Ukraine gets reprieve from US aid package after months of delays

Ukrainian military personnel monitor the situation along the front via drones in the direction of Kreminna, Ukraine, as the Russian-Ukrainian war continues on March 31, 2024.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Ukraine received a vital reprieve from the United States this weekend after the House of Representatives passed a $61 billion foreign aid package for kyiv, following months of delays and objections from the most radical republicans.

The bill, which includes additional aid for Israel and Taiwan, now goes to the Democratic-majority Senate which is expected to approve the legislation this week before sending it to President Joe Biden to sign into law.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy thanked U.S. lawmakers in the House for passing the bill, saying it “will prevent the war from spreading, save thousands and thousands of lives and help our two nations become more strong.”

But on Sunday, on social media platform , between the approval of the package and the strengthening of our warriors, “must be as short as possible.”

Time is running out for Ukraine, which is pleading for more air defense systems, artillery and munitions as its forces struggle to contain a wave of Russian offensives in eastern Ukraine.

Defense analysts say that while this funding could help breathe new life and morale into Ukraine's beleaguered military campaign, aid and supplies must be sent to Ukraine immediately.

“Ukrainian forces could suffer further setbacks in the coming weeks as they await U.S. security assistance that will allow Ukraine to stabilize the front, but they will likely be able to blunt the current Russian offensive at provided that the resumption of American aid arrives quickly”, estimate analysts. This is what noted the think tank of the Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington.

“Russian forces will likely intensify ongoing offensive operations and missile and drone strikes in the coming weeks in order to exploit the closing window of Ukrainian material constraints,” the ISW said in an analysis published Sunday.

A crew member of the Czech-made DANA 152mm self-propelled howitzer prepares the howitzer to fire on Russian positions near the occupied Ukrainian town of Bakhmut March 1, 2024 in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine.

Roman chop | World Images Ukraine | Getty Images

Ukraine's immediate priority is to replenish its artillery as well as air defense systems and missile stockpiles that have been depleted by recent Russian airstrikes, particularly those targeting Ukraine's energy infrastructure.

Matthew Savill, director of military science at the London-based defense think tank RUSI, noted that while acquiring new hardware could create a lag, the Pentagon said some military hardware had been prepared for advance to be given to Ukraine in order to minimize delivery times.

“This is unlikely to create immediate parity with the volume of Russian fire, but it will help narrow the gap,” Savill said.

Stay of execution?

Analysts note that while this latest tranche of aid will undoubtedly boost Ukraine's morale and boost its military operations, kyiv's long-term funding remains a bone of contention. They stress that new US aid is not guaranteed, particularly given the uncertain outcome of the presidential election later this year.

“This package of measures will be welcome for the Ukrainian army… but the bottom line is that this funding will probably only help to stabilize the Ukrainian position for this year and begin preparations for operations in 2025,” noted Savill from RUSI.

Certainty over funding through 2024 and 2025 will help the Ukrainians plan their defense for this year, according to Savill, especially if European munitions supplies also materialize, but “additional planning and funding will be needed for 2025, and we have American elections between now and then,” he said.

A Ukrainian serviceman drives a British FV103 Spartan armored personnel carrier on a road leading to the town of Chasiv Yar in the Donetsk region March 30, 2024, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Roman Pilipey | Afp | Getty Images

It is unclear whether U.S. aid to Ukraine will continue under a second term of former President Donald Trump, who has issued ambiguous and baseless statements about Ukraine and how he would end to war within 24 hours.

Timothy Ash, associate fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at Chatham House and senior sovereign strategist at RBCBlueBay Asset Management, supports the proposal to use billions of dollars in frozen Russian assets to help finance Ukraine and said the latest aid does not change the fact that Ukraine will continue to need significant financing.

“It should be noted that passage of the House's $61 billion plan does not change the narrative in terms of lingering doubts about long-term Western funding for Ukraine,” Ash said in comments sent by email Monday.

“Funding Ukraine to ensure victory in the war and successful reconstruction can only be ensured if the West raises its finger and allocates the 330 billion dollars of fixed assets to Ukraine,” a- he added.

Race against time

Before the House approved the aid package on Saturday, senior Western defense officials painted a grim picture of Ukraine's shortage of artillery and ammunition in the country's east. They warned that troops were rationing their use of shells.

A top U.S. general told Congress earlier in April that Russia was firing five artillery rounds for every shell fired by Ukrainian forces, and that this disparity could double in the coming weeks.

The inadequacy of weapons and manpower in eastern Ukraine, a region that has been compared to a “meat grinder” due to the Russian tactic of sending large numbers of newly mobilized and inexperienced troops to the frontline with the aim of overwhelming Ukrainian forces, has allowed Russian forces to make progress in recent months, strengthening their attempt to occupy the entire Luhansk and Donetsk regions.

A Ukrainian police officer walks past a destroyed residential building, following artillery and air raids in the village of Ocheretyne, near the town of Avdiivka, Donetsk region, April 15, 2024, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. \

Anatoly Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images

Russia has slammed the latest US aid plan for Ukraine, saying it would only bring more carnage to the conflict.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Saturday that the U.S. House of Representatives' approval of additional aid to Ukraine “would make the United States of America richer, would further ruin the “Ukraine and would lead to the death of even more Ukrainians, the fault of the Kiev regime.” Russian news agency Tass reported. Peskov's counterpart at the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, said the new aid package would “aggravate the global crisis.”

Russia's first deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyansky, was particularly scathing about the funding, saying there was “nothing to celebrate” and that Ukraine would “work a little more long time, more money would end up in his pockets, no more weapons.” will be stolen and tens of thousands of Ukrainians will go through the meat grinder.

“But the inglorious end of the kyiv regime is inevitable, regardless of this news [aid] and all the vain efforts of their supporters in the United States and NATO,” he said.

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