To put it more bluntly: How Reform UK is gaining support in Wales | wales

Couple Maxine and David Griffin, crossing Gwent Square on a cold, crisp day in Cwmbran, have more in common with each other than they did a year ago.

In July, Brexit supporters voted for the British Reform Party in the Torfaen constituency. It was the first time that two people voted for the same political party.

Maxine, 52, who works in a cafe, has previously voted Conservative, while her husband, 55, a postal worker and union leader, has always voted Labor.

Maxine and David Griffin both voted for reform. Photo: Francesca Jones/The Guardian

I voted Conservative but apparently they are so terrible I won't vote for them anymore and Labor Party I won't vote Labor anyway, Maxine said.

For me the Reformers are more outspoken, whereas I always look for the Conservatives or Labor, they just hear what you want to hear. But when they come in, you know they don't do what they say.

David nodded and added: I don't believe it. [Keir] Starmer, that's why I voted for reform.

Lack of faith in politics is a continuing theme among voters interviewed by the Guardian. The majority said they would not vote for any party.

But it was easy to find supporters of British reform among those who would vote. It is no surprise then that the party is making noise in Wales, taking the lead in the country earlier this month and declaring itself the official opposition to Labor in the Senedd, which is currently due to hold elections in May 2026.

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The confidence comes after the party's Welsh conference in Newport on 8 November. At this time, several opinion polls suggested encouraging results for the party.

The valleys of southern Wales are home to a number of post-industrial towns that have been hit hard by the decline of the coal industry. It is similar to another goal in South Yorkshire that British reform leader Nigel Farage has also revealed is in his sights.

So who do we need to convince and what do we need to campaign about to make these predictions come true?

Olivia Jones, 32, a paramedic from Cwmbran, is mainly involved in politics on social media, particularly Instagram. Many of my friends repost various things about the Reform Party, and she explained that she would consider voting for them.

She said she just wanted to vote for someone else. I think Nigel Farage says things that mean more to me than many other people.

I think it has a lot to do with borders. People entering the country must undergo proper screening, [abide] In accordance with the correct laws. Reform stands firmly on that point.

Immigration is an issue frequently mentioned by voters in the city, but it is not limited to it. Many people are frustrated with the state of public services, as well as a general indifference and distrust of capital-centric politics, whether in London or Cardiff. Many cite Farage's charisma as his main attraction.

Ian Stevenson: Immigration is the biggest issue for me. Photo: Francesca Jones/The Guardian

Ian Stevenson, 45, originally from Birmingham but now living in Abergavenny, said: What has Labor done? They have taken money from everyone and the price of everything is going up. I just think they're ruining everything.

Stevenson said he liked Farage, considered him an honest man and was attracted to a party that took a harder line on immigration.

Immigration is the biggest issue for me, he said. Illegal immigrants and all the people coming in, and all the money being spent on them and taken away from other people.

Stevenson, who works in the security sector, said the increase in foreigners in Abergavenny had led to an increase in assaults by such earners in the town of 14,000. The Guardian found no evidence for these claims.

The only house in Abergavenny is available to: [foreign nationals]he said People who have been waiting in line their whole lives for their home, but they [foreign nationals] They are coming in and the best homes are being offered.

The Guardian was again unable to find evidence for these claims.

A sanctuary village was established in Abergavenny to better support the village's refugees. According to the group's website, there are currently seven families from Syria and four families from Afghanistan.

Frustration with Labor's 25 years of control of the Senedd was evident among many voters interviewed.

Marilyn Bevan said Farage seemed to be on most people's wavelength. Photo: Francesca Jones/The Guardian

Carer Marilyn Bevan, 65, from Abertillery, who previously voted Labor and has never voted Conservative, said: Labor doesn't do anything for where I live.

She cited anti-social behaviour, housing and potholes.

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They are taking winter fuel allowances away from pensioners. I will become a pensioner next month. Now the government is giving money to the rich and punishing the working class.

On the reform she said: I am listening to their views and what they say they will do and maybe I will give them a chance next time.

Farage appears to be good-natured and good-natured. He seems sincere. A lot of people say one thing and don't do it. He seems to be on most people's wavelength.

Bevan said anti-social behavior in his village included the use of e-scooters, open drug use and constant barking of dogs.

They know they can avoid it, Bevan said. Our concerns are ignored. Old people like me cease to exist after a certain age.

Malcolm Pearson: The Labor Party no longer represents the people. Photo: Francesca Jones/The Guardian

Malcolm Pearson, 78, of Malpas, a suburb of Newport, has voted Labor all his life but is now considering voting for reform in 2026.

Labor no longer represents the people. They represent Cardiff and London. They represent themselves.

Pearson cited claims that former Welsh Labor leader Vaughan Gething had accepted donations from convicted criminals. He said the UK government was penalizing pensioners by removing the winter fuel allowance.

Pearson, who was a diesel mechanic and worked on trucks before retiring, expressed his frustration with public services, citing as an example the nine-hour wait for an ambulance when his wife had pneumonia.

Survation's poll, commissioned by Reform UK, found the party led the Senedd election on 20%, with the Conservatives ahead on 17%, with Labor trailing on 30%.

A separate poll by Opinium, based on Westminster voting intentions, suggested 26% of Welsh voters would vote for reform, compared with 24% who voted Labour. 2,116 people were surveyed.

This party is undoubtedly popular in the country. Although it failed to win any Welsh seats in the general election, Reform UK came second in 13 constituencies, including many of the south Wales valley seats. The Conservatives came in second place out of 10 seats.

Joe Rossiter, co-director of the Institute for Welsh Affairs, an independent think tank, said the poll was credible and the party could perform much better in 2026.

Opinion polls showing between 14 and 17 seats are credible, and he doesn't think it's entirely out of the realm of possibility that it would go beyond 17 and into 20 seats, which would have significant implications, he said.

But he said predictions about a new electoral system were risky, citing recent changes introduced in the Senedd.

When it comes to defeating the Conservatives and becoming the official opposition party, Rossiter said, the Conservatives are doing very poorly when they should be on good terms. They have an internal conflict over whether or not they support the abolition of the Senedd, which is not a very popular opinion among Welsh people.

The concentration of support for reform in the south works to the party's advantage in Wales, he said.

The Reform voter base is currently geographically located in south-east Wales, the South Wales Valleys and parts of the North, which works to their advantage as it means they can win seats at the expense of a very wide base. He said the support is not specifically focused on any particular area.

In the 25 years since devolution, levels of poverty and economic inactivity in Wales have remained above the UK average. NHS waiting lists remain higher in Wales than in other parts of the UK. People are asking quite legitimate questions about the performance of devolved governments in these areas because they are devolved matters. People are also becoming increasingly aware of what is transferable and what is not post-pandemic, and it has been kind of an important moment in this regard.

This is a failure that can be blamed on the Senedd and the Welsh Government. That means there are a lot of specific, locally focused aspects that some people in Wales are really angry about, and Reform is doing a pretty good job of mobilizing them.

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