When do you reach group immunity? As the number of variants of COVID-19 increased, competition became “a little more difficult”.National

Despite the challenges raised, many believe that there is a reason for hope to reach herd immunity at undefined points. Because many of the population are immune, the ability of the virus to spread is dramatically reduced.

Gypsy Amber Dousa, a professor of epidemiology at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said:

“That doesn’t mean there are no barriers — there are multiple barriers,” she said. “It only makes our race a little harder.”

The accelerating pace of vaccination, which is about 3 million doses daily in the United States, casts a shadow over the pandemic and the restrictions imposed to reduce it and return to normal after more than a year. Many people imagine.

Approximately 20% of the country is fully vaccinated and there is disagreement about the herd immunity threshold, but experts may place it in 70% of the population with some type of immunity. Often. This includes both those who have been vaccinated and those who have antibodies from previous infections. This is a partially overlapping group, as doctors recommend that people who have had the disease be vaccinated.

Due to the focus on vaccination, the recent increase in COVID-19 infections and hospitalizations in some states raises the risk of a four-fold surge in cases.

Concerns are focused on the so-called British variant of the coronavirus known as B.1.1.7. This is currently the cause of most new infections in the United States. This variant is significantly more contagious and deadly than the original virus, but current vaccines are effective against it and overall COVID mortality is on the decline.

Dr. James Campbell, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said:

The more people who are immune to the virus, the less likely it is that the virus will continue to mutate into more dangerous mutants, he said.

The time at which herd immunity is likely to be achieved depends on the schedule and on some little-known factors. How quickly can the vaccine be distributed? How many of those who are currently resisting them may change their minds? When will the FDA approve vaccines for children? How more jurisdictions will lift pandemic restrictions and how much will people adhere to existing restrictions and help prevent infections?

Dr. Wilbur H. Chen, an adult infectious disease specialist at the University of Maryland School of Medicine, said: “Or people who aren’t sticking to the obligations of masks.

“People are fed up with this and may not have the compliance we need,” advises Republican Governor Larry Hogan and advises the CDC on how to use and distribute the vaccine. Chen, a member of the association, said.

Still, Chen said he was optimistic that rising vaccination rates could prevent a recurrence of this past winter, when COVID cases and deaths surged.

“We will be in pretty good shape by late fall and early winter,” he said. “Usually it will surge without vaccine.”

According to experts, the number of people who need immunity to protect the entire population from COVID is like a moving goal.

There are many factors involved, but one thing is certain. Children, who make up 24% of the US population, need to be part of the equation.

“In the end, that would be the answer to keep COVID-19 away,” he said.

Campbell is the lead investigator in the Moderna vaccine trial in children under the age of 11 at Maryland Medical College and is part of a multi-site study that could lead to FDA approval for the population. Currently, only Pfizer vaccine is approved for children up to the age of 16.

Expanding the vaccine to the younger age group is important, and a recent national poll states that a quarter of American adults do not get the vaccine.

“Suppose 75% of adults are vaccinated. If children are not vaccinated, they will be below the herd immunity threshold,” Campbell said.

In Maryland, a February poll by Goucher found that nearly two-thirds of the population wanted vaccination. It was a rise from October, when almost half said they couldn’t be shot.

Mileah Kromer, an associate professor who directs polls, said:

Many have pointed out that African Americans are particularly wary of vaccinations due to the long history of medical professional abuse, especially in the past. However, Goucher polls show that there is little difference between black and white Marylanders, with 62% and 68% planning vaccinations, respectively.

“The story of October was that it was an African-American community,” Cromer said. “That’s not where we are now.”

Now she said resistance to the vaccine is more political and shows that Republicans, especially men, are opposed to being vaccinated. Nearly half of Republican men warn that vigilant health officials watching the fight against the pandemic are being drawn into political parties, from mask obligations to business restrictions and current vaccinations. doing.

According to Campbell, approval of vaccines for children will be phased in over time as the study tests young groups of children and different dose levels. He said that Pfizer’s test results between the ages of 12 and 15 have already shown 100% efficacy, and data from a similar study by Moderna is expected soon.

According to Campbell, this is probably a precursor to potential approval for that age group to be vaccinated by the next grade. But young students will have to wait longer near the end of the year, he said.

He and others are closely watching the recent rise in COVID indicators for signs of where the country is heading.

Hopkins’ D’Souza said her heart was depressed when she saw a photo of “Spring Breakers” having a party in a crowded place.

“I have the tools I need,” she said. People need to use them because they follow the now familiar guidelines for vaccination, wearing masks and social distance.

“The important thing is to be able to achieve immunity to the population,” she said.

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