Battle for Istanbul: Mayor Imamoglu seeks to overturn Erdogan's grip in crucial local vote

Turkish opposition attempts to repeat rare victory by retaining country's largest city

National local elections will take place on Sunday in Türkiye. The top prize, Istanbul, is seen as a bellwether for the opposition's chances of seizing power from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in four years.

Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglus' surprise victory over ally Erdogan in 2019 made him one of the country's most popular politicians. He inflicted his biggest defeat on the Turkish president since coming to power.

The country's largest city is also its economic engine, and the outcome is expected to have a major influence on Turkey's future: it will either encourage Imamoglu to become a fierce challenger to the ruling party in the 2028 presidential election, or he will put an end to all his possible ambitions. lead the country and sow disarray in the opposition.

Ilhan Uzgel, vice president for foreign affairs of the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), told The Media Line that the race in Istanbul holds particular value for Erdogan.

He wants to restore its prestige, this has both psychological and symbolic meaning for Erdogan, and it is important who controls Istanbul in Turkish politics, so Erdogan wants it back.

Imamoglu faces Murat Kurum, a former member of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's cabinet.

Both sides focused on improving the city's infrastructure and strengthening preparations in case of a feared earthquake.

The Turkish president launched into the electoral campaign of Kurum, his former Minister of the Environment. He criticized the CHP for squandering public funds, while highlighting the extensive construction projects the city has benefited from under his party's leadership.

They don't understand Istanbul or its people, but we are committed to the same principle that we had 30 years ago, and we will continue to serve our people, Erdogan said at a rally last weekend in Istanbul.

The result should be tight. A Metropoll poll earlier this month gave Imamoglu a 2 percent lead.

The biggest challenge for the CHP is winning with a divided opposition.

The Good Party and the pro-Kurdish Party for People's Equality and Democracy (DEM) have candidates running in these elections, compared to 2019, when the groups refused to field anyone who explicitly or tacitly supported Imamoglu .

In 2019, the CHP also won the Turkish capital, Ankara, which should be easier for the opposition to win.

Besides the collapse of the opposition alliance, another risk for the CHP is that it is led by a new and unproven president, Zgur zel.

zel was booed by residents of the earthquake-hit city of Hatay while with the city's mayor, fellow CHP member Lutfu Savas, due to anger over his response to disaster.

However, the right-wing vote also risks dividing the AKP and the New Welfare Party, a far-right Islamist group that has allied itself in the past with Erdogan's party.

Cem Akmakl, assistant professor of economics at Istanbul's Koc University, told The Media Line that the elections could have a long-term impact on the country's finances due to their potential influence on the upcoming presidential elections.

If Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) regains power in the city, it would mean the party's economic policies could last beyond 2028.

The Turkish president has been accused of undermining the central bank and supporting unorthodox economic principles, such as keeping interest rates low during a time of soaring inflation.

Although there has been a return to more orthodox policies since Erdogan's re-election last year, how long this trend will last is uncertain.

The ruling party advocates an economic policy and this policy has not succeeded in the last three years, Akmakl said.

He believes that the CHP represents a more rational economic mentality and institution-based policies, while the AKP's policies are based on the president's views.

As mayor, Imamoglu boosted tourism with cultural renovations in the city, improved infrastructure, making it easier to travel to work, and increased child care support, making it easier for women to enter in the labor market, said akmakl.

Turkey's most populous city carries particular weight for Erdogan.

He grew up in a conservative working-class neighborhood in the center of the city and his political career began as mayor.

Whoever wins Istanbul will win Turkey.

Before his party lost control, the Turkish president declared: Whoever wins Istanbul will win Turkey.

CHP Uzgel said the elections show this as well, especially as power is more centralized with the president's office.

This shows that power can change hands democratically through elections, and it somehow balances Erdogan's power, Uzgel said.

It is crucial that the opposition retains the districts it controls after 2019; otherwise, there will be no checks and balances in this country.