California has the lowest COVID-19 rate in the United States: That’s why – Times Herald

After the devastating winter of the worst pandemic of the century, California witnesses a great deal of hope this spring.

Supported by the steady pace of vaccination and the immunity of those already ill, California currently has the lowest incidence of COVID-19 cases anywhere in the United States.

“The worst is behind us,” said Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of California, San Francisco.

On Wednesday morning, the proportion of 33 California cases per 100,000 people was less than one-third of the US average of 116 cases. By comparison, Texas was more than twice as likely as California, but Illinois and New York were four times, Florida five times, and Michigan ten times, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Meanwhile, California has the lowest positive test rate in the state — Only 0.9% of people tested for COVID-19 in the past week, or less than 1 in 100, had the disease. That’s a quarter of the national average, down from 14% of the state’s total four months ago.

“It’s great. Dr. John Swalzberg, Professor Emeritus of Public Health at the University of California, Berkeley, said:” It was an amazing few weeks. “

Death and serious illness that once overwhelmed hospitals are in persistent retreat. The number of people dying daily in California with COVID-19 is declining 90% from the peak in January. The state-wide death toll on Wednesday was 65, down from 684 on January 5. Hospitalization also decreased by 91% across the state.

Perhaps most notable is Los Angeles, California’s most populous county, which was a national hotbed of COVID-19 infections in December and January, in the yellow layer under the California system. It’s about to migrate. Soon next week, maybe San Francisco, Marin, etc. will join. Disneyland, a symbol of the Golden State, which has been closed for over a year, will reopen on Friday.

According to some experts, this trend is not yet fully understood by the general public and the media.

Dr. Monica Gandhi, a professor of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, said: “It’s a success story.”

Sure, the pandemic isn’t over. Michigan has recently suffered a surge in incidents. And this week, Oregon began tightening restaurant rules in Portland and other cities after an increase in incidents.

But Gandhi said California is unlikely to see a new surge like Oregon and other states.

She and other experts say California’s fate has improved for three main reasons. They all continue to protect the state from new spikes.

The first is a vaccine. More Americans are vaccinated daily after increased federal delivery of vaccines in a more streamlined system. On Tuesday, another 337,000 Californians were vaccinated. Overall, 61% (18.5 million) of California’s adults over the age of 18 receive at least one dose. According to the CDC. And that number is increasing by 1% every day. More importantly: 87% of people over the age of 65 in California received at least one dose, and this group was at greatest risk of death.

“You can keep a social distance from the mask until the cow goes home,” Gandhi said. “But the only way out of the pandemic is to create immunity to the pathogen in the population. Due to the mass vaccination rate, we will keep the case rate low.”

The second major reason for California’s reversal is innate immunity. Officially, 3.6 million people have been infected with COVID-19 in California since the pandemic began 14 months ago. But in some communities, especially Southern California, the numbers are much higher. When people survive the disease, they build antibodies and T cells that help fight future infections. That resistance lasts for at least eight months, and studies show that it will probably last longer. California used to suffer from more infectious diseases than other states, but is now better protected.

The third is the lack of variants. Other states, such as Michigan, have been hit hard by the so-called “UK variant” of COVID-19. It is 50% to 70% more contagious than the major strains. However, California has not seen a significant outbreak of that type. Instead, two “West Coast” variants, which are about 20% more contagious, prevailed. Researchers say Californians’ general willingness to wear masks, wash their hands, stay socially distant, and follow the state’s hierarchy of business resumptions has helped, but for unknown reasons. ..

“The West Coast variants seem to outperform other strains,” Swartsburg urged people to stay vigilant. “Why it’s beyond me, but it seems to be happening so far.”

What could go wrong?

“We have two big international airports, SF and LA, which fly people from all over the world,” says Rutherford. “I’m worried about variants. As more and more people get vaccinated every day, their concerns diminish.”

By June 15, California announced that Governor Gavin Newsom would lift restrictions on the tier system and rally, 70% to 80% of the population was vaccinated or had innate immunity, Rutherford said. He said he expected to reach herd immunity. Because I had suffered from COVID-19 before.

This will be a political boost, as Newsom is facing a scallop, according to political experts.

“COVID has become his centerpiece,” said Larry Garston, an emeritus professor of political science at San Jose State University, who writes a book about pandemics and recalls. “As long as the number of incidents is diminishing, it only helps him. This means that the condition is back to normal activity. The children are back in school. The business is reopening. At least In today’s situation, on the contrary, it’s the worst. “