The COVID vaccine could stop the “fourth wave” in the United States, but the rest of the world is not so lucky.

Following the news from the United States where daily COVID-19 cases occur does not tell. 80% decrease in the last 10 weeks — And where they keep falling.

If you follow the news from the UK, you won’t know it.There, a daily case It plummeted 90% in the same period..

And you will certainly not know it by following the news from Israel, there Normal life has almost resumed..

However, despite rosy views from several selected countries, the total number of COVID-19 cases worldwide is actually increasing now. In fact, after peaking on January 11th and halving the following month (the first overall decline in the overall pandemic), global cases reversed course in mid-February and began to recover.

Since then, new daily cases have increased by almost 20 percent overall. In France, it has increased by more than 30%. In Brazil, it has increased by more than 50%. In Italy, it has risen by more than 80%. In India, it has increased by more than 110%.

In other words, the dreaded “fourth wave” has arrived — even if it hasn’t arrived in the United States.

These divergent trajectories provide a nasty preview of the next stage of the pandemic and plague everyone, including residents of countries such as the United States, United Kingdom, and Israel, where the virus appears to be finally retreating. must.

why? The only major difference between these recovering countries and the rest of the world is immunity, so both the species obtained from previous infections and the species obtained from vaccination in the future. As more dangerous variants take over, countries hit by high vaccination rates are (almost) enduring onslaught. This is (almost) not the case in countries that have been hit hard with low immunization rates. This suggests that the virus will continue to spread, evolve and threaten to dodge our defenses until vaccinations increase everywhere.

And it’s not just someone else’s problem. The more vaccines developed countries buy, and the slower some countries vaccinate their populations, the more likely they are to be purchased by poor and unprotected countries. Serves as a breeding ground for variants, Prolongs the risk for everyone.

The story continues

Consider the data. To date, more than 56 percent of Israel’s population has been vaccinated at least once.number Other major countries are approaching. After all, Israeli researchers now estimate that more than 90% of residents over the age of 60 have some degree of immunity through either vaccination or previous infections.

as a result, New hospitalizations among these older Israelis have fallen by nearly 80% in the last two months — Even if a more contagious and deadly British variant, known as B.1.1.7, has replaced all other strains in the country.The fact of hospitalization Not so declining among young inhabitants It just proves the point: they are less vaccinated. It should change soon.

Meanwhile, Israel’s latest blockade ended a month ago and the economy fully resumed last week. At similar intervals since the country’s last blockade, the average number of people infected with one infected person is already 1.1, increasing, showing an exponential spread. (Anything above 1.0 means an increasing outbreak.) Today 0.68..

Neither the United States nor the United Kingdom has vaccinated such a large proportion of its population. But they are doing much better than most countries, which shows that. Almost 38% of UK residents have taken at least one dose so far. Over 80% over 60.. (The UK is delaying booster shots by up to 12 weeks to start vaccination of as many people as possible as soon as possible.) On average, COVID-19 deaths in the elderly in the United Kingdom It decreased by 63% between February 19th and March 5th, compared with 53% in non-elderly people. This indicates that vaccination has begun to reduce numbers, independent of other factors such as recent blockades.

At the same time, at least 73.7 million Americans have been vaccinated once, which is more than 22 percent of the population.More More than two-thirds of the elderly I started vaccination. Layers on the foundations of America’s existing innate immunity — experts estimate that about 35% of the population is already infected — and the virus is beginning to struggle to find new hosts. This is largely due to the rapid spread of B.1.1.7, which is expected to account for more than half of all previous US infections, but has decreased by 15% in US cases in the last two weeks. It mainly explains why hospitalizations have decreased by 23%. End of the month — even if the resumption accelerates.

This does not mean that the United States has defeated the variant. Recently, the number of cases nationwide has peaked at about 55,000. Cases continue to decline in most states, It starts to flatten and even creeps up In many cases Northeast and Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Upper Midwest..

Michigan may be the most disturbing example.There is a case Increased by 84% on average The last two weeks. Hospitalization has increased by 31 percent.It may not be a coincidence, but the five major Huzhou Next to Florida With the number of B.1.1.7 cases detected among residents, there is (yet) no warm weather that makes outdoor gatherings in the US Spring Break capital very easy.

Similarly, New York City’s 7-day average positive rate is Below 6% a month — Probable result, Authorities said this weekOf the local variant that describes Increasing share of new cases in the city.. Overall, the number of new cases per capita in New York and New Jersey is now at least twice the national average, with stagnation rates in nearby Rhode Island, Massachusetts and Connecticut raising concerns.

But in the end, experts expect downward pressure from accelerated US vaccination efforts. Is starting to expandDespite protecting vulnerable older people from hospitalization and death and protecting frontline workers from infections and infections earlier than planned, upwards due to mutations beyond the initial priority group It relieves most of the pressure and ultimately suppresses it. In short, the United States may see some flattening during the final descent from the pandemic. However, as the days of vaccination pass (currently an average of 2.5 million times every 24 hours), the chances of a full-fledged fourth wave are becoming less and less likely.

Sadly, that doesn’t apply anywhere else.

As B.1.1.7 spread throughout the European Union, the number of cases increased by 52% last month.In many countries such as Estonia, Hungary, Poland, Sweden, France, Italy, Austria and even Germany The curve is steeply sloping upwards.. However, none of these countries was able to administer at least one dose to more than 15% of the population. Most of them are doing much worseAustria was 9.3%, Sweden was 8.3%, Germany was 8.2%, Italy was 8.2%, France was 8.2%, the EU as a whole was 8.1% and Poland was 7.9%.

On Thursday, Dr. Hans Kruge, Director of the European Region of the World Health Organization, told reporters, Europe Vaccination level is too low Slow down the transmission. He added that Central Europe, the Balkan Peninsula and the Balkans have the highest number of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the world.The recent suspension of the AstraZeneca vaccine — and the hesitation it may still stir up that European drug regulators have I thought it was safe and effective — Does not solve the problem.

Most of the rest of the world is even behind. In Brazil, cases increased by more than 50% last month, but only 5.1% of the population has been vaccinated at least once. In India, where the number of cases has increased by more than 110%, only 2.2% of the population receives a single dose. Morocco is the only African country that has fired at least one shot on more than 5% of its population, and no country in Asia or Oceania is approaching that number.

Of course, vaccination is not the only reason COVID-19 is currently hitting harder than elsewhere. But that is the main reason, along with innate immunity, why it is unlikely that a true 4th wave infection will occur in some places, and even the 4th wave in others may not be the last. That’s why.

The outline of the new world, which is divided between those who have the vaccine and those who do not, is already in shape. For some, normal life is imminent. For others, the crisis continues, with all its confusion and danger. Meanwhile, the virus will continue to mutate as long as it spreads somewhere.

By the end of May, the United States will be vaccinated about 500 million doses. This is enough to completely vaccinate all adults in the country.Anyway, the White House Book more than 1.2 billion dosesIt is enough to give the entire population of the United States twice, then some vaccinations. As expected, most wealthy countries have placed similar orders.most Developing countries.. As such, Europe is not only responsible for more efficient deployment in its own right. It owes the world — with a more equitable distribution of doses to follow. Until then, the waves will continue and in most cases the pandemic will not end.

____

Read more from Yahoo News: