US elections are a defining moment for Ukraine and future aid

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy speaks during his meeting with Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (not pictured), in the vice president's ceremonial office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the campus of the White House in Washington, United States, on September 26, 2024.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Tensions are likely high in kyiv ahead of Tuesday's U.S. presidential election, a vote that could make or break ongoing aid to Ukraine.

The latest NBC News poll shows a “deadlocked race” between Republican candidate and former US President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate, current Vice President Kamala Harris.

For kyiv, the big problem is what support and financial support it will continue to receive after the departure of the leader from the White House, Joe Biden, who served in office throughout the Russian war in Ukraine.

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After almost three years of fighting, there is no doubt that funding fatigue is setting in among kyiv's biggest military supporters, particularly the United States, despite continued public displays of support for Ukraine from from the White House and NATO.

It is widely believed that a Trump administration and hardline Republicans would be much more hostile to the idea of ​​providing more military aid to Ukraine, which would significantly inhibit its ability to continue fighting Russia. However, it is also likely that even a pro-kyiv administration, led by Kamala Harris, which has pledged continued support for the war-torn country, may have difficulty convincing U.S. lawmakers to provide financial support. much more important to Ukraine.

kyiv officials say the elections are being closely watched amid fears future aid could be cut.

“Of course, we understand that this is one of the possible scenarios that would be very unfavorable for Ukraine,” a senior Ukrainian official, Yuriy Sak, told CNBC last week.

“But for our part, we will do everything to continue to convince our American partners to keep funding and support at the same level, because the alternative is bad for all parties concerned, including the United States of America,” he declared. added.

“Of course, we are following what is happening very closely. We have our opinions on the different candidates, but… we hope and expect that whoever the next president is, the United States of America will continue to support the Ukraine until we win and restore a just peace.

: Ukrainian soldiers run for cover from attacks by the Russian army as the war between Russia and Ukraine continues in the town of Toretsk, Donetsk, Ukraine, July 5, 2024. The situation on the Toretsk front is tense.

Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

Ukraine relies on its international partners for the military, humanitarian and financial means necessary both to maintain the economic functioning of the country and to remain militarily capable of retaliating against Russian forces entrenched in southern Ukraine and against those who are progressing slowly in the Donbass region, in the east of the country. the country.

The Kiel Institute for the World Economy, considered one of the most reliable trackers of foreign aid to Ukraine, estimates that the United States has spent nearly $108 billion on military aid , humanitarian and financial since the start of the war in February 2022 until August. 31 this year, while member states and EU institutions (like the European Investment Bank and the European Commission) collectively spent €161.11 billion ($175.47 billion on this aid) .

The likelihood of funding drying up

U.S. largesse to Ukraine has become an increasingly difficult sell to U.S. lawmakers, with months of delays and objections from hard-line Republicans over a $61 billion aid package. dollars which was finally adopted in the spring.

A crucial factor for Ukraine is whether Democrats or Republicans will dominate Congress after the election, a deciding factor in how much power the future president wields and the extent to which he or she is able to financially support or thwart l 'Ukraine.

Donald Trump strongly suggested he would end military aid to kyiv, after saying he would end the war within 24 hours of being elected, without providing further details on how he would do so. Analysts say it is likely that Trump views blocking funding as a way to stop the war by force.

His running mate JD Vance is explicitly opposed to further aid to Ukraine, arguing that the United States should encourage kyiv to reach a peace deal with Russia and be willing to cede land to Moscow.

Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump gestures during a rally with his vice presidential running mate, U.S. Senator JD Vance, in St. Cloud, Minnesota, U.S., July 27, 2024 .

Carlos Osorio | Reuters

Trump immediately ending funding to Ukraine would be an extreme scenario, according to Berenberg Bank economists, but it is a distinct possibility from a politician known for his unpredictability.

“Although Europe is the largest donor to Ukraine, U.S. military assistance is vital to kyiv,” Bank Berenberg said in emailed comments last month. “Unless Europe quickly steps into the breach and delivers, say, 50 billion [$54.1 billion] bonds to be able to buy from the United States the weapons and ammunition that Ukraine needs but that Europe cannot produce, Putin could win the war of attrition, forcing Ukraine to submit. »

Although a Harris election victory would be a relief for kyiv, given that she has vehemently promised that her administration would support Ukraine “as long as it takes,” neither she nor Washington has ever clearly defined the exact meaning of his statement, what Ukrainian victory looks like or whether there is a limit to American aid.

In the week before the presidential election, Western officials reportedly said a Harris administration would likely struggle to pass significant aid to Ukraine through Congress.

CNBC contacted Harris and Trump's campaign teams.

Make Russia pay?

The leaders of the Group of Seven (G7), a group of industrialized countries, considered short-term “Trump-proof” aid to Ukraine before the November 5 elections, agreeing at the end of October a loan of 50 billion of dollars to Ukraine which will be supported by frozen Russian assets.

The G7 said it would begin disbursing the funds before the end of the year, essentially before a new U.S. administration can return to the deal.

However, if the United States abandons funding for Ukraine in 2025, Europe will have to support kyiv in the future, making the thorny issue of continuing to use funds from a large pool of frozen assets of the Russian central bank as the vast majority of concerns. taking place in Europe is an urgent matter.

“Now $50 billion [agreed by the G7] This looks like a lot of liquidity, but it's only 3-4 months of Ukraine's financing needs,” Timothy Ash, emerging markets strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said in emailed comments last month .

He is among those pushing for about $330 billion in stranded Russian assets to be seized and allocated to Ukraine to help it continue its fight against Russia, and he has noted the reluctance of some countries of the EU who fear that Russia will retaliate against such a decision. Some nations have more to fear than others; Currently, around $191 billion of all Russian fixed assets are held at the Belgian central securities depository, Euroclear.

Democratic presidential candidate and U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris shakes hands with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, as they meet in the Vice President's ceremonial office in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building on the House campus Blanche in Washington, United States, September 26, 2024.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Ash said he would urge any future Trump administration to pressure the EU “to release all $330 billion in assets to Ukraine.”

“Ukraine could then finance its own defense and reconstruction,” he said, noting that the country could perhaps even commit to spending a large part of these funds to purchase defense equipment from states. -United.

“$150 billion spent in the United States over ten years would be the largest foreign defense purchase in U.S. history. It would save American taxpayers from writing checks to Ukraine, would guarantee thousands of U.S. defense industry jobs, help win “Ukraine must fight the war and build its own defense against a future Russian attack, all financed by the aggressor Russia,” he said. Ash suggested.

A precarious future

Whatever the outcome of Tuesday's vote, analysts agree that Ukraine faces a precarious future amid declining Western support and funding fatigue.

Tim Willasey-Wilsey, a senior research associate at the Royal United Services Institute, a defense think tank, said the “immediate peril” for Ukraine comes from the 2024 U.S. presidential election.

“The next presidential election in the United States represents the most dangerous point. A victory for Donald Trump could lead him to call Russian President Vladimir Putin as early as November 6. Such a call would raise hopes of a negotiated settlement, with discussions could begin in the first months of 2025,” he said.

Then President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a joint press conference following their summit July 16, 2018 in Helsinki, Finland.

Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images

In such a deal, Willasey-Wilsey said it was unlikely that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could secure the recovery of the Russian-occupied Crimean Peninsula and the Donbass region of eastern Ukraine , or that he receives reparations for the massive damage caused to his country. It is also likely that a negotiated settlement would stipulate that Russian officials will not be tried for alleged war crimes.

A more serious blow could be that a peace deal ends the pursuit of the Holy Grail for Ukraine's future NATO membership.

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