The Hayward Volt earthquake could destroy over a million homes in the Bay Area

The next big earthquake in the Gulf region will force up to 1.45 million people from their homes, lead to the loss of 500,000 jobs, and restore the state’s economic production by 4.2%, according to a hypothetical earthquake scenario completed by the US Geological Survey.

In a report released this week, federal scientists detail the grim social effects of a theoretical 7.0-magnitude earthquake on the Hayward Fault. The findings, which come after a series of USGS reports on how the phantom quake affected issues such as engineering, point to a massive and widespread lack of preparedness in the region.

Scientists have based their analysis of earthquake turbulence on the Hayward Fault because they say a major earthquake there is inevitable. It is also perhaps the nation’s most active mistake, which makes preparation all the more important.

The hypothetical, but probable earthquake, determined by the US Geological Survey, was centered in Auckland and will cause so much shaking and instability on the ground, as well as possible fires, that one million apartment buildings, containing 1.37 million housing units, will be damaged.

The largest housing impacts will be in Alameda County and western Contra Costa County, although other parts of the Bay Area with older earthquake-prone buildings will suffer. These include around Novato in Marin County and around Vallejo in Solano County.

The earthquake will also tear apart many commercial areas in the Bay Area, with 7% to 8% of all workplaces damaged and 240,000 employees disabled. Supply chain problems, transportation fluctuations, and labor shortages will increase unemployment, causing nearly half a million jobs to disappear within the first year after the disaster.

Alameda and Contra Costa counties will bear the greatest employment brunt, losing about 15% of their jobs.

Statewide, economic output is expected to decline by $44.2 billion, or 4.2%, during the first six months after the earthquake.

This story will be updated.

Curtis Alexander is a writer for the San Francisco Chronicle. Email: [email protected] Twitter: kurtisalexander

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