Politics
Five things to expect from a Prabowo presidency
The Indonesian Election Commission has reportedly confirmed Prabowo Subiantos' victory in the first round of the Indonesian presidential election, giving him a majority and avoiding any second round. His opponents are contesting the results, but they have little chance of success. Prabowo will therefore be the next Indonesian president.
Given his rise, here are five brief developments to watch during a Prabowo presidency:
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- As previously noted, Prabowo had historically disdained Indonesia's democratic development and, in previous campaigns, had presented himself as a strongman who would solve Indonesia's problems himself. Yet during the election campaign he presented himself as radically changed. Which Prabowo will run for president?
- To what extent does Prabowo adhere to the politics and policies of his predecessor, Joko Widodo, commonly known as Jokowi. He basically presented himself as Jokowi's successor and has Jokowi's son as vice president. But once in power, Prabowo is expected to quickly abandon many of his claims that this is only Jokowi's third term. Although he may retain many of Jokowi's popular welfare and development programs and even expand them, Jokowi's influence over him will significantly diminish now, especially in areas like foreign policy, where Prabowo has anyway much more experience than Jokowi.
- The role of the army. Under Jokowi, the military had already been allowed to play a much larger role in Indonesian domestic politics than at any time since the Suharto era, a dangerous direction in Indonesian domestic affairs. Prabowo, an army man (although he has been fired by the military in the past), is likely to continue Jokowi's leadership and give the armed forces even greater roles in shaping the domestic policy.
- Prabowo is even more of a resource nationalist than Jokowi, so it will be interesting to see how he manages Indonesia's crucial nickel sector. Under Jokowi, the country had been very reluctant to grant foreign investors major access to the nickel sector. Even if Prabowo wants to court foreign investment, the nickel sector is particularly important and Prabowo, even more than Jokowi, will likely want to ensure that Indonesia does not just export raw materials but takes greater advantage of the nickel value chain. Prabowo will almost certainly ensure that the nickel is mined and processed in Indonesia.
- How will Prabowo manage ASEAN and in particular its new member, Timor Leste? It would be shocking if even a man as resilient and forgiving as José Ramos Horta did not blanch at the thought of dealing with Prabowo at ASEAN meetings, even though (before Prabowo) Indonesia favored ASEAN membership. Timor-Leste to ASEAN.
Safer:
Indonesia
South East Asia
Elections and voting
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