The fight against the coronavirus is progressing, but Texas is far from herd immunity

Perhaps she can go to California for a wedding reception she missed last year. She hopes to spend a month in Australia next January.

“The vaccine has opened the planning stage. Tickets have not been purchased yet, but they are in the planning stage,” she said. “And we can start seeing a future that may look more like normal than we had.”

Early signs of progress

Above 2 million COVID-19 cases Since the pandemic began and killed more than 35,000 people, state officials confirmed in Texas need it if the state can reduce deaths and increasing stress on hospitals and turn the virus into a benign state. It states that it is considered the first of many victories. It is circulating.

The current strategy is to “limit the severity and mortality of the disease. Of course, I think this is the correct answer,” said former medical care at Dallas County Health and Welfare Services, CEO of Prism Health, North Texas, Texas. Dr. John Carlo, director, said. A member of the COVID-19 Task Force of the State Medical Association. “But I think we also need to understand that this strategy is not really designed to reduce the overall case rate as quickly as possible.”

To date, Texas has given more than 3 million vaccines to 29 million residents, with approximately 48 million vaccines distributed nationwide, accounting for just over 14% of the population. I will.

Before reaching herd immunity, professionals and health leaders say when people can begin to return to part of their lives before a pandemic, such as family gatherings, travel, reduced isolation, and face-to-face school education. I’m hesitant to predict. They urge continued masking, social distance, and good hygiene to continue the fight against the virus, even as more people are vaccinated.

Dr. Jason Bowling, Principal Epidemiologist at University Health in San Antonio, said: “Everyone wants to get this done, but we need to remember the lessons learned over the past year.”

In texas 2 million people I received my first dose of Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, but both require two doses to be fully effective. About 370,000 people (about 1% of the state’s population) receive both doses, which promises about 95% efficacy.

According to health experts, people who have recovered from COVID-19 infection have some degree of innate immunity, but it is unclear how well they are protected from another infection or how long that immunity lasts.

Governor Greg Abbott recently launched a third vaccination in Texas as a single-dose vaccine from Johnson End Johnson heads for urgent approval next month and the federal government has promised to increase vaccine supply. He said the state was optimistic. It has the potential to expedite the voluntary vaccination of 8 to 10 million people in the current priority group, including healthcare professionals and people over the age of 65.

At that point, the state could launch the vaccine “very quickly” and make it available to a wider range of people, Abbott added.

But any timetable can quickly go crazy with the advent of Rapidly popular variants Appears in the United States, including Texas. Dr. Peter Hotez, Dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston and co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital Vaccine Development Center, said he was worried because the vaccine supply was still too low to inoculate most people. It was.

Early efforts to vaccinate the most vulnerable people These new strains He said it would make the infection rate even higher.

For Hotez, this is a compelling argument to loosen the current phased vaccination program and inoculate as many people as possible, regardless of risk level, as soon as possible.

“In fact, we are in a bit of competition between vaccination and the emergence of these new variants,” Hotez said.

A new strategy soon?

Recently President Joe Biden Presentation That the federal government was trying to reach an agreement with the manufacturer he said would allow all eligible Americans to get their shots by the end of the summer. Biden has set a goal of immunizing 100 million Americans in the first 100 days of his inauguration, but says it could reach 1.5 million per day by that deadline.

Meanwhile, the federal government said it would increase the weekly minimum shipment to the state by 16% starting next week.

Biden also promised Mobilize Federal Emergency Management Agency and National Guard We will support distribution efforts and install thousands of mobile vaccine units.

As the new administration strengthens its national strategy, local health authorities across Texas are eagerly looking forward to reaching a pandemic turning point if the promised increase happens as planned.

In Brownsville, where 94% of the city’s Hispanic population is disproportionately affected by the virus, the goal is to vaccinate up to 50% of the population by the time the next large dose surge becomes available. That’s what it does, said Dr. Arturo, director of public health at Brownsville, Rodriguez.

“At that point, we really want to be able to move faster … [when] That’s what the federal government, not just us, actually has some boots on the ground, “Rodriguez said.

In the neighboring Hidalgo County, which has one of the highest death toll in the state, as of last week, about 10% of the region’s most vulnerable population had been vaccinated, said Ivan Melendez of the Hidalgo County Health Department. I will.

“What do you want to see at least 30-40% before you see the actual impact?” Melendez said. “How far are we from that? I’m probably going to say 6 weeks.”

In Austin and Travis County, officials said the threat of overwhelming the health system could be largely resolved by early spring if the city could vaccinate most of its high-risk populations. Mark Escott of the Austin-Travis County Interim Health Department said.

“Does that mean we can be completely relaxed as a community? No,” he said. “Because there are many young people [than 65], You may still have some stress in the hospital. But it can be managed by masking and distance … to buy additional time to vaccinate other people. “

Mitchell Ferman and Mandi Cai contributed to this report.

Disclosure: Texas Children’s Hospital, Texas Medical Association, University of Texas System is a financial supporter of the Texas Tribune, a non-profit, non-partisan news organization partially funded by donations from members, foundations, and corporate sponsors. is. Financial supporters play no role in tribune journalism.Find the perfect one List them here..