Britain's economic problems are much bigger than 'recession'

It was very optimistic to think that Britain could change its way out of recession. After the Office for National Statistics (ONS) released GDP figures for the fourth quarter of last year, it looked like the recession had already begun, showing an economic contraction of 0.3% from October to December. Today the ONS reported no revisions to the figures. However, a slight upward revision would not have been enough to shake off the recession label.

This is still a technological recession. Last year the UK economy fell in the wrong direction. The UK would have avoided the definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of negative growth – had the third quarter figures not been revised downwards in December last year, from no growth to a 0.1% decline.

Even after today's update, ministers remain in the same position as yesterday. Despite the signs of a recession, we are quietly optimistic that things will soon improve. The January figures, showing growth of 0.2%, suggest the UK will emerge from recession in the first quarter of this year and confirm that recessions have been short and shallow over the past few years. But it will take some time to establish this. The first quarterly figures for 2024 will not be released until mid-May.

In the meantime, the government must continue to persuade itself that economic conditions are improving, a task made more difficult when the most recent data tells a different story. The chancellor is looking forward to data over the coming months to show that his rebound year is indeed underway. But evidence of past recessions alone is not enough to convince the public that things are actually better.

As yesterday's British Social Attitudes survey revealed, there is widespread disappointment with the public's level of access to the social services they pay for – in this case the National Health Service. The NHS has suffered record low approval ratings as people struggle to get GP and hospital appointments. But stagnating growth is also taking a toll. While the size of the economy took a huge hit in the second half of last year, GDP per capita has been declining for much longer. It is estimated that the average disposable income of workers this year will be less than in 2019.

In this sense, the economic recession Britain is experiencing is as much underestimated as it is exaggerated. The UK economy has experienced only the smallest contraction, but the economic damage inflicted on households by the pandemic and its subsequent economic shock has never really healed. The combination of stagnant growth and an inflationary crisis has led to a marked decline in living standards. This is the real problem with government. Doing away with the technical definition of a recession will not be the magic moment of economic recovery. Rather, it is more likely that Britain's economic problems will turn out to be much bigger than this recession label suggests.

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