Does Israel need more US weapons for an offensive on Rafah? | Israel-Gaza War

The volume of US military aid to Israel since October 7 of last year suggests that the intensity of the assault on Gaza would not have been possible without the continued supply of bombs, shells and other American munitions, some of which are supplied by US President Joe Biden. now threatens to end after seven months of fighting.

It is difficult to obtain precise figures, in part because the United States is careful to keep its shipments below the limits to be disclosed and may rely on old congressional authorizations, sometimes dating back several years, to send weapons without the need for a new authorization. But even limited disclosure reveals their importance.

Officials privately told Congress in March that more than 100 separate foreign military sales had been made to Israel since Oct. 7, and a U.S. think tank reported that the Pentagon had at times struggled to find enough planes freighter to deliver the systems, because there was so much to wait for. shipped.

A permanent 10-year agreement, signed by then-US President Barack Obama in 2016, provides for the supply of $3.3 billion per year in arms since 2018, plus an additional $500 million per year for air defense systems. . On top of that, Congress last month approved additional military aid worth $13 billion, including $5.2 billion to bolster existing air defenses.

US military aid to Israel

It is a security relationship that began in the 1960s and to date the United States has provided more than $123 billion in military aid. According to the Stockholm Peace Research Institute, 69 percent of Israel's arms imports come from the United States, and breaks have been very rare. Ronald Reagan, as US president, once delayed the transfer of F-16 fighters in 1982, unhappy that Israel had invaded Lebanon.

During the current conflict, the Pentagon has only occasionally released details of the aid it has sent: $320 million in precision bomb kits in November and December 14,000 tank shells at a cost of $106 million, and $147.5 million for 57,000 155mm artillery shells and their detonators and primers. , plus 30,000 howitzer charges.

Meanwhile, the Israeli Air Force said that as of mid-February it had struck targets in Gaza 29,000 times, just over four months after the start of the conflict, as part of its efforts to eliminate Hamas. It is part of a strategy of saturation bombing that has killed 34,780 Palestinians, according to the territory's health ministry.

One surprise was that the United States was even considering supplying the 1,700 500-pound bombs, and particularly the 1,800 2,000-pound bombs, now suspended by Biden. A 2,000-pound bomb, four times heavier than the largest bombs the United States used against Isis in Mosul, is powerful enough to blow up a small building and leave behind a 40-foot-wide crater.

The American presumption was that these heavy, crude weapons, capable of killing dozens or more people in a highly populated area, would be used in a final Israeli assault on Rafah. Civilians have been killed in Gaza because of these bombs and other ways they attack population centers, Biden told CNN Wednesday evening.

Previously, 2,000-pound bombs were reported to have been used in strikes, including against the Jabaliya refugee camp on October 31, where at least 116 civilians were estimated to have been killed. Another estimate, by CNN, using satellite imagery, concluded that 500 large impact craters appeared in Gaza during the first month of the war through November 6, consistent with the use of munitions of 2,000 pounds.

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The question is: Without America's biggest bombs, how many bombs does the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have stockpiled? This is not an easy question to answer. In response to the October 7 attack, the United States opened access to its own weapons stockpile in Israel, the WRSA-I, which could have contained up to $4.4 billion worth of munitions. various types, according to a Congressional study.

The reality is that the limited category of weapons covered by Biden's pause apparently leaves other types of weapons available to Israel, including tank shells and artillery shells. The Israeli Air Force remains largely unaffected; The sale of 25 additional F-35 fighters was approved in March, part of a deal authorized by Congress in 2008.

In the short term, Israel is almost certainly able to continue, if it wishes, its threatened offensive in Rafah, despite the acute humanitarian crisis it is almost certain to cause among the million Palestinians who are desperately seeking refuge there. . But that would risk widening the military procurement gap with the United States.

An analysis by the conservative Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington, DC, suggests that Israel, which spent 5.3 percent of its GDP on defense last year (more than two and a half times its target) NATO), should increase its budget between 7 and 7% of its GDP. % and 8% to reduce (not eliminate) its dependence on foreign governments for the weapons Israel needs most. It is unclear whether this is sustainable.

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