Coronavirus: Does Sweden understand the science correctly?

The Swedish strategy of keeping most of society open is widely supported. It was devised by scientists and is government-backed, but not all national virologists are convinced.

There is no blockade here. The photos are shared in the world of crammed outdoor seating and a bar with long rows of waterfront ice cream kiosks, but it’s a myth that life here will continue “as usual.”

At first glance, it has never been shut down. However, the data suggest that the vast majority of the population are at voluntary social distances. This is the heart of Sweden’s strategy to slow the spread of the virus.

Public transportation has fallen sharply, many are working from home, and most of the weekends on Easter are refraining from travel. The government also bans gatherings for more than 50 people and visits to nursing homes.

According to a major study by research firm Novus, around nine-tenths in Sweden is at least one meter away from at least one month ago seven-tenths.

How serious is the outbreak in Sweden?

The reaction of people through the eyes of the Swedish Public Health Service should be celebrated, albeit with caution.

Scientists’ approach may not be able to curb Covid-19’s spread, either as Sweden adopts sensible and sustainable plans or unknowingly rushes into an experiment that unnecessarily kills its population. Has led to weeks of global debate.

The previous epicenter of the virus, Stockholm, had a spike at the end of the week, which has slowed some to test growth, but the case is almost flat.

There is still space in the intensive care unit, and the new field hospital at the former conference hall is still unused.

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“To a great extent we were able to achieve what we were trying to achieve,” says Anderstegner, a national epidemiologist. “Swedish health care basically keeps working with a lot of stress, but it’s not a way to keep patients away.”

In contrast to other countries where political leaders face a national response to the crisis, Dr. Tegner leads most of the press conferences.

His tone is typically factual, with a strong emphasis on numbers, with few references to the emotional consequences of the crisis on the victim and his family.

However, the Swedish Public Health Service maintains a high recognition rating throughout the pandemic.

Why Sweden chose a different path

The Swedish decision by Dr. Tegner’s team to use simulation to make much of society more open than most of Europe was made by other scientists, including one behind the main report by Imperial College. It happened after predicting that the impact of the virus would be more limited on the size of the population than anything, London.

The report apparently influenced the British government to introduce lockdowns.

In addition, the Swedish Public Health Authority early pushed the idea that the majority of cases were likely to be mild.

However, he denied that the strategy was based on the overall goal of herd immunity.

The central aim was to introduce less stringent social distance measurements that could be maintained over time. Schools under the age of 16 remain open so parents can continue to work in key areas.

All other Nordic countries chose more stringent temporary restrictions, but some of these have since been relaxed.

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What do you see from the numbers?

Sweden, with a population of 10 million, ranks among the top 20 in the total number of cases in the world, despite testing only those with severe symptoms. More extensive checks on key workers have been introduced.

It has a higher mortality rate in terms of population size than anywhere else in Scandinavia.

Unlike some countries, Sweden’s statistics include residents of nursing homes, which account for about 50% of all deaths. Dr. Tegner admits that it is a major concern.

Foreign residents, especially those from Somalia who are likely to live in multi-generational households, are also overrated in the figure.

“Too many are dead,” said Claudia Hanson, an epidemiologist based at the Karolinska Institute, Sweden’s largest medical research facility. She is critical of the government’s approach, arguing that more societies should have been temporarily shut down in March while authorities were aware of the situation.

Dr. Hansson, one of the 22 scientists who wrote an abomination in a leading Swedish book last week, suggests that “a non-talented official” was in charge of the decision.

Man leading the Swedish response

However, head of state epidemiology Anders Tegner is widely popular in Sweden. A scientist with over 30 years of experience in medicine, he is known for his relaxed attitude and pullover preferences.

“He’s a modest person. People see him as a strong leader, but I think he’s not too loud to pay attention to what he’s saying,” says Swedish epidemiologist and science writer Emma Fran. Looks back. “I think it’s very encouraging for many.”

She claims that many national and international media are “in search of conflict” within the scientific community, but Understemner’s approach is “quite positive”, or at least “more than other strategies.” I believe there is a consensus that it’s not bad. “

Do Swedish people develop immunity?

History determines which country did it right. However, the latest scientific debates focus on the number of Swedish people who may have been infected with the virus without showing symptoms.

This is important because many scientists here believe that Sweden will have much higher immunity levels compared to those who live under more stringent regulations.

About one-third of people in Stockholm will be infected by the beginning of May, according to a report from the Public Health Department this week.

It was later corrected to 26% after authorities acknowledged the calculation error. But some of the prominent scientists have provided even higher numbers.

Former chief scientist at the European Center for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC), Professor Johann Giesecke, believes that at least half of all stockholmers will be infected by the end of the month.

That could be as much as half of Sweden’s population, says Stockholm University mathematician Tom Baker.

BBC

The infection has spread to people who think it’s okay, and people who think it’s okay, and most of the infection is delayed.

Until the vaccine was developed, epidemiology Emma Frans says immunity is “probably important” to Sweden.

“When it comes to research and other types of coronaviruses, it shows that people acquire immunity. Maybe not long-term immunity, but if you get only this kind of short-term immunity, this pandemic It may be enough to stop, “Dr. Fran says.

Why not known enough

The Swedish Public Health Service believes that the rate of asymptomatic infections affects the protection of the general population is “too early”.

Reuters

Of course, far more stockholmers are protected than in countries where not so many are exposed. But I don’t know if it will affect our lives in the short term

“We don’t know much about immunity yet,” says Anders Warrensten, deputy of Dr. Tegner. “As more and more people get tested for antibodies, the more time we have and reports of reinfections etc., we will know more.”

This uncertainty means there is no guarantee that Swedes in highly infected areas will immediately lift their social distance recommendations, he says.

Is this Swedish “exceptionalism”?

What happens next in Sweden can depend heavily on people maintaining social distances.

Professor Nicholas Ilot, a politician at the University of Södertorn in Stockholm, replied that some Swedes “explode nationalism” and “pride, Sweden deviates from European norms.”

He said, “It’s like a very deeply inspired chime, a Swedish specialty.

It may encourage some Swedes to follow the counsel, but the country is never united.

On social media, there were disagreements from some foreign residents defending more stringent measures.

On the other hand, there are signs that other people in Sweden believe that the worst of the crisis is over.

Mobile phone data suggest that residents of Stockholm spend more time in the city center than they did two weeks ago, and last weekend police were concerned about overcrowding of nightlife hotspots. Expressed.

“It’s not time to relax,” Prime Minister Stephan Lofven began spending more time with friends and family.

But it might be easier than it sounds, as spring weather comes after the infamous long, dark winter in Sweden.