4,500 “excessive deaths” occurred in Virginia during a pandemic

New research According to a survey by Virginia Commonwealth University, it is estimated that an additional 4,500 Virginians died between March and August, based on historical data. Excessive death..

This is an increase of 16 percent, according to Stephen Woolf, lead author of the paper and Honorary Director of VCU’s Center for Social and Health. However, only 52% of these excess mortality in Virginia during the COVID-19 pandemic was due to the virus itself as either the root cause or the cause.

It is possible that the coronavirus was not accurately identified as the cause of some of these deaths, but Dr. Woolf said the latest analysis, Previous paper National over-deaths in March and April raise concerns that pandemics are causing a wave of secondary deaths due to the continued disruption of daily life.

“The US mortality rate for Alzheimer’s disease has increased significantly over the last five months,” he added. “Suddenly, the national mortality rate for heart disease has increased significantly, so this is the real thing.”

Virginia experts said that from the early days of the pandemic, COVID-19 safety restrictions (such as a stay-at-home order in late March and a one-month ban on selective procedures) exacerbated chronic illness and affected public health. I’ve been worried that it could cause By late April, pediatricians had suffered a sharp drop in immunization rates for children in the state. Virginia Hospital and the Healthcare Association reported a 52% reduction in emergency room use within the first three weeks after Virginia reported the first confirmed case.

Both ER and inpatient discharges have recovered slightly since the ban on selective treatment was lifted in May, according to VHHA Webina last week, but still far from previous year’s levels. The state has also seen an increase in opioid overdose over the same period — including a 123 percent increase in non-fatal overdose hospital visits at VCU.

“People who are not infected with the virus may be affected in terms of physical and behavioral health problems,” said Dr. Woolf. “Various hospitals and clinicians have reported delays in patients coming due to chronic illness. People were afraid of the virus and were slow to respond to acute emergencies. And conversely, drug overdose. Intake hospitalization has increased. “

According to the survey, excess mortality has increased by a total of 20% nationwide since March, with the highest per capita mortality in 10 states including New York, New Jersey and Arizona, and the highest virus damage in some areas. It was. Deaths from non-COVID causes such as heart disease, diabetes and Alzheimer’s disease have also surged in the five states with the highest number of deaths from coronavirus.

However, the updated report also analyzed the impact of resumption policies on excess mortality. The three states with the highest total mortality rates, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, accounted for 30% of all excess mortality during the five-month study period. However, Dr. Wolf said the states, which were hit hard early by the virus, soon enforced strict restrictions and stayed there for several months. This lifted the restrictions early and shortened the length of the epidemic compared to the state of Sunbelt, where deaths surged in the summer.

“I’m pointing to states like Florida, Texas, and Arizona. Their epidemic curves are completely different,” he added. “In these states, 90 percent of deaths occurred over 16 or 17 weeks, so this longer period means more excess deaths, as well as long-term economic turmoil in those states. And, ironically, the economy was one of the main motives of these governors. “

Dr. Woolf said the gradual removal of Virginia’s restrictions has been quite successful in limiting both the state’s COVID-19 and over-death numbers. However, he warned that national leaders should “keep their way” on autumn and winter restrictions, where the risk of the next surge is even greater.

One of the important considerations is that death from coronavirus and chronic illness has a disproportionate impact on people of color. “When we talk about over-death, it’s the African-American and Hispanic communities that bear the brunt of this,” Dr. Woolf added.

He also emphasized that the countries with the most successful virus management have developed strong testing and contact tracing infrastructures and have implemented extended safety restrictions. In the United States, where fragmented approaches largely define how to deal with pandemics, the same steps are not always taken.

“It is very important that our elected officials take a strong position on the need to continue these lifestyle changes,” said Dr. Woolf. “Otherwise we would see a huge loss of life, and the economy would be even more devastated.”

Virginia Governor Ralph Northam is currently not intending to relax the state’s current Phase 3 restrictions until he recovers from his own match at COVID-19 and further improves the metric at a press conference on Tuesday. Was announced.