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What is a magic number? Reasons for not knowing the herd immunity threshold of COVID-19

What is a magic number? Reasons for not knowing the herd immunity threshold of COVID-19

 


Even if it infects two-thirds of the city, COVID-19 still seems to be widespread.

Article author:

Tristin Hopper

release date:

February 11, 2021 •• 39 minutes ago •• Read for 4 minutes

As a nasty sign, COVID-19 has already re-infected people who have naturally recovered from their illness. Photo courtesy of Ryan Remiorz / The Canadian Press

Today, the entire planet is trapped in one of the greatest peacetime efforts in human history. Inoculate as many COVID-19 vaccines as possible on as many weapons as possible to deny new victims of the pandemic. The brass ring of this effort is “herd immunity”. This is a well-recognized principle that the virus cannot be physically spread because it is well vaccinated. Below is what we know about herd immunity and COVID-19.

We are already stuck in the immunity of different herds

Eradication of infectious diseases is very very difficult, which is why Homo sapiens has I did it only twice.. For everything else, the best we can usually do is keep it away with high dose vaccination. This applies to everything from measles to polio to mumps. All of these diseases are as deadly as they were 100 years ago, but they do not spread simply because they are almost empty.

Each disease has its own herd immunity threshold.Measles Very infectious That means it can still spread to 90 percent of the vaccinated population. In contrast, mumps can be tamed at only 75 percent.

The exact herd immunity threshold for COVID-19 is not yet known

It was initially believed that the virus was not very contagious before scientists understood how widely COVID-19 could spread to asymptomatic patients. As a result, it was estimated that herd immunity could be achieved at a constant rate. Only 10 percent of the population
Public health agencies assume that the virus can be domesticated at a rate of 66%. But just two weeks ago, Troublesome research It emerged from the city of Manaus, Brazil, indicating that more than 76% of the population was a survivor of COVID-19. Obviously, the 66 percent threshold did not protect the city.

All attempts to reach herd immunity without vaccines were incredibly expensive

The impact of the COVID-19 blockade was so devastating that policymakers suggested responding to the disease with a mixed strategy that included protecting vulnerable populations and leaving everyone else alone. Of course. The most famous practitioner of this was Sweden.Sweden First received praise By the end of the year, this approach resulted in mortality in the case of a pandemic response that did not boost the economy. Up to 10 times higher than Scandinavian neighbors..

At some point in the spring of 2020, New York City will be in the world The worst epicenter of COVID-19..New York was hit by a second wave, although there was initial hope that the city’s spring catastrophe would at least remain resilient to future outbreaks. Like everyone else.. SSubsequent research Just recently in November, it was discovered that 90% of New Yorkers could still be susceptible to COVID-19 infection.
In October, the research team published a letter that was widely distributed at Lancet. It warns that if countries pursue a “natural herd immunity” strategy, it could result in thousands of unnecessary deaths. No noticeable improvement in resilience..

Vaccines are not always very good at preventing infections

In a head-on rush to develop the COVID-19 vaccine, pharmaceutical researchers were completely focused on finding a prescription that would prevent people from getting sick. There is no guarantee that any of these vaccines will prevent recipients from getting sick.That’s why public health authorities are so careful about claiming vaccines. Not a golden ticket to ignore social distance and hide obligations.. It is perfectly possible for a patient to “excrete” the virus to others while the vaccine acts as a shield against serious infections.
Fortunately, we may be in a rare pandemic fortune. Early Israeli data show that the Pfizer vaccine actually blocks virus replication. “Our findings emphasize that vaccination is likely not only to protect the individuals who receive it, but also to reduce viral shedding and thus infection to the population,” he concluded. .. Israeli analysis It was released last week.

The virus is unlikely to be completely eradicated

Unfortunately, COVID-19 can completely shelve the idea of ​​simply disappearing from Earth, following the leadership of its 2003 cousin SARS.

Also, it seems unlikely that the COVID-19 vaccine will leave the recipient with lifelong immunity. Some vaccines, such as measles vaccinations, are one-time vaccines, while others, such as polio vaccines, are ineffective for many years. There are also vaccines that need to be prescribed annually, such as flu shots.As a nasty sign, COVID-19 Already reinfecting people A person who has recovered naturally from an illness. The rate of reinfection is not yet known, but many recipients of COVID-19 vaccines may be vulnerable to infection, especially if these vaccines may not work at all. It is reasonable to think. Up to 5 percent of recipients..

Unfortunately, this means that while humans are very good at stopping the killing of humans by COVID-19, they can still be infected 100 years later.

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