Lab Note: Are we on the brink of another pandemic?

Belinda Smith: ABC Listen, podcasts, radio, news, music, and more. Currently, bird flu strains are torn apart the United States, infecting wildlife, livestock and people. first

Speaker 3: In Louisiana, Americans sign a contract with serious cases of avian flu.

Belinda Smith: Currently, there are 70 confirmed cases in humans, but the actual infections can be much higher. The latest news from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in the US…

Speaker 3: The current risk level to public health is actually low.

Belinda Smith: But this is because the Trump administration has cut down a lot of major health agencies across the country. So does this mean we are in another pandemic cusp? Hello, I'm Belinda Smith. This is a lab notebook. This is a show that analyses the science behind new discoveries and current events. Today we know how the US has invaded this situation and what it means for preparing for a pandemic, not just in the US but around the world. Professor Raina McIntyre, head of the biosecurity program at Kirby Institute, a medical research institute in Sydney, will be taking part. Avian flu currently makes dozens of people sick in the United States, and in January this year the first person died of illness. So, what is the current situation?

rih machinkyre: It's very serious. In fact, there has been this unprecedented increase in this particular avian influenza H5N1 since 2020. If necessary, a new variant of it appears around 2020, then it begins to spread further around the world, infecting much more wild birds than it has historically been infected, and infecting mammals and other animals. It's starting. world. And with this, we saw a transition from the historic epicenter of avian influenza that once existed in Asia. So we had a truly relentless trend. Usually, the pattern may die after you get an outbreak and then disappear for a while, then another occurrence may occur.

Belinda Smith: However, this H5N1 outbreak will not be stopped. And it has been on poultry farms in the United States since 2022. So how did you get into the dairy farm?

rih machinkyre: We did some research earlier last year showing that the first invasion into the US was an invasion of farms through wild birds. Once it enters the farm, it spreads it across the farm, travels between birds, animals, birds to animals.

Belinda Smith: The latest figures suggest that around 1,000 dairy herds across 17 US states are infected with H5N1.

rih machinkyre: The whole milking process worked like a super spreader event. Therefore, especially in the United States, there is a situation where not only wild birds but also farmed chickens, but also agricultural animals. And it affects not only dairy cows, but also goats, alpacas and other farm animals. and

rih machinkyre: They are in close contact with animals on infected farms, which is primarily linked to infected people.

rih machinkyre: Humans have certain types of receptors in the upper respiratory tract, which binds to human seasonal influenza in the nose and throat. This causes the seasonal influenza virus to enter, bind to receptors in the nose and throat, invading the body, causing illness. Birds have different types of receptors, and humans are not abundant in the respiratory system.

Belinda Smith: That's why bird flu is not easily spreading among humans. But that may change. Influenza viruses switch genetic codes as many times as possible. That's why we need a new flu shot every year. And there are a lot of flu flying around.

Speaker 3: The Centers for Disease Control say this flu season is the worst the US has seen in 15 years.

rih machinkyre: What we are worried about is that when humans with human flu come into contact with animals or birds of avian flu, the two viruses exchange genetic segments and generate human pandemic viruses again That means it can be resolved.

Belinda Smith: Now, it's not happening yet. However, if this genetic exchange between influenza viruses occurs, it will most likely occur in pigs.

rih machinkyre: Pigs have both receptors and birds that humans possess.

Belinda Smith: This means that pig farm workers can pass human flu to pigs, and wild ducks can fly and give the same pig H5N1 bird flu.

rih machinkyre: Therefore, pigs are the ideal genetic mixing container for causing their mutations.

Belinda Smith: And last October, in Oregon…

Speaker 3: Agriculture officials in the US have discovered the first case of avian flu in pigs, along with 70 birds. The Crook County Farm where they lived was not commercial, so the animals were not part of the public food supply. So

rih machinkyre: What we are concerned about is that avian viruses adapt and mutate to pick up genetic properties from human viruses and allow them to easily bind to human respiratory tracts. And when it happens, you have the conditions of a pandemic.

Belinda Smith: To resolve the confusion, the avian influenza that was recently discovered in poultry farms in Australia, particularly Victoria, is the H7N8 virus. The H5N1 virus currently infecting people in the US has not yet been detected in Australia. We are the only continent without it. Now, this spread of respiratory diseases between animals and humans all sound eerily familiar to Covid. So how similar are viruses?

rih machinkyre: In a similar sense, both are respiratory viruses with potential pandemics. And the possibility of causing the pandemic that we call a pandemic is actually a virus that humans have never experienced before, and our immune system is not prepared to suit this virus, so we are is very susceptible to the effects. That's why you get really severely ill when you first hit. Therefore, the seasonal influenza virus we see every year was once a pandemic virus, but it has been circulating in human populations for a long time, so we have immunological memories and we do not get sick. It's back to the 1918 pandemic.

Belinda Smith: Look, it may be too early to say this, but I know how serious this disease is, since I've seen one fatality in the US against this H5 strain of this avian flu. mosquito?

rih machinkyre: H5N1 has been affecting humans since 1997, and all data from H5N1 up to this outbreak in the US suggests a case fatality rate of approximately 50%. But that's much less. About 70 people in the US had it and it was almost calm.

Belinda Smith: Most of these 70 people in the US had a variant of H5N1 called B3.13. I know, I'm not the biggest name, but we have to work with it. People who died in the US and Canadian teenagers on life support have been infected with a different variant called D1.1. Fortunately, so far, there are two very serious cases of D1.1. Most of them are B3.13.

rih machinkyre: Several variants of this virus, including those found in the Eagles in the US, invade the brain. Therefore, one of the clinical symptoms I might be expecting or looking for in a human pandemic is neurological. You may also see brain effects of encephalitis, seizures and viruses.

Belinda Smith: Is there a vaccine for bird flu for humans?

rih machinkyre: There is. There is something called a pre-pandemic vaccine. This is where they create a vaccine that matches what they think is the most likely H5 variant. Therefore, it is consistent with H5. Also, some countries like Finland have begun vaccinating high-risk people.

Belinda Smith: Ah, amazing. It feels like I've jumped into the situation compared to early 2020. I'm not saying that avian flu will definitely become a pandemic disease, but this is something like a good place to be, among them, is there a potential vaccine?

rih machinkyre: No, it's not a good place at all. But if it's influenza, then influenza has always been the focus of pandemic planning and is much more prepared than any other virus because it's so experienced in creating a flu vaccine. There are many influenza vaccine manufacturers. Australia has manufacturing capabilities. Currently, Australia also has mRNA capabilities.

Belinda Smith: This means that the mRNA vaccine can be rotated relatively quickly, for about six weeks. But whether people are willing to get vaccinated is a completely different matter.

rih machinkyre: We will face a difficult battle as we think the COVID pandemic has seen a massive increase in disinformation and anti-vaccine sentiment, anti-science sentiment. If there's another pandemic, we'll see more social resistance to vaccines and public health measures. I think that's a more important barrier than the science of making vaccines.

Belinda Smith: And that is particularly relevant as the well-known anti-refuge Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the head of health and welfare. We've also seen the Trump administration tell the CDC to stop publishing that data. What does that mean for other countries?

rih machinkyre: I think the world has been dependent on the US for a very long time. They have really good data on their CDC website, and they have clearly funded global health in more different organizations and countries than anyone else. So, as you know, the role of independent and resilient health intelligence is someone who provides us what we need, where we may not be able to rely on governments or NGOs. I think I'll increase the number. That is, after the US announced who they were leaving, a few other countries have also shown interest in leaving. So we were able to see some kind of domino effect.

Belinda Smith: How about Australia? So, you know, does this change the way we prepare for the next pandemic?

rih machinkyre: I don't know. I think Australia is at a crossroads too. I think there will be some work around Australia's national identity and who we are and what our nation is in its greatest interest. But there is so much we can do as a nation to protect our own interests, and we should do that. And that includes ensuring that there is a commitment to properly fund the CDC in Australia and ensure it is sustainable and can withstand government change.

Belinda Smith: Are you most worried about this bird flu happening in the US?

rih machinkyre: Because there is an opportunity for human and avian viruses to mix, we consider everything in terms of statistical probability and the statistical probability of their mutations. There are great opportunities, not just farm animals and humans working on farms and poultry. It lies in the food chain. Checking milk on the shelf in a US supermarket is about 30%, sometimes higher, sometimes a little lower, depending on which study it is positive for H5N1. Pasteurization now generally kills the virus, so you wouldn't expect it to get infected if milk is contaminated, but there is a huge market for raw milk in the US. People who drink raw milk are definitely at risk. Who knows if it's in beef? So it's in the food chain and there's a high chance that the event will happen.

Belinda Smith:As individuals, is there anything we can do? Go outside and get vaccinated. So if you have a seasonal flu vaccine, it's probably better than not getting the vaccine. And once seasonal influenza vaccines become available, they will be released in April of March. I just saw a very serious flu season in the US. That's still going on. We've seen young healthy teenagers and children dying from the flu in the United States. If that's a sign of what's ahead for us, it's really worth vaccinating.

Belinda Smith: Professor Rayna McIntyre, head of the Bioscience Program at Kirby Institute. Thank you for listening to the Lab Notes. Each week we bring you new discoveries and the science behind current events. I'm Belinda Smith. This episode was produced on the land of the people of Wurundjeri and Menang Noongar. The show was produced by Fiona Pepper and mixed by Tim Simmons. Also, if there are any topics you would like to cover, please send us an email. abc.net.au labnotes will catch you next week.