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The latest map of the Cascadia subduction zone finds high-risk areas for PNW earthquakes
Cascadia earthquakes are expected to occur every 300-500 years. The last 9.0 magnitude earthquake struck the Pacific Northwest 324 years ago.
PORTLAND, Ore. (KOIN) — A new study mapping the Cascadia subduction zone is giving scientists clues about the state of the fault line as the Pacific Northwest awaits a potentially catastrophic earthquake.
To map the 700-mile-long region, which stretches from Northern California to Vancouver Island, researchers boarded a 235-foot vessel off the coasts of Oregon, Washington and British Columbia during the summer of 2021, as first reported by The Washington Post.
“We didn't really have a good picture of where the fault zone was,” said Susan Carbutt, the Hazen Lamont Research Professor at Columbia University and lead author of the study.
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Other fault lines have small earthquakes that are “triggering all the time,” which helps researchers map those areas; However, the Cascadia subduction zone is “very quiet,” making it difficult to pinpoint, Carbot told KOIN 6 News.
The researchers wanted to map the area to determine the location of the rift between the downward-facing Juan de Fuca plate and the overriding North American plate.
Cascadia subduction zone
“This is the fault that generates the very large earthquakes that have occurred in the past in Cascadia, and we expect them to occur in the future, and the part of the fault that generates the large earthquakes is offshore,” Carbot explained.
During the study — published June 7 in the journal Science Advances — the researchers towed a hydrotransmitter from the ship to emit sounds that resonated from the seafloor and the large thrust fault, and were picked up by 1,200 microphone-like instruments.
Researchers boarded a ship off the coasts of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia during the summer of 2021 to map the Cascadia subduction zone — where they discovered a single plate near Washington that is smoother and more likely to be an earthquake hotspot. (Courtesy of Madeline Lucas, University of Washington.) Cascadia subduction zone during the summer of 2021 Using a hydrometer to emit sounds echoing off the seafloor that were picked up by microphone-like instruments to get a better understanding of the fault line (Courtesy of Madeline Lucas, University of Washington.) Researchers map the Cascadia subduction zone during the summer of 2021 Using a hydrometer to emit sounds echoing from the seafloor that were picked up by microphone-like instruments to get a better understanding of the fault line. (Courtesy of Madeline Lucas, University of Washington.)
The researchers then used different sounds and algorithms to create images of the fault line and its density that resembled X-rays or ultrasound, Carbot said. The researchers were then able to create a map of the area.
Researchers created a map of the Cascadia subduction zone showing the depth of the tectonic plates and their division along the region. (Courtesy Science Advances.)
The researchers found that the Cascadia region is “more complex” than previously thought. According to Carbot, the fault surface is divided into “different geometries.”
“The geometry of the fault plane and how it is divided is very important for the types of earthquakes we can expect and for the shaking that is generated, and of course the tsunami risk,” Carbot said.
The researchers also found that part of the region is “significantly flatter and smoother” from southern Vancouver Island through Washington state, posing a greater risk of major earthquakes.
“Based on other studies of global subduction zones, we know that these are the conditions that appear to be associated with the largest earthquakes. So, the flatness and smoothness of the large thrust in this region means that the fault plane is also likely to continue further offshore than the parts to the south,” he said. Carbot: “This has important implications for vulnerable populations living in the area.”
While there is still “a tremendous amount to learn” about Cascadia, Carbot said marine studies are important because that's where huge earthquakes are generated.
Cascadia earthquakes are expected to occur every 300-500 years, with the last magnitude 9.0 earthquake hitting the region 324 years ago, extending from Northern California to British Columbia.
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The earthquake triggered a tsunami that traveled to Japan and created a “ghost forest” on the Oregon coast.
University of Oregon seismologist Diego Melgar previously told KOIN 6 News that recent earthquakes like the 9.1 magnitude quake in Indonesia in 2004 and the 9.0 magnitude earthquake in Japan in 2011 tell scientists what to expect when a “big one” hits an area. Cascadia subduction.
“We're looking at big tsunamis, a lot of strong shaking, and the shaking lasts a really long time. That's something really different about these events. Yes, it's strong shaking, it can last minutes. So, imagine not being able to stand up for three or four Or five minutes, and imagine the forces our buildings, bridges and dams would have to endure in order to overcome this event.
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