Covid-19 advances towards endemic status in the United States as Omicron spreads

In other words, the Covid-19 pandemic has no end date. Rather, the crisis that involved the world within a few months of the discovery of the coronavirus in China has been felt normal for years, says infectious disease experts.

Joshua Siffer, associate professor of vaccines and infectious diseases at the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, said:

How quickly the endemic state is reached and how destructive the virus remains is what level of disease officials and individuals tolerate, the precautions they are trying to adopt, and the virus. It depends on how it evolves.

“This is a tug of war between society and the virus,” said Peter Chin Hong, an infectious disease specialist at the University of California, San Francisco.

Omicron shows how vulnerable societies remain, even in countries with relatively high levels of herd immunity. This variant accounted for 73% of new infections in the United States during the week leading up to December 18, an increase from 13% in the previous week, estimated by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Hospitalizations and deaths were already on the rise in the United States before Omicron was identified, and authorities said they expected their rapid spread to put more strain on the health care system.

As a new wave emerges, people and institutions are making decisions that reflect the changing attitudes of Covid-19 towards the threat. The Biden administration has been preparing to distribute 500 million free home-based rapid tests since January to improve vaccination capacity and place doctors and nurses in overloaded hospitals, but with a major closure. I’m not asking.

Federal authorities encourage people to be vaccinated and boosted, wear masks in public indoors, and take tests before gathering with friends and family on holidays. Some cities and states are moving to reinstate indoor mask policies or require vaccination certification to enter indoor public spaces.

During that time, people and businesses have responded differently to Omicron. Some are shrinking their holiday plans, while others are moving forward. Two years later, many are fed up with the pandemic turmoil and the precautions used to combat it. Some advances since last winter, including vaccines and rapid testing, could help this surge of people maintain the activity that was withheld last winter, public health experts said. rice field.

Charity Dean, a former assistant director of the California Public Health Service and co-founder of a public health company, said: Group Inc. “We need to be proactive and implement them now.”

Merck & Co. And new antiviral treatments by Pfizer Inc. are also expected to help reduce the social burden of Covid-19. For vaccine prospects, in early lab tests, Moderna Inc. And Pfizer Inc. And a third or additional dose of vaccine from partner BioNTech SE has been shown to be protective from Omicron. Testing and public health monitoring are also important.

Ali Khan, Dean of the Department of Public Health at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, said:

Still, Covid-19 and its effects are still there. Physiotherapist Noah Greenspan opened a rehabilitation clinic in New York City on Monday. He has been providing online services and small temporary clinics since October 2020.

“We are planning as if Covid would never go away,” said Dr. Greenspan.

Other companies are also adapting to the life of Covid-19.

Joey and Yana Cabell installed a temperature scanner at the Chart House restaurant in Waikiki, Honolulu, and staff checked the customer’s vaccine card at the entrance. They reduced the number of tables they set to stay 6 feet away, but they’ve been at full capacity for two weeks after the restrictions were relaxed. They have musicians who play live every day. Mr. Cabel said Omicron hasn’t kept patrons away.

“The reality of our Covid is that we have now endured the worst. We are back in our normal business,” she said.

The CDC states that the disease is endemic if it continuously circulates in the area in a predictable pattern at the baseline level. According to some public health experts, the lack of social turmoil is another hallmark of endemic disease.

The question is: how much risk and how many Covid-19 deaths do people and governments tolerate?

“Political and social aspects are involved here,” said Lisa Lee, an infectious disease epidemiologist and vice president at Virginia Tech.

In a typical endemic condition, each infected person infects only one other person, preventing runaway and exponential spread. According to some estimates, each person infected with the delta variant infected the other 3-8 people. Omicron is considered to be more contagious. Early evidence from locations, including South Africa, suggests that variants can cause less severe illnesses than Delta. Public health experts warn that slightly less toxic and highly contagious viruses can still overwhelm the medical system.

According to the CDC, Covid-19 is also a far more deadly enemy than the flu, an endemic disease that kills about 50,000 people in the United States during the bad season.

New strains of influenza can spur epidemics or pandemics if cases exceed expected levels.

More than 1,200 people die daily from Covid-19 in the United States. However, even at much higher levels of death and infection than typical of influenza, public health experts could settle for a pattern in which the spread of Covid-19 is sufficiently predictable to be considered endemic. Say it’s expensive.

How the virus continues to mutate, how long the immune response from previous infections and vaccinations lasts, and how the government actively tackles Covid-19 are all perpetuating society with the virus. Public health experts said it would affect the relationship.

Andrew Neumer, an infectious disease epidemiologist and demographer at the University of California, Irvine, who studies the 1918 influenza pandemic, said the waves from the Covid-19 variant have been struck for decades, especially in winter. He said he expected to hit the United States on a regular basis. As herd immunity rises, mortality is likely to decline over time, he said. The price is that more illness and death can occur among those who are most vulnerable to the virus.

“Covid is now part of woodwork. It’s part of furniture,” he said.