Predictive analytics model inspects droplets to map COVID-19 spreads

July 21, 2020 -Predictive analysis model Indicated In the absence of a mask, a social distance of 6 feet is not enough to prevent one breathing droplet from reaching someone else and may contribute to the spread of viruses like COVID-19. ..

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In a study published in a journal Fluid physics, A team of international researchers set out to better understand the role of droplet clouds in the spread of respiratory viruses. Researchers say that sneezing, coughing, or respiratory droplets released during conversation contribute to the spread of COVID-19 and other viruses.

The team applied existing models of chemical reactions and physics to droplets of saline solutions and investigated with ultrasonic levitation to determine the size, spread, and lifetime of these particles under different environmental conditions. ..

Researchers have found that respiratory droplets travel farther and last longer in wet, cold climates than in dry, hot climates. At 95 degrees Fahrenheit and 40% relative humidity, droplets can travel about 8 feet. However, at 41 degrees Fahrenheit and 80% humidity, droplets can travel up to 12 feet.

In addition, the results showed that droplets in the 14-48 micron range were at higher risk because they took longer to evaporate and travel longer distances. Conversely, small droplets evaporate in less than a second, while droplets over 100 microns quickly settle on the ground due to their weight.

Using this information, researchers Predictive analysis model Predicts early spread of respiratory viruses. This model is the first based on the basic approach adopted to study chemical reactions called collision rate theory.

“The basic basic form of a chemical reaction is the collision of two molecules. How often they collide tells how fast the reaction proceeds.” Said Abhishek Saha, professor of mechanical engineering and one of the authors of the paper at the University of California, San Diego. “Once again, the frequency with which a healthy person comes into contact with an infected spray cloud is a measure of how quickly the disease spreads.”

Depending on the weather conditions, the team Breath splash Move 8 to 13 feet from the source before evaporation, without regard to wind. That is, without a mask, a social distance of 6 feet might not be enough to prevent one exhalation particle from reaching another.

“The physics of the droplets are highly dependent on the weather,” Saha said. “In cold and humid climates, sneeze and cough drops last longer and spread farther than hot and hot dry climates. We have incorporated these parameters into an infection spread model. To the best of our knowledge, It is not included in existing models.”

Many current pandemic models use fitting parameters to make the data applicable to the entire population. The new predictive model developed by the researchers in this study aims to change that.

“Our model is based on “first principles” entirely by linking well-understood physical laws, so there is little relevant fitting,” said University of Toronto professor and co-author Swetaprovo Chaudhuri. I am.

“Of course, making ideal assumptions and some parameter variability, but improving each submodel in a particular experiment and including current best practices in epidemiology, is a predictable first-principles pandemic. Models may be possible.”

The team hopes the model will help Inform public health policy At the local level, it can be used to better understand the role of environmental factors in the spread of the virus in the future. The results also show the importance of wearing a mask to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Researchers plan to improve the model and make it more versatile.

“Our next step is to relax some simplifications and generalize the model by including different transmission modes,” said Saptarshi Basu, professor and co-author of the Indian Institute of Science. States. “A series of experiments is also underway to investigate respiratory droplets that settle on commonly touched surfaces.”