Health
Vaccination alone does not completely contain the virus: UK study
Vaccination of all adults in the UK is unlikely to achieve herd immunity and is completely contained Coronavirus, According to a modeling study published in The Lancet Infectious Diseases Journal. The authors said that gradual release of control measures, high vaccine intake, and high protection against infection are essential to minimize the wave of future infections.
The analysis was performed prior to early real-world data from vaccination deployment studies. Preliminary findings suggest that vaccination provides a level of protection against infection, but the exact level is still unknown. For this reason, the authors considered different levels of protection against infection.
The authors do not consider the emergence of new mutants that may reduce the defense of the vaccine or the effects of reduced immunity that may require additional vaccination. It states. They also state that they cannot see the effect of mitigating individual controls.
The study combined and modeled UK vaccination deployments and interactions with various scenarios of mitigation management measures to predict R numbers and mortality and hospitalization. COVID-19 From January 2021 to January 2024.
The model assumed that vaccine intake was 95% for ages 80 and older, 85% for ages 50-79, and 75% for ages 18-49. Vaccine protection against symptomatic disease was estimated at 88% based on Phase 3 study data for the Pfizer-BioNTech and Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines administered in the United Kingdom. Vaccine protection against infection was different in four scenarios (0%, 35%, 60%, 85%).
Researchers suggest that vaccination can significantly reduce R, but may not be sufficient to keep R below 1 without other control measures. In the most optimistic scenario of protection from infection (85%), the R number is estimated to be 1.58 in the absence of other controls.
Vaccination alone is not expected to result in an R below 1, so removing all restrictions after vaccination deployment is complete is expected to lead to another wave of infection with a significant number of deaths. The magnitude of future waves and the number of deaths will be affected by how quickly and on what time scale measures are mitigated, the level of protection against vaccine infection, and vaccine intake.
The authors considered the sudden release of some measures with a vaccine that provides 85% protection (from current limits to a situation comparable to September 2020), from January 2021 to January 2024. The number of deaths was calculated. The February 2021 partial release killed 130,100 people by January 2024, while the April 2021 partial release brought this to 61,400 and the June 2021 partial release to 53,900. It declined and highlighted the impact of the deployment of vaccination programs. All of these estimates include 49,300 deaths already occurring this year.
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