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How big is the risk? Amid the murmur of the earthquake, experts warn against panic

How big is the risk? Amid the murmur of the earthquake, experts warn against panic

 



This map shows large regional earthquakes over the past 110 years. -Photo: NOAA/USGS

Social media posts are sparking fear in the Caribbean, claiming that a massive earthquake is imminent in the region.

A recent YouTube video from the St. Vincent Times, viewed by nearly 50,000 people over the past week, was alarming in its claims of an imminent earthquake threat, said Elias Papadopoulos, an engineering seismologist at the University of the West Indies Earthquake Research Center. .

“The podcast points out what is already known in the region, which is that large earthquakes can occur. They use certain phrases just to create panic in the viewers,” Papadopoulos explained.

A number of earthquakes have occurred in the region in recent weeks, including a 6.8-magnitude earthquake that struck southeastern Cuba on November 10.

Cayman Islands Risk Management Director Dani Coleman told the Cayman Compass that her team had been in contact with the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency and the University of the West Indies, and there was “no conclusive evidence to support the conclusion that there was an unusual or serious event.” High risk of an earthquake near the Cayman Islands.

The Oriente transform fault line extends south of the Cayman Islands. Red dots represent historical earthquakes. -Photo: USGS

For many years, Risk Management has been going into schools, giving presentations on the proper way to prepare and respond in the event of an earthquake, and offering free risk education presentations to businesses, government departments, church groups, and nonprofit organizations. It also has preparedness information on its website.

Coleman encouraged people to contact Risk Management and arrange a presentation.

“While there is always the remote possibility of a major earthquake due to our location near a transform line or strike boundary, these events are incredibly rare, but that does not mean we should completely ignore the threat of earthquakes,” she said. .

“Of course, we should all know how to respond to keep ourselves safe when we feel the ground shaking.”

“Residents should be aware of the ‘crouch, cover and hold’ procedures during an earthquake,” she added.

Other strategies to mitigate the threat in advance include attaching bookshelves to walls and moving heavy items to lower shelves to reduce the risk of items falling, she said.

Seismic features in Cayman

The Cayman Islands are located in a seismically active area, and although earthquakes occur infrequently, they can occur at any time and without warning. Just south of Cayman Island lies the Cayman Basin, an oceanic depression 870 miles long, 60 miles wide, with a maximum depth of more than 23,000 feet that extends from southeastern Cuba in the east to Honduras in the west.

On January 28, 2020, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake occurred 80 miles east of Cayman Brac – Image: USGS

The Cayman Basin is a tectonic plate boundary between the North American Plate, which is moving westward relative to the Caribbean Plate at a rate of 15-20 mm per year. As a result of this differential motion, earthquakes sometimes occur along plate boundaries.

In December 2004, a 6.8 magnitude earthquake was felt 20 miles south of Grand Cayman by residents of the Cayman Islands. Most recently, on January 28, 2020, a 7.7 magnitude earthquake occurred, with its epicenter about 80 miles east of Cayman Brac.

Although very little structural damage was reported following the major 2020 earthquake, more than 50 craters opened in various locations across Grand Cayman, and there were several small aftershocks in the days following the event. In Cuba, the event destroyed 300 homes and killed one person.

The January 28, 2020 earthquake that struck Cayman opened this sinkhole on Seven Mile Beach, and several other craters. – Image: file

A number of other large earthquakes (greater than magnitude 7.0) have occurred in our area in the past few decades. The Swan Islands Transform Fault, located southwest of the Cayman Islands, generated two of the largest strike-slip earthquakes in the Caribbean – a magnitude 7.3 event in 2009 and a magnitude 7.8 event in 2018.

On the Oriente Fault, which runs south of the Cayman Islands toward eastern Cuba, in addition to the 7.7-magnitude event in 2020, there was a 7.7-magnitude earthquake in 1852 and a 7.4-magnitude event in 1917.

This NASA satellite image shows an overlay of regional plate tectonics. “Forgotten danger”

The Cayman Islands government installed a local seismic network more than 30 years ago. However, there is no earthquake expert in the Cayman Islands, so the Cayman Islands government cannot at present determine the location of local tremors. The USGS is the official source of seismic event information.

“Sometimes it's more difficult to prepare for earthquakes, because they happen infrequently. Some people have called it the 'forgotten danger,' and people tend to ignore or forget about the earthquake threat,” Coleman said.

“We are also fortunate in the Cayman Islands in that we have strong planning laws, and our building codes are enforced, and they include seismic load components that help mitigate the threat. So, our built environment and structures are relatively strong, and are usually able to withstand even very large shaking events.” .

The Cayman Islands use the International Building Code 2009, which does not address design standards for earthquakes of a specific magnitude; Rather, it gives design parameters for buildings based on regional seismic zones, seismic risk exposure groups and seismic performance classes. One such parameter used is the peak ground acceleration, which is a measure of the acceleration of an earthquake on the ground.

Sources

1/ https://Google.com/

2/ https://www.caymancompass.com/2024/11/22/how-big-is-the-risk-amid-earthquake-murmurs-experts-warn-against-alarmism/

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