Democrats launch a simple attack on abortion: that's what Donald Trump did

In a meeting with her staff last week, Vice President Kamala Harris made a prediction: Former President Donald J. Trump would not support a national ban on abortion. Instead, she said, he would take a position that muddied the waters on an issue that she said could be deeply damaging to his campaign.

We must make him understand this, she told her colleagues.

Days later, as rumors swirled that a court ruling was coming on Arizona's abortion ban, Ms. Harris demanded that an event in Tucson on student loans should instead focus on right to abortion, according to three Democratic officials close to the matter, who spoke on the subject. on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

On Tuesday, Arizona's highest court upheld an 1864 law banning nearly all abortions. And on Friday, in front of more than 100 abortion rights activists and supporters, Ms. Harris plans to deliver a simple message: blame Donald Trump.

From campaigns for state legislatures to the race for the White House, Democrats have united around a central message: protecting what remains of abortion access in the United States, as well as the availability of long-established reproductive health measures, such as contraception and fertility treatments.

The Democratic effort underscores how the Supreme Court's 2022 decision ending federal abortion rights has reshaped American politics. Four years ago, Joseph R. Biden Jr. rarely mentioned abortion rights during his general election campaign, fearing the issue could alienate moderate voters and not sufficiently energize his base. Today, after the failure of Roe v. Wade, abortion rights are at the heart of his re-election campaign, the first time a US presidential campaign has focused so intensely on women's reproductive health.

After largely abandoning efforts to characterize economic progress under the banner of Bidenomics, the president's team found a simpler, easier-to-understand slogan to use wherever states restrict abortion.

Donald Trump did it, reads the final shot of one of the campaign's new abortion ads.

That message, Democrats say, was reinforced by the Arizona abortion ruling. This state is just the most important of dozens where abortion is expected to remain front and center in November, between continued bans on the procedure, the constant beating of court rulings and the painful personal stories of women affected by the restrictions , and ballot measures asking voters whether to expand rights and access.

The more we see these examples, more and more people are like, Oh my God, this could happen to my family. This could happen to someone I love, said Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, Mr. Biden's campaign chair. We believe that when basic rights are taken away, this is not an issue that people will forget.

This week, Democrats rallied around abortion rights in races from coast to coast. In Florida, former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, a Senate candidate, began a Florida Freedom Tour after a Florida Supreme Court ruling last week allowing a six-week ban on abortion. In North Carolina, two women who experienced life-threatening complications after being denied an abortion in their home state appeared at Biden campaign events.

Spanish-language signs erected in Phoenix and Tempe blamed Mr. Trump for the Arizona ban, and billboards in swing House districts from California to Texas accused Republicans of voting against treatments such as in vitro fertilization. And in Arizona, the Biden campaign announced a seven-figure investment in ads focused on reproductive rights.

Lots more is planned for the coming weeks. The Biden campaign is sketching out plans to campaign around notable and much lesser-known anniversaries over the next two months.

In May, he plans to mark the leak of a proposed Supreme Court decision overturning Roe and the anniversary of Nebraska's 12-week abortion ban. June will mark the anniversaries of the Supreme Court's 1965 decision in Griswold v. Connecticut, which legalized contraception for married couples, and the decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization that ended the constitutional right to abortion.

Biden campaign aides believe this issue could tip the presidential race in their favor, not only in Arizona, but also in North Carolina, which a Democrat last won in 2008. Even Florida could eventually be in play, they suggest, despite its recent shift to the right. .

Abortion bans in places like Florida could have national ramifications, Biden campaign aides say. Florida and Arizona are not seen as socially conservative like some of the Southern states that banned the procedure before the Supreme Court's ruling, these aides say, and their tighter restrictions will help illustrate the widespread impact of the decision of the courts.

People are keenly aware that this might be Arizona today, but in an election or two it could happen in your neighborhood, said Lt. Gov. Austin Davis of Pennsylvania, a Democrat. It's definitely something I hear on the road and people come up and talk about.

Not everyone agrees: Some within the Biden campaign worry that focusing on abortion could lead him to neglect other issues on which the president has more difficulty winning approval, including inflation, immigration and this week student debt.

Molly Murphy, a Biden pollster, said abortion rights were particularly motivating for young voters, whom Mr. Biden has struggled to energize. But she said the issue resonates far beyond them, reaching much of the party's voting base, including white women without college degrees, Latino women and suburban voters.

I think we can't talk about it enough, she said. In fact, I haven't seen any groups where this falls flat.

Polls have shown that a large majority of voters think abortion should be fully or mostly legal and that more voters trust Mr. Biden than Mr. Trump on the issue. In a recent survey conducted by KFF, a nonprofit group focused on health policy, 12% of voters said abortion was the most important issue when voting in 2024. This is a significant change from 2020, when a greater proportion of self-described pro-life voters were more likely to say the issue was important to their vote than self-described pro-choice voters.

On Wednesday, Mr. Trump distanced himself from the Arizona law and speculated that Florida's six-week ban would probably, just maybe, change. He continued to defend the position he took in a video statement Monday, when he said abortion laws should be left up to individual states.

Still, Democrats believe Mr. Trump will not be able to escape blame for the appointment of the three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe, which he often considers an achievement major part of his presidency. Democrats are also exploiting this strategy against other Republican candidates by highlighting their past support for legislation that would restrict, or even eradicate, abortion rights.

It has moved from an abstract fear that women might lose their right to make their own health care decisions to the reality that they have already lost it, said Josh Stein, the Democratic candidate for the position. as governor of North Carolina, who signed a 12-week abortion ban last time. year. Add to that the fact that we are now the southernmost state in which abortion remains legal, and it becomes even more concerning.

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has identified 18 competitive races in states where measures expanding abortion rights are likely to appear on the ballot in November. There are also at least five competitive Senate races in states where advocates are working to put abortion issues on the November ballot, including in Florida, where Mr. Trump resides. On Wednesday, he dodged a question about how he would vote on the issue.

Democrats can run on a unifying message, from state legislative elections to the Senate to the presidential campaign, said Ben Wikler, chairman of the Wisconsin Democratic Party, which has helped liberals run winning a crucial state Supreme Court election last year. This creates the possibility of a surround sound campaign.

Many Democrats believe their most powerful message comes from women directly affected by state bans. Democratic strategists for the Biden campaign and congressional candidates plan to feature more stories of women giving heartbreaking testimonies about losing their pregnancies and facing dire medical consequences when they were denied abortion care .

Even some Democratic candidates have started sharing stories about their own abortions that would have been considered too politically charged just two years ago. On Thursday, Lucia Bez-Geller, a Democrat running for Congress in a South Florida district held by a Republican, wrote about her decision to terminate a nonviable pregnancy at 12 weeks in an opinion essay published in the Miami Herald. Under the six-week ban, which is expected to come into effect on May 1, such a procedure will become more difficult, if not impossible, to obtain.

There is definitely increased attention to this topic, and I feel like my story is just one of many, Ms. Bez-Geller said in an interview. And I think my story will pale in comparison to the ones we hear when this ban goes into effect.

Michael Gold contributed reporting.

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