Erdogan critic Imamoglu faces tough fight for re-election as Istanbul mayor

As Turkey prepares for local elections on Sunday, Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu addressed the crowd gathered in a small square in the working-class Kasimpasa district.

Chief again! My leader is here, shouted members of the crowd, bundled up against the cold in scarves and hats. Against a backdrop of political party flags, many then queued to receive free meals distributed from a van.

Competition is tough for the post of mayor of Istanbul, which President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, 70, and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) are determined to win back after losing it to Mr Imamoglu, 52 years old, and in the Republican People's Party, an opposition party. (CHP) during the last local elections of 2019.

The mayor of Istanbul plays one of the most important roles in Turkey, being responsible for the country's cultural and financial center and a multibillion-dollar budget.

In recent weeks, many museums, parks and subway lines have opened, and promotional banners promising tougher action on everything from bus services to tackling domestic violence have been placed in every public space .

Mr Imamoglu, a candidate for a second term, and the AKP candidate, former minister Murat Kurum, are competing to claim responsibility for improving services for urban centers of 16 million people, a time of double-digit inflation and widespread economic hardship. .

Istanbul's importance means whoever runs the city can establish a significant power base, observers say. If Mr. Imamoglu is re-elected mayor, he could well run in the next Turkish presidential elections scheduled for 2028.

Whoever runs Istanbul is usually able to establish a political base, which then translates into nationwide power, said Sinan Ulgen, a former Turkish diplomat and director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank.

The vote has national consequences for whoever wins. Yet mayoral candidates and those running for smaller district municipalities campaign on local issues.

In Fatih district, which includes Istanbul's historic, tourist-heavy peninsula, CHP candidate Mahir Polat has pledged to build more earthquake-resistant homes and renovate a local bazaar.

So far, we have run an unconventional but very simple election campaign, focused only on local government issues in Fatih, Polat said in an interview at his campaign office last week.

This had serious consequences, unlike the policies of the AKP, which no longer give society much hope.

The National contacted Mr. Polat, the AKP's main competitor, for an interview, but did not receive a response.

For the post of Istanbul mayor, Mr Kurum and Mr Imamoglu are almost neck and neck in pollsters' predictions, and few are willing to publicly call for a vote for Istanbul.

The electorate is polarized and a growing number of disillusioned young people are disengaged from voting in a country where politics is almost a national sport, observers say.

The problem with young voters, unfortunately, in today's Turkey is that they either go to the far left, the far right, or they lose interest in politics, said Gulsen Ergun, board member of Vote and Beyond, a civil society group encouraging participation in democratic elections. process.

Voters in Istanbul cite high levels of immigration, traffic congestion and fears that the city is unprepared for a major, long-predicted earthquake as their main concerns.

You Europeans came to our country with all the garbage of the Middle Easterners and we are feeding them, said Tuna Ozturk, who attended Mr. Imamoglus Kasimpasa's rally, and spoke of Western countries financing aid programs to refugees in Turkey.

They [refugees] get free medicine and help. Today we can't buy aspirin at the pharmacy if we don't have money.

His fears reflected a widely held belief in Turkey, rarely based in truth, that refugees receive better services from authorities than Turkish citizens.

Supporters of Erdogan and the AKP are not happy either. Voters attending a rally organized by Mr Kurum and Mr Erdogan this weekend at Istanbul's old airport complex said they had been disappointed by five years of opposition rule in the city.

I will vote for Murat Kurum because I think he will work hard, said Dorsun Ergun, 51, a leatherworker from Istanbul's Zeytinburnu district. The current mayor [Imamoglu] does not work and it has not kept its promises.

Both candidates face many challenges. Mr. Imamoglu is part of a divided national opposition against Mr. Erdogan and the AKP.

Other parties, including the pro-Kurdish DEM party and the nationalist Good Party, are fielding their own candidates in the mayoral election, which could split the anti-AKP vote and reduce Mr Imamoglu's chances of re-election.

Meanwhile, Mr Kurum could suffer as disillusioned AKP voters turn to more conservative parties such as the New Islamist Welfare Party.

He was also criticized during the campaign for his lack of charisma and made gaffes during media interviews, such as admitting to driving a car without a license.

What could hurt the AKP is if Erdogan is not on the ballot and he has a unique ability to mobilize people, said Orcun Selcuk, a political scientist.

If the opposition loses in Istanbul, it is because of its fragmentation. If Kurum loses, it could also be due to the New Social Party candidate.

For an election in which he is not even running, Mr. Erdogan campaigned almost non-stop for weeks, speaking at rallies across Turkey.

Mr Erdogan attracted attention earlier this month when he claimed Sunday's vote would be the last election he would attend as president, suggesting he would retire from politics within the next five years.

Under Turkey's constitution, a president cannot run for more than two terms, although a loophole allows for a third if parliament calls for elections.

The allusion to the end of his political career may have been a strategy to try to encourage AKP voters to go to the polls, at a time when it is still unclear who will lead the party when M Erdogan will finally retire from politics.

The president, rather than mayoral candidate Mr Kurum, appeared to be the main draw for many at the AKP weekend rally.

We will stand by President Erdogan until the end; we know he is with us, not just today, but always, said Aisha Koc, 44, a public relations officer. In other places the people follow their leader, but here they follow us. He does what we want him to do.

Sinan Ulgen, the Turkish analyst, says it is unlikely that Istanbul will witness a repeat of the 2019 local elections, when the AKP contested Imamoglus' victory at the polls. This resulted in a second round of voting in which Imamoglu won again by a larger margin.

I don't think we'll see that again, Mr. Ulgen said. This mistake was made once.

Additional reporting by Kerem Yalciner

Updated: March 26, 2024, 3:20 a.m.