Rolex Paris Masters: tennis predictions and best bets

The final ATP Masters 1000 event of the 2024 tennis season has arrived, as the world's best players compete in Bercy for the Rolex Paris Masters. With that in mind, I'll be shutting down all the action for the next week. That continues with my tennis predictions and best bets for Thursday, October 31st. Keep reading for some of my favorite selections for this loaded slate.

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2024 Record: 818-806 (+35.80 units)

Francisco Cerundolo vs… Stefanos Tsitsipas

These two clashed in Basel last week and Tsitsipas emerged with a 6-3, 6-7 (3), 7-6 (4) win in two hours and 34 minutes. However, Tsitsipas should have won the match in straight sets. After winning the first set, Tsitsipas broke Cerundolo to start the second set. But the Greek star lost focus while serving at 4-3, allowing Cerundolo to break back and get his foot in the door. Cerundolo ultimately stole that set and almost won the match. This time I don't think Tsitsipas will take his foot off the accelerator. And the circumstances could also suit him a little better.

Even though Tsitsipas has had an up-and-down season and has been really disappointing for almost two years, he is still an elite server now. Over the past 52 weeks, Tsitsipas' retention rate is 86.4%. That's not as high as when he was at the height of his powers, but he's still able to serve and hit his spots. And on these fast, low-bounce tracks, it should be impossible to break it. And that's why I don't really believe in Cerundolo in this place. He is not a player who takes advantage of opportunities, so he may not break through even if Tsitsipas gives him some chances.

On the other hand, Cerundolo has only been in control 77.0% of the time over the last 52 weeks, and tends to put in one or two bad service games every set. So even if Tsitsipas isn't exactly a returner, he should be able to break through and make the most of some return games.

I'm not sure Tsitsipas will get the job done here in straight sets, but I think he has a lopsided set in him. That should be enough if he ends up winning the match, and I certainly think he will. Cerundolo has plenty of weapons from the baseline, but Tsitsipas' forehand will be the biggest on the court.

Betting: Tsitsipas -2.5 games (-120)

Alexei Popyrin vs… Karen Khachanov

I thought Khachanov would run out of power against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and I'm still nervous that fatigue will be a factor sooner or later. But the Russian is just playing so well at the moment because he is playing at an elite level and is also returning very well. Mpetshi Perricard had gone seven straight games without being broken, but Khachanov broke him three times on Wednesday. Well, that match was great preparation for a meeting with Popyrin, another big server with a shaky base game. Sure, Popyrin is much better than Mpetshi Perricard from the start, but he's not a better player from back then than Khachanov. So if Khachanov can just avoid loose service games, he should win this match.

Khachanov is also 3-1 against Popyrin in his career. One of those victories came in early 2024, when Khachanov was playing miserable tennis. Now that the Russian is back in action, I don't see him letting this one slip away. Many players start to slow down this time of year, but Khachanov is trying to keep himself going so he can enter 2025 with momentum.

I know Popyrin had some big wins over Matteo Berrettini and Daniil Medvedev earlier in this event, but this will be a completely different animal. Over the past two weeks, Khachanov has looked like a combination of both guys.

Bet: Khachanov ML (-133 – 1.5 units)

Added plays

I usually have MUCH MORE on the Pro Picks page. These plays count towards my record and are a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I'll probably add a few more, so refresh that page throughout the day if you're looking for action. That's also where I put my Challenger-level plays, as well as lower-level ATP and WTA event picks.

Tennis links

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Tennis odds

Gill Alexander's Beating The Book podcast