The falling COVID-19 case is a welcome surprise for British scientists

Given that there is still uncertainty as to whether the trend will continue, the government has not yet celebrated. “We don’t think we’re out of the forest yet,” a Johnson spokesman told reporters on Monday.

At the final stage of curbing in England on July 19, the nightclub was reopened and the festival returned with an unlimited crowd. In addition, wearing the required mask has ended. The government warned that the infection data has not yet explained it.

“The data will not include the impact of this change around next Friday,” Paul Hunter, a professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, told the BBC. Still, the numbers “look good, at least during the summer,” he said.

“Mysterious”

It was an unexpected improvement. Last month, Health Minister Sajid Javid warned that infection rates could spike to 100,000 cases per day. But he said vaccination “significantly weakened” the link between infection and hospitalization and death, so it is correct to proceed with the resumption.

Stephen Griffin, an associate professor at the University of Leeds School of Medicine, said:

Potential factors include “a large number of people” who chose to quarantine themselves in the last few weeks after contacting the incident, and many students returned home due to an incident identified in the “bubble” of the class. That is included. Many schools also started their summer vacation last week.

“There are also weather conditions that promote outdoor mixing and less indoor mixing, which can also reduce spread,” says Griffin. Still, he warned that confirming that these factors “interact during the summer and lead to new infections” is still a “very long-awaited game.”

Soccer fan

Another theory is that the European football championships in June and July caused a surge in short-lived Covids in the UK. Crowds surged not only at Wembley Stadium, but also in town squares across the country, in pubs and at home when the English team reached the finals.

The number of cases in Scotland began to decline faster than in the United Kingdom, prompting a suggestion that the team ended the contest early.

Mark Woolhouse, a professor of infectious disease epidemiology at the University of Edinburgh, said the decline in case numbers in Scotland now appears to be a “long-term trend.” He told the BBC that there were no signs that the case would be taken up since the tournament was over.

According to Adam Finn, a professor of pediatrics at the University of Bristol, there are “multiple factors” in reducing the number of cases, including “infection-induced immunity, vaccine-induced immunity, and, critically, behavior.”

Immunity

According to the Office for National Statistics, 9 out of 10 people in the UK may have Covid-19 antibodies because they have been infected with the virus or have been vaccinated in the past.

Over 70% of adults in the UK receive the two vaccinations needed for maximum prevention, and 88% receive one vaccination. “Every day, another recently immunized cohort is added to our protection along with those who have recently been infected, survived and recovered,” Finn said.

Still, there is ongoing competition to vaccinate more adults amid concerns that a sufficient number of young people may not come forward within the government. James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute at Oxford University, said:

Look at the ONS infection study, which is published every Friday, to see if the data support a new daily reduction in the number of cases. For Nicesmith, it was released on August 21st, the next milestone to “surely know the impact of the end of the blockade.”

The delay between infection and serious illness means that hospitalization is likely to increase at least in the next few days, even if the number of cases continues to decline. According to the latest daily data, 917 people were admitted to a UK hospital last Tuesday.

According to a government scientist model released this month, 1,000 to 2,000 people are hospitalized daily at the expected peak of the current wave in August, with the potential for 100 to 200 deaths per day. I warned you. There is growing hope that this will not happen.