Erdogan seeks revenge for 2019 defeat as Turkey heads towards elections

Turks will vote next Sunday in local elections as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, buoyed by his good results in last year's general elections, aims to reconquer Istanbul.

The Republican People's Party (CHP), the secular opposition, regained control of the city – Turkey's economic powerhouse – in 2019 for the first time since before Erdogan ruled it as mayor in the 1990s. 1990.

Those decisive 2019 elections also saw the opposition recapture the capital Ankara and retain power in the crucial Aegean port city of Izmir, shattering Erdogan's image of political invincibility.

Erdogan has instructed his former environment minister, Murat Kurum, to run for mayor of Istanbul in the March 31 elections.

He is seeking to avenge the worst political defeat of his two decades of rule, when his main CHP rival, Ekrem Imamoglu, took the mayoralty.

The powerful president rebounded last year to win a tough presidential election that took place amid an economic crisis and a massive earthquake that claimed more than 53,000 lives in Turkey.

Erdogan now aims to reconquer Istanbul, the city where he grew up and where he launched his political career as mayor in 1994.

Imamoglu edged out an Erdogan ally in a 2019 election that made international headlines for its controversial cancellation.

He won another vote with a large majority, making him an immediate hero for the opposition and a formidable foe for Erdogan.

'Glimmer of hope'

The 52-year-old is widely seen as the opposition's best bet to win back the presidency from Erdogan's AKP party in 2028.

“Imamoglu is an effective political operator and currently represents one of the few rays of hope for voters who oppose Erdogan and the AKP,” said Anthony Skinner, research director at geopolitical consultancy Marlow Global. AFP.

But poor results in last year's general election fractured the opposition and prompted the pro-Kurdish DEM party – the third party in parliament – to field its own candidates for next week's local elections.

This could cost the opposition dearly.

“The political opposition's underperformance in the May 2023 elections demonstrated its inability to effectively challenge the political status quo and, by extension, Erdogan's resilience and ingenuity,” Skinner said.

In 2019, the CHP's Imamoglu received support from a wide range of political parties, including the right-wing IYI, Kurds and socialists opposed to Erdogan.

But the lack of unity this time risks costing Imamoglu several percentage points.

“The biggest prize”

Erdogan leads the AKP campaign and its meetings are broadcast daily on television, while opposition candidates have little air time.

Instead, they use social media.

The Erdogan government's inability to control soaring inflation of 67 percent could harm his candidate Kurum's chances.

“We will open the door to a new era on March 31,” Erdogan said Sunday at a large rally in Istanbul, hoping to unite supporters behind Kurum.

“We will work hard and win back Istanbul.”

Berk Esen, associate professor at Istanbul's Sabanci University, described Istanbul as “the biggest prize in Turkish politics.”

He said winning back the city was extremely important for Erdogan, 70, who has declared these March local elections would be his last.

“Obviously, it’s his town,” Esen said. “But it goes further.”

“Istanbul is a city with enormous municipal resources that provides services to 16 million citizens,” he said.

Opinion polls suggest it will be a close affair.

But Erman Bakirci, of polling firm Konda, insisted Imamoglu was “ahead” in Istanbul and suggested there could be “a gap between (opinion) polls and actual results elections.”

Osman Nuri Kabaktepe, the leader of the AKP in Istanbul, said AFP that Istanbul was crucial because it is “our gateway to the world”, compared to the importance of New York and Berlin.

In the capital Ankara, CHP mayor Mansur Yavas appears to be leading in the polls.

But “a very close race” could be at play, said political communications expert Eren Aksoyoglu, adding that the AKP's nationalist allies were “putting all their weight into the battle.”

Observers say the DEM party – accused by authorities of having links to banned Kurdish activists – will sweep major cities in the Kurdish-majority southeast, including Diyarbakir.

But Aksoyoglu said some voters may be disappointed with the political system after 52 southeastern mayors elected in 2019 on the HDP (now DEM) list were replaced by state-appointed administrators.