different patterns of infection and death. How much antigen drift has already been seen with Sars-CoV-2?
Although it is tricky and certainly unpredictable, in general, the effects and consequences of a pandemic are viral virulence, attack rate, clinical disease severity, lethality, and efficacy of preventive measures.
In a “worst case” influenza scenario with an attack rate of 50% and a lethality of 2.5%, modeling Ireland, Causing about 78,000 hospitalizations and about 53,000 deaths.
As the 1968 epidemic progressed, at first Asia, Revealed an important difference between illness and death patterns.
To Japan The epidemic was small and scattered until the end of 1968. Most notable is the high morbidity and mortality in the United States after the introduction of the virus on the West Coast. This was in contrast to the western experience Europe, An increase in illness occurred between 1968 and 1969 with no increase in mortality, and no increase in mortality was seen until the year following the pandemic.
Smoldering
The 1968 pandemic was characterized as “smoldering”. Probably due to the presence of the N2 component, unchanged from previous infections. In other words, people exposed to the original Hong Kong influenza.
In addition, various diseases caused by Covid-19 occur worldwide. Based on our experience in 1968, are people who are positive but still asymptomatic benefit from a previous coronavirus infection?
Or does that previous exposure lead to mild illness?
However, the relative savings of children and adolescents go against previous exposure to the coronavirus, which provides an element of protection.
Available Covid-19 vaccines are a little further away. This leaves various social measures designed to avoid outbreaks. This was not widely practiced during the 1968 pandemic in Hong Kong.
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