COVID Fatal Victims: More than 300,000 Californians will die in 2020, at least 30,000 more than average

California surpassed 300,000 deaths in 2020, according to an analysis of state data obtained by Chronicles, a record mortality rate that indicates the brutal casualties that the coronavirus pandemic has caused to the state. ..

Within that number are some cool details. The estimated total death toll for Chronicles is about 302,000, an increase of 32,000, or 12%, over the three-year average of about 270,000 in California. The magnitude of total deaths suggests that the official COVID-19 deaths in California in 2020, which will exceed 25,400, could fall by more than 7,000 below the actual number.

This is not surprising — the number of deaths reported by COVID-19 is believed to be lower than the actual number of viral deaths nationwide due to a number of factors — but new numbers from California are Gives an idea of ​​a range of undercounts. That number could be even higher in California and across the country.Recent UCSF studies estimate In California, 20,000 more people died than expected in a normal year. In the first 6 months of the pandemic.

“This shows that the number of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States is significantly underestimated, lacking deaths directly from the virus and other causes exacerbated by the pandemic.” , Says forensic scientist Judy Melineck. A pathologist who runs a pathology company in San Francisco. “Given what we (seen) in December after Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays, looking back at the over-deaths from COVID-19 in the United States in 2020, the numbers are close to half or that You won’t be surprised if you exceed it. One million people. “

According to the report, the total number of deaths from COVID-19 in the United States exceeded 340,000 as of Thursday. Disease Control Center And prevention.

In addition to death from unexplained COVID, Melineck suffered from a natural illness due to fear of going to the hospital, delayed treatment due to a pandemic, and suicide or overdose due to a pandemic stressor. He said he may have died. In addition, she said, coroners did not always perform postmortem tests for the virus in the absence of obvious symptoms.

Deaths in 2020 represent the devastating casualties the virus has left in the state.

“This shows how serious the COVID epidemic was, how many lives were shortened and families were confused,” said George Rutherford, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco. I am. “This is a very serious illness and we need to work together as a society to minimize infection and get vaccinated as soon as it is provided.”

Still, California’s crude mortality rate (comparing total mortality to population) was much lower than the 1918 genocide caused by the Spanish flu, according to state Treasury records.

Chronicle analyzed state public health service statistics It shows that 277,571 people died in California between 2020 and November. California averaged 25,233 deaths each month last year, and if the average death toll in December was the record number of COVID-19 deaths, the death toll in 2020 would exceed 302,000. .. The state has not yet announced the December total.

“The Grim Reaper of COVID-19 has made our state the highest death toll ever,” said John Swartsberg, an infectious disease expert at the University of California, Berkeley, but overdeath is 12% above average. I expected more than that. Some studies suggest that the number could be between 20% and 50%, he said.

“We are surprised that we don’t have a large number of excessive deaths,” he said.

According to experts, using total mortality may be the most accurate way to fully understand the extent of a pandemic. This is because these are fixed numbers and do not depend on inspections or other uncertainties.

“We really don’t know how many people are infected,” said Travis Porco, a professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the University of California, San Francisco. “But while cause-of-death data are known to be unreliable and in some ways ambiguous, total mortality is usually reported fairly well.”

In fact, the 300,000 number can be daunting, but Porco suggests that if possible, the data will provide a more rosy image. If half of California’s approximately 40 million inhabitants were infected, the state would have killed 100,000 COVID-19 deaths, even with a low-ball infection mortality rate of half 1%, Porco said. .. In that scenario, the total death toll would have been well over 300,000. And, in that hypothesis, these deaths would have been even higher, Porco said, overwhelming the health care system and leading to substandard care if they happened during a short window.

“What surprised me most was how well we did compared to what might have been possible,” Porco said. Still, countries like Japan and Taiwan worked much better, he added.

Using the total number of COVID deaths reported, about 1 in 1,300 Californians died in 2020, California is the 11th best state, New Jersey is the worst, and COVID case fatality is the worst. About one for every 476 residents, Porco said. These rankings do not take into account potential underestimations.

Previously, California had the highest number of deaths in 2019, killing 270,952 people. As you can imagine, since 1900, the number of deaths has generally increased as the state’s population has increased. However, population-related mortality rates generally declined during the same period of life expectancy as improved hygiene, improved nutrition and health care, and reduced environmental pollution, among other factors.

California’s mortality rate has seen a “sinister” reversal in the long-term trend since 2008, Porco said. He said the recent rise may be associated with an opioid epidemic, but it is not entirely clear.

The previous major anomaly in the California mortality chart prior to COVID-19 was in 1918, when the Spanish flu struck California and the world, killing an estimated 20 to 50 million people worldwide.

About 3.3 million people lived in California that year, killing a total of about 58,000. That’s almost 1.8% of the state’s population, the highest case fatality rate in modern history. An average of about 40,000 people died three years before the epidemic hit the state, indicating an over-death of nearly 20,000 people likely to be associated with the flu.

Porco warned that pop champagne and the welcome of a new calendar year would not stop its widespread adoption.The· Reproduction number The daily crunches of Porco and his colleagues show that California is well above 1.0, demonstrating sustained exponential growth. Below 1.0, it indicates that the condition is beginning to confirm a decrease in the increase in infection.

“Needless to say, we are far from the forest,” he said.