Turkey-Syria rapprochement expected to be gradual, analysts say

But as Damascus regained ground, Erdogan changed course. Since 2022, senior Syrian and Turkish officials have been meeting in Russian-brokered negotiations, with Moscow pushing for a detente.

Erdogan said this month he could invite Assad to Turkey “at any time,” while Assad has said any meeting would depend on its “content.”

Mona Yacoubian, vice president of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the U.S. Institute of Peace, said that no normalization “will happen overnight… even if there is an Assad-Erdogan meeting.”

Given the complexity of the case, she said, “it will be a very gradual and lengthy process.”

But “even a semblance” of normalization “is something Erdogan is looking for,” she added.

Since the start of the war, Syrians, including opposition figures, have flocked to Turkey, which now hosts around 3.2 million refugees.

Anti-Syrian sentiment and economic hardship have increased pressure on Erdogan to return them.

“Syria and Syrian refugees have become a huge burden for Erdogan,” said Aaron Stein, president of the U.S.-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.

“Ankara's investment in the Syrian opposition, from a military point of view, is a complete failure,” he added.

A Turkish Defense Ministry source said Thursday that “Turkey is in Syria to eliminate terrorist attacks and threats against its territory… and to prevent the establishment of a terrorist corridor in northern Syria as a fait accompli,” referring to Kurdish forces.

Turkish troops and Turkish-backed rebel factions control swathes of northern Syria, and Ankara has launched successive cross-border offensives since 2016, mainly to rid the area of ​​the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Assad said this week he was open to meeting with Erdogan, but stressed that “support for terrorism and the withdrawal of Turkish troops from Syrian territory” were “the essence of the problem.”

According to Stein, if Erdogan says a meeting with Assad is possible, it could happen.

“But in this process, it takes two to tango, and his dance partner is a murderer who hates him,” he said.

The US-backed, Kurdish-led SDF led the battle that dislodged Islamic State jihadists from their last remaining shreds of Syrian territory in 2019. The Kurds established a semi-autonomous administration covering swathes of the north and northeast.

Assad accuses the Kurdish administration of “separatism” and considers the presence of US forces in SDF-controlled territory an “occupation.”

Turkey considers the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG), which dominates the SDF, to be an offshoot of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which it considers a “terrorist” group.

Any rapprochement between Syria and Turkey raises serious concerns among the Kurds, who risk seeing their hard-won gains from years of war wiped out.

Soner Cagaptay, director of the Turkish research program at the Washington Institute, said Ankara “wants Assad to eliminate the PKK so that the organization goes dormant.”

This would mark the beginning of a “real normalisation in the northwest, with Turkey gradually committing to withdrawing its troops,” he said.

A transitional deal could see Erdogan recognize Assad's authority in northern Syria while keeping security “in Ankara's hands,” with Turkey's ultimate goal being to repatriate Syrian refugees to the region, he said.

But “the trickiest part” is that many civilians in Turkey-controlled areas of Syria do not want to live under Assad and could turn against Ankara, Cagaptay added.

Northern and northwestern Syria have been the scene of anti-Turkish protests in recent weeks and demonstrations in 2022 as relations begin to thaw.

In the Kurdish-controlled northeast, Stein noted that the U.S. presence would make any Syrian-backed Turkish offensive against PKK-linked groups more difficult.

“The only tool available is the Adana agreement… which allows Turkish operations within a few kilometers of the border,” Stein said.

Under the 1998 deal, Damascus agreed to stop supporting the PKK and expel its fighters from Syrian soil after Turkey threatened to intervene militarily.

Yacoubian said it remained to be seen whether the Adana deal could be “reoriented” now that the Kurds control large swathes of territory.

The moves toward normalization could “preempt a potential shift in U.S. policy” toward Syria and troops there, she noted, with U.S. elections on the horizon.