view | Erdogan’s reaction to the earthquake reinforced Turkey’s opposition

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ISTANBUL – The devastating earthquake that struck Turkey on February 6 could have unified the country. Instead, the disaster – which has claimed at least 46,000 lives inside the country – is widening the political divide between President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his opponents. With the general election just nine weeks away, Erdogan is facing a wave of public anger over mismanagement and misguided centralization.

After 20 years in power, Erdogan has been severely weakened by the earthquake. The opposition finally has a chance to beat him. But they shouldn’t assume it will be easy.

On March 6, opposition parties announced their decision to stand behind Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 74, the leader of the secular Republican People’s Party. The opposition alliance, which includes former lieutenants of Erdogan Ali Babacan and Ahmet Davutoglu, has laid out a sweeping agenda for reform, promising to restore democracy and the rule of law.

In conversations with Kilicdaroglu over the years, I have found him to be a thoughtful leader and a true democrat. He’s not a particularly charismatic figure but is widely seen as incorruptible – which matters a lot in a country where corruption is a persistent problem. The coalition led by Kilicdaroglu is currently leading in the opinion polls.

Last month’s earthquake certainly dampened the prospects for Erdogan’s opponents. Turks can see how the president’s policies exacerbated the effects of the disaster. The president’s authoritarian bargain with Turkish society – based on the promise of wealth, good governance and global prestige – is in shambles. But what should it be replaced with?

The challenge for the opposition will be to convince Turkish citizens that they can provide good governance while dismantling the one-man regime in the country. It won’t be easy. In 2017, Erdogan consolidated his power in a constitutional referendum, promising more efficient government. Now, it turns out his hypercentric approach has caused more dysfunction than anyone could have imagined. State institutions are full of incompetent loyalists who will not make decisions without a word from the man at the top. Building-driven growth created a corrupt system of patronage. Institutions have been unloaded, including the disaster relief agency AFAD. The Turkish Red Crescent had a reputation as a reliable worker in times of crisis. Now, it is mired in scandal and mismanagement.

But defeating the boss will not be easy. Erdogan still retains many of the most important levers of power. Key opposition figures such as Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtas or Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu are either languishing in jail or have legal cases hanging over their heads. The government is rolling out subsidies and grants aimed at strengthening Erdogan’s base. He controls the airwaves and the justice system.

Turkish citizens also care about their place in the world. “How do we look from the outside?” one man asked me. “Do we look like Pakistan?” Turks are used to seeing themselves as a rising power. Even before this latest disaster, Erdogan’s economic mismanagement had eroded the state’s finances and sent the currency into a downward spiral. Now, the shock of the earthquake is adding to the burden.

A senior opposition figure told me that coalition leaders worry the government may sow instability to persuade voters to maintain the status quo. He was alluding to the previous general election in 2015, which was preceded by a period of mysterious terrorist attacks and plots that ended up convincing voters to turn back to Erdogan for the sake of stability.

The general elections held on May 14 offer Turkey an opportunity to effect real change.

The people I spoke with in recent days were angry and anxious — about their children, about the future, about a possible earthquake that many scientists say is likely to hit Istanbul. They looked at the election with hope but also with fear.

The earthquake clearly showed that Erdogan and his presidential system have corrupted Turkey from within. The opposition deserves to win – but even if they do, it’s far from the end of the story. Solving Turkey’s endemic problems will be difficult even if Erdogan leaves the scene.

Exploiting public anger and promising democracy may not be enough. With elections approaching, the opposition needs to convince citizens that it can provide a safer and better Turkey after Erdogan’s one-man regime.

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