Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet, marking the end of the emergence of a third axis in the Middle East

MENASource

March 15, 2024, 10:39 a.m. ET

Turkey and Egypt bury the hatchet, marking the end of the emergence of a third axis in the Middle East

By
Barzou Daragahi

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit to Egypt on Feb. 14 marked a milestone in diplomatic relations between two countries that have gravely opposed each other during a rare period of political and ideological divergence that lasted nearly a decade.

The carefully choreographed and worded meeting between Erdogan and his Egyptian counterpart, President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi, also served as the final funeral ceremony for what was once an emerging third axis in the Middle East. This axis was distinct from the Saudi-led camp of pro-Western Arab states, which includes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Morocco and Jordan, as well as the self-proclaimed Iran-led Axis of Resistance. and composed of Lebanese Hezbollah. , the Houthis of Yemen, the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria and the Shiite militias in Iraq.

This partnership included Turkey, Qatar, and political movements and parties in the Middle East and North Africa rooted in the Muslim Brotherhood and Sunni political populism that peaked in the region after the 2011 Arab uprisings. last visited Cairo in 2011, when he came to address the Arab League while pro-democracy and Islamist protesters were still triumphantly celebrating the overthrow of longtime President Hosni Mubarak. In the aftermath of the Arab uprisings, Erdogan, then Turkish Prime Minister, was hailed as a rock star by Arab activists and Western thinkers for his country's perceived model of moderate Islamic principles within a secular democracy.

SUBSCRIBE TO THIS WEEK’S NEWSLETTER AT MIDEAST

At the time, Sissi was an obscure but powerful senior army officer and member of the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces, the body that seized power in Egypt after toppling Mubarak in 2011. He emerged from the shadows in 2013, dismissing and imprisoning democratically elected officials. President Mohamed Morsi and the reconstruction of Mubarak's autocratic military regime, but with himself at the center.

Erdogan led the way in condemning the coup, viewing Morsi as a political fellow traveler. Türkiye welcomed They are mainly Egyptians, mostly Muslim Brotherhood or Islamist-leaning dissidents fleeing Sisis' purges and mass arrests, allowing activists to launch television channels and operate relatively freely. Egyptian authorities abruptly canceled Erdogan's planned visit to the Gaza Strip via its border with Sinai. Just months after the coup, in November 2013, diplomatic relations between Egypt and Turkey were severed. downgraded.

Erdogan likely saw in Sissi the type of military autocrat who had undermined Turkey's democratic aspirations since the founding of the republics. The generals sent one of Erdogan's political idols, the popularly elected Adnan Menderes, to the gallows in 1961, and removed his former political mentor, Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan, from office in 1997 .

Relations between Turkey and Egypt have remained tense for years. Egypt is getting closer to Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who considered the Muslim Brotherhood their sworn enemy.

In 2017, the Gulf States, with the support of Egypt, launched an unprecedented blockade against Qatar due to its geopolitical ambitions and support for populist Islamic groups. Turkey came to Doha's aid, not only by airlifting emergency supplies, but by deploying additional troops, expansion a security cooperation agreement that the countries signed in 2014.

Although tensions have grown since Sisis's coup, the blockade and its consequences can be seen as marking the emergence of the third axis.

After Morsi's death in prison in 2019, relations between Cairo and Ankara deteriorated. Erdogan called Sissi a tyrant and accused him of having a direct role in the deposed president's death. deceased of a heart attack suffered while in court. They are so cowardly that they could not even deliver his body to his family, Erdogan said. Meanwhile, Egyptian officials have accused Turkey of supporting terrorist groups.

The divide has had an impact on trade. Turkey exports to Egypt fell to a twelve-year low of $2.3 billion in 2017, while Egyptian exports to Turkey has sunk to a twelve-year low of $1.2 billion in 2015.

Even more dangerous, Turkey and Egypt, along with their respective partners, have found themselves on opposing sides in armed conflicts and political struggles in the Middle East and North Africa. Ankara supported the Syrian rebels, while Sissi research to ease tensions with President Assad. Türkiye looking for a commitment with Iran even as Cairo's Saudi and Emirati partners, supported by then-US President Donald Trump, were grappling with Iran. foreground to confront Tehran.

But the civil war in Libya was the most perilous and decisive battleground between the Saudi-led axis and the Turkish side. Cairo and Abu Dhabi channeled arms and fighters, including warplanes as well as Russian Wagner military forces, to warlord Khalifa Haftar's eastern-based army as he launched an attack on Tripoli in 2019. Turkey, with the possible financial support from Qatar, openly channeled arms and military advisors to help. defend the government in Tripoli, which included elements of the Libyan branch of the Muslim Brotherhood. It was in Libya that Turkey succeeded for the first time deployed the now famous Bayraktar drones. They helped push back Haftar's forces in a costly and bloody proxy war.

At the start of 2021, the blockade of Qatar ended thanks to an agreement brokered by Washington and Kuwait. Ending the dispute made sense. On the one hand, Morsi was dead. The Muslim Brotherhood and its descendants were wiped out, as were political reform movements across the Arab world. Haftar's costly gamble failed. Turkey has succeeded in inserting itself into the Arab world, establishment semi-permanent military presences in former Ottoman lands, including Libya, Syria, Qatar and Somalia.

In fact, there was no longer any reason to fight.

Standing alongside Erdogan in February, Sissi said he welcomed this current period of calm in the region. I hope we can draw inspiration from them to achieve lasting solutions to outstanding disputes, he said.

A few days after the meeting between Erdogan and Sissi on February 14, Türkiye bare Turkish citizenship acquired by the former head of the Muslim Brotherhood branch Mahmoud Hussein and his wife, as well as around fifty other members of the organization.

Continuing to hold grudges would harm both countries. As tensions eased, trade rebounded. Turkey exports to Egypt jumped up to $4.5 billion in 2021, an increase of 43% from the previous year, and to $4.5 billion in 2022. Egyptian exports to Turkey increase from $2 billion in 2018 to a ten-year high of $2.6 billion in 2021 and an all-time high of $3.7 billion in 2022.

Have fun with Egypt, with END the free rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in Turkey, was also probably necessary for rapprochement with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, as well as access to their reservoirs of information. liquidity amid an economic crisis and the most daunting political challenge Erdogan has faced since 2003. During his public appearance in Egypt last month, Erdogan said the two countries were committed to doubling their trade volume. He spoke of collaboration on defense and energy projects, particularly on gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean.

If de-escalation between the two countries began in earnest in 2021, it likely would have started earlier if Morsi had not died, an event that sharply intensified the rhetoric between the two countries. Aside from economic interests and a regional shift toward more multipolar diplomatic postures, Erdogan's political ideology began to shift in 2015. It was at this point that he abandoned all hopes of courting pious Kurdish voters or the liberals who had once supported him, and instead took the same hard line. nationalists who tormented his ideological ancestors for decades.

Egypt and Turkey nearly descended into armed conflict in the late 1950s as the Arab nationalist movement led by Gamal Abdel Nasser sought to draw Syria into Egypt's temporary unification with Iraq. But the latest rift between Egypt and Turkey is abnormal. Two militaristic nations ruthlessly obsessed for decades with territorial security and the empowerment of privileged elites have clashed dramatically not over a border or resources, but over questions of principle, including popular legitimacy, human rights and political teleology.

Before his historic visit to Cairo in 2011, during which he spoke to activists in Tahrir Square, Erdogan was due to visit Mubarak as part of a major state visit, presumably to break the pattern of agreements he recently made with Sissi. Erdogan canceled This visit focuses on the president's response to the ongoing protests in Tahrir Square, a testament to the far-reaching impact of the Arab uprisings.

Listen to the cries of the people, the extremely human demands. Without hesitation, satisfy the people's desire for change, Erdogan said.

The tremors from the 2011 earthquake have long since dissipated. The region has settled into a duller status quo, dominated by autocrats who share profits behind closed doors. Both Erdogan and Sissi have hinted at their support for the Palestinian cause amid Israel's Gaza offensive, but the two countries are unlikely to take bold steps to address it. in this regard. For the foreseeable future, relations between Turkey and Egypt will focus on large energy deals, tourism and the expansion of lucrative trade ties.

Barzou Daragahiis a journalist who has covered the Middle East, North Africa and Europe for American and British media since 2002. He is also a non-resident fellow of the Atlantic Middle East Security Initiative Council. Follow him on X:@borzou.

Further reading

Image: Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi attend a signing ceremony in Cairo, Egypt, February 14, 2024. Murat Cetinmuhurdar/Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS ATTENTION EDITORS – THIS PHOTO WAS PROVIDED BY A THIRD PARTY. NO RESALE. NO ARCHIVES.