Analysis: Is Istanbul ready for a major earthquake? | Turkey and Syria earthquake news

Experts say Istanbul, Turkey’s megacity, should start preparing now for a powerful earthquake that could strike at any time and mobilize all available resources to save lives and study the economic impact.

Scientists who spoke to Al Jazeera said a major earthquake is very likely to hit Turkey’s largest city as the nation mourns the killing of tens of thousands of people in the country’s southeast a week ago.

More than 31,000 people were killed and 80,000 injured in earthquakes of magnitude 7.8 and 7.6 on the Richter scale – the epicenter of which was the city of Kahramanmaras – that occurred just hours apart on February 6.

The two earthquakes affected 10 provinces in Turkey and claimed the lives of thousands more in Syria, and the death toll continues to rise in both countries. Many victims are still trapped under collapsed buildings across the area.

The massive disaster raised the issue of earthquake preparedness in Istanbul, Turkey’s business and tourism capital that hosts some 16 million people. Scientists say that the giant city is under imminent threat from a powerful earthquake – possibly several.

“tension on the line”

Sukru Ersoy, a professor of geology at Yıldız Technical University in Turkey, said that historical data of past earthquakes indicated that one of the earthquakes is on a fault line under the Sea of ​​Marmara nearby.

“We know how much the North Anatolian fault line moves each year through research. The movement of the fault line will create tension on the line that will cause the earthquake,” he told Al Jazeera, but added that it is impossible to know exactly when it will happen.

“An earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher is expected in Istanbul according to the data we have,” agreed Huseyin Alan, Chairman of the Chamber of Geological Engineers.

Ersoy explained, “The fault line under the Sea of ​​Marmara has the potential to cause two earthquakes stronger than 7.0 magnitude in one year. We saw this in the Kocaeli and Duzce earthquakes in 1999, as well as in other earthquakes in the region in the past.”

An earthquake of magnitude 7.6 struck the western part of Turkey’s Marmara region in August 1999 and claimed 7,500 lives. Another 7.2 hit nearby Duzce, killing 845 in November of that year.

Turkey is located in a region with many tectonic plates, and earthquakes are most likely to occur around the boundaries between the plates.

The North Anatolian Fault line divides the Eurasian and Anatolian plates, and runs through the Sea of ​​Marmara south of Istanbul.

What can he do?

Istanbul produced 30.4 percent of Turkey’s gross domestic product in 2021, according to official data, making it the heart of economic activity in the country.

The megacity also hosts the country’s most vital production facilities which could severely damage Turkey’s industrial sector if damaged by a strong earthquake.

Ersoy said that the severe seismic activity affecting Istanbul and the rest of the country should be high on the authorities’ agenda.

“[Preparing for] Earthquakes should be the first project in both Istanbul and Turkey. We must start now, start quickly and mobilize all resources to prepare for an earthquake in Istanbul.

Meanwhile, Alan said Istanbul should put in place a comprehensive earthquake action plan, and vital infrastructure should be strengthened to prepare the city’s government offices, hospitals, military bases and fire department buildings so that emergency response is ready to be implemented after a strong earthquake. strikes.

“In the earthquakes in southeastern Turkey, many government buildings including hospitals and emergency response units collapsed,” he said, noting that these facilities could not help in disaster relief.

We have seen what happened when air, road and rail infrastructures were damaged by earthquakes. Help cannot get to the area fast enough.”

Alan said that the authorities must also accelerate the urban transformation of Istanbul “starting from the most vulnerable areas of the city to the topographic monuments.”

“Most of Istanbul is on rocky ground, so its land quality is relatively better than most of the cities hit by the recent earthquake in southeastern Turkey,” he said.

“However, buildings in Istanbul that are located around riverbeds, on coasts and lands filled in urban transformation, as well as buildings located in areas at risk of landslides, should be given priority,” Alan added.

The country’s building codes were updated after the 1999 Marmara earthquake and the Turkish Seismic Design Code was improved with new regulations.

In addition, the Turkish government has launched a city transformation project to replace old buildings with new ones.

During last week’s earthquakes, some newly constructed buildings collapsed, confirming criticism that the regulations were not implemented in a transparent manner.

Corruption is rampant in Turkey’s construction sector, Ersoy said, “therefore there have been violations” in some building inspections.

High-rise, high-stakes

Istanbul has grown rapidly in the past few decades due to immigration from other Turkish regions, mostly related to socio-economic factors.

With land becoming increasingly scarce, construction companies have begun building high-rise residences to meet the demand for real estate.

“These tall buildings can be affected by the earthquake that is expected to occur under the Sea of ​​Marmara. But it can also be affected by distant earthquakes – as in other regions – by surface waves due to their height,” Ersoy said.

According to data shared by Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu, out of some 1.2 million buildings in the city, about 90,000 buildings are in a “high-risk state” of earthquakes.

Another 170,000 buildings are listed as a “moderate severity condition,” according to research by the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality.

In last week’s disaster, says Murat Kurum, Minister of the Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change, 24,921 buildings collapsed in the region, and were urgently needed to be demolished or suffered serious damage.

Earthquakes can severely limit the economic development of a country, Ersoy said, and governments must be prepared to minimize their worst effects.

“When countries are hit by earthquakes, their investment initiatives go to the trash and they can’t make progress – similar to the wheels of a car stuck in the mud,” he said. “So we must be proactive and prepare before earthquakes.”

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