Is Bangladesh ready to face the wrath of an earthquake?

Hell broke out when a powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck Turkey and Syria killing around 59,000 people. Dozens of others have been injured and some 0.87 million people have been displaced. Infrastructure has also taken a huge hit with 6,589 buildings crumbling to the ground. Material damage was estimated at $89.2 billion. The repercussions of this one earthquake for the two countries are wide-ranging and long-lasting.

It is estimated that an earthquake occurs every 30 seconds somewhere on Earth. But the greater part of these are too weak to be recognized. A magnitude 4.0 earthquake is only equivalent to about 6 tons of TNT, but because the Richter scale is a base 10 logarithmic scale, the amount of energy released increases exponentially: a magnitude 5.0 earthquake is about 200 tons of TNT, and 7.0 is about 200 tons of TNT. 199,000 tons and 9.0 is 99,000,000 tons of TNT. About 99 million tons of TNT is enough to kill almost anything, and the equivalent of about 25,000 nuclear bombs, according to the USGS.

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Bangladesh is located where the three tectonic plates – Indian, Eurasia and Burma – meet. Currently, the Indian plate is moving northeast at about 6 cm per year and the Eurasian plate is moving north at about 2 cm per year over the Indian plate. There are five major fault zones in and around Bangladesh, namely Bogora fault zone, Tripura fault zone, Shillong plateau, Dawki fault zone and Assam fault zone. Thus, Bangladesh is the site of 13 earthquake-prone districts, and Chattogram, Chattogram Hill Tracts and Jaintiapur of Sylhet are still in high risk areas. In 2022, Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh, with 30,093 inhabitants per square kilometer was among the cities with the highest population density in the world. It is ranked as one of the 20 most earthquake-prone cities in the world.

Rajok has an area of ​​1,528 square kilometers under its jurisdiction. It includes approximately 2.1 million buildings. Due to the rapid expansion of Dhaka city, 65 percent of its area is filled with soft lands, such as Purpachal, Uttara III Project, Jhilmil etc. The soil, which was developed nearly 20,000 years ago, is the ancient and major part of Dhaka and is strong enough to withstand mild to moderate earthquakes. Structurally, Bangabhandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University (BSMMU), Dhaka University (DU), Jahangirnagar University, Jagannath University, Directorate of Engineering Education and Directorate of Public Health Engineering are the most vulnerable. While Rajuk allows buildings to be built, he only notes the architectural component, but not the structural design, which is most relevant in the context of earthquake resistance. In a 2018 survey, Rajok found that 94.76 per cent of structures in Mirpur, Muhammadpur and Ballapi, 93 per cent in Rampura, Motigil and Khilgaon and 89 per cent in Dhanmundi did not meet pre-design and structure requirements. There are approximately 0.6 million buildings of five floors or more in Dhaka which are the main targets of the earthquake disaster. The Rana Plaza collapse in 2013, which killed at least 1,132 people and injured more than 2,500, is a stark example of violations of existing rules and regulations regarding building constructions contributing to a human tragedy.

Since records of earthquakes were compiled in this part of South Asia, we have been hit by seven strong earthquakes. In 1885, a magnitude 7.1 earthquake occurred in Sherpur, Bogora. In 1762, an 8.5-magnitude earthquake created St. Martin’s Island in Bangladesh. The last great earthquake, the Assam earthquake, which registered 8.5 on the Richter scale, occurred in 1950, and was 780 miles from Dhaka. Experts believe that a magnitude 7.0 earthquake occurs every 100 to 150 years, and a magnitude 8.0 earthquake recurs every 250 to 350 years. If this is true, then it is clear that a severe earthquake is knocking at our door, ready to strike at any moment.

There are two phases of seismic disaster management. First, preventive measures before the earthquake. If one Tk is spent in prevention, that saves us Tk 10 when disaster strikes. It includes strict rules, regulations, monitoring and an early signal system. Typically, there is a time period of 20 to 60 seconds left, when actions such as turning off all electric, gas and water lines can be arranged through a built-in automated process. Burnt bricks should be avoided and replaced with concrete tiles, which are cheaper and give greater shock absorption during earthquakes. We should focus more on earthquake research to develop suitable local adaptive technologies for early detection and immediate mitigation of hazards. National policies and programs require firm political commitments and accountability of responsible authorities. The government has guidelines and plans such as the Bangladesh National Building Code (BNBC) 2015 to deal with the aftermath of the earthquake, but implementation on the ground has always proved to be an abject failure. There are also guidelines for making existing hazardous buildings earthquake-proof through the “retrofitting” method, which is both efficient and less expensive. BNBC-2015 stipulated that a house should not be built without beams. But the rules are not followed.

The second phase is post-earthquake where we need to build capacities for rapid response, rescue and evacuation operations and appropriate treatment facilities in hospitals. We need dedicated facilities across the country to provide shelter for the homeless after an earthquake. A large number of volunteers and rescue teams must be trained. We need to widen our appallingly narrow roads to allow civil defense and firefighting vehicles to navigate easily to the destination. In addition, we need advanced technology and modern mechanisms to recover people from collapsed buildings. All medical facilities need a contingency plan, ample manpower, ambulances and medical stocks. There must be sufficient coordination between the various agencies that will work immediately after the earthquake. A mere 492 fire stations across the country, with a meager 13,058 fire service and civil defense workforce, is not enough to weather a major earthquake.

Although Rajuk is solely responsible for determining the seismic vulnerability of buildings in the area under their jurisdiction, unfortunately in the last 12 years they have not prepared any list yet. In Bangladesh, we have about 40 to 50 private facilities that have the capacity to monitor building construction. It’s time to get them involved as a third party to support Rajuk, Chattogram, Khulna, Rajshahi Development Authority and city companies.

Several years ago, many small tremors signaled the imminence of a large-scale earthquake that would soon hit us. If this happens, then the question of whether we are ready to deal with it and move on relatively unscathed will become useless. Unfortunately, the current answer is not very reassuring. The recent earthquakes in Türkiye and Syria have diverted our eyes. The heartbreaking image that appeared in ‘Prothom Alo’ on February 7, 2023 of a Turk holding the hand of his dead daughter, trapped under a massive concrete slab, may become the reality of our helplessness in the face of nature’s wrath. The sooner we acknowledge our shortcomings and action, the better for our safety. We aspire to be a developed country by 2041, but our hard-earned development and infrastructure like Padma Bridge, Jamuna Bridge, Karnafuli Tunnel and ambitious bridges across the country will collapse within seconds, if we don’t take measures to protect us before it’s too late.

Dr. Zulfaqir Ahmed Amin is an expert in healthcare and hospital management. He is a former director at BSMMU Hospital and a freelance writer.

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